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  • CMP : 1,224.7 Chg : 5.10 (0.42%)
  • Target : 1,000.0 (21.07%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

22 Oct 2022

Strong performance beating estimates…

About The Stock

Axis Bank is the third largest private sector bank in India with a balance sheet size of ₹ 11.8 lakh crore as on September 2022.

  • The bank has a large footprint across India with 4760 branches
  • Retail and SME comprise ~69% of total loans
Q2FY23

Healthy growth & uptick in NIM boosted earnings.

  • Loan growth at 17.6% YoY to ₹ 7.3 lakh crore. Retail book up 22% YoY
  • NII up 31% YoY, 10.4% QoQ, NIMs up 36 bps QoQ to 3.96%
  • Steady opex led to decline in CI ratio; provisions at 38 bps (annualised)
  • GNPA down 26 bps QoQ to 2.5%. R/s book was at 0.38% of GCA
What should Investors do?

Axis Bank’s stock has given ~1.7x returns over past two years. Focus on risk adjusted business growth and improving margin trajectory to aid return ratios and sustainability of performance to drive valuation ahead. Raise estimates for FY23E, FY24E by 24%, 11.4%, respectively.

  • We retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We maintain our multiple at 2.3x FY24E ABV and revise our target price from ₹ 970 to ₹ 1000.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Focus on risk adjusted business & unsecured segment to aid growth
  • Improvement in business mix & faster asset repricing to aid yields. However, acceleration in deposit mobilisation to keep margins at current level
  • Efforts to keep cost to asset at 2-2.5% and adequate cumulative provisions of 160% of GNPA provide comfort on earnings volatility
  • RoA at 1.8% in Q2FY23; sustenance of performance to aid re-rating
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Axis, in our coverage we also like Kotak Bank.

  • Kotak Mahindra Bank is a powerful banking franchise with strong promoter led management. It has a presence across financial services value chain
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2200

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR (FY19-22) FY22E FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
NII 25,206.2 29,239.1 33,132.2 15.1 33,132.2 40,543.5 47,577.0 19.8
PPP 23,438.1 25,702.2 24,742.0 9.2 24,742.0 29,600.3 34,733.8 18.5
PAT 1,627.2 6,588.5 13,025.5 40.7 13,025.5 20,278.5 22,381.2 31.1
ABV (|) 267.9 308.8 347.8 - 347.8 408.2 434.8 -
P/E 143.2 38.4 19.5 - 19.5 12.5 11.3 -
P/ABV 3.1 2.7 2.4 - 2.4 2.0 1.9 -
RoA 0.2 0.7 1.2 - 1.2 1.6 1.6 -
RoE 2.1 7.1 12.0 - 12.0 16.3 16.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 10,360 8,967 7,900 31.1 9,384 10.4 Driven by healthy business accretion & NIM expansion
NIM (%) 3.96 3.80 3.39 57 bps 3.60 36 bps Effective transmission of rate hike & reduction in RIDF investment
Other Income 3,941 4,002 3,798 3.8 2,999 31.4 Retail fee income up 28% YoY and 10% QoQ
               
Net Total Income 14,301 12,969 11,699 22.2 12,383 15.5  
Staff cost 2,167 2,236 1,936 11.9 2,186 -0.9  
Other Operating Expenses 4,419 4,602 3,835 15.2 4,310 2.5 C/I down ~650 bps QoQ to 46%
               
PPP 7,716 6,131 5,928 30.2 5,887 31.1  
Provision 550 536 1,735 -68.3 359 53.0 Annualized credit cost for Q2FY23 at 0.38%
PBT 7,166 5,595 4,193 70.9 5,528 29.6  
Tax Outgo 1,837 1,399 1,060 73.3 1,402 31.0  
PAT 5,330 4,196 3,133 70.1 4,125 29.2 Healthy NII and steady provision boosted PAT
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 19,894 21,492 24,149 -17.6 21,037 -5.4 Slippages slightly lower than previous quarter
NNPA 3,996 4,320 7,200 -44.5 4,781 -16.4  
Credit 7,30,875 7,14,977 6,21,719 17.6 7,01,130 4.2 Retail & SME contributed to YoY growth
Deposit 8,10,807 8,09,914 7,36,286 10.1 8,03,572 0.9 CASA growth higher than overall deposit trajectory

 

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Witnessed market share gain in SME segment, industry leading performance in cards business and acceleration on digital banking outcomes
  • Government business performance remains strong. It continues to add new mandates and gain market share. This also gives confidence about continued traction and sustainable CA balances
  • NIMs trajectory to be maintained at current levels led by improvement in business mix, higher yields and asset repricing
  • The bank is expected to see steady opex as investments have already been made and benefit to come on revenue side going ahead. The management has guided opex to asset ratio of around 2%
  • MTM was largely from corporate book and the bank does not expect any economic loss on this book
  • Covid provisions of | 5012 crore are not included in CRAR calculation, providing cushion of 55 bps. The bank holds cumulative provisions of
    | 11625 crore. Has not utilised Covid provisions in Q2FY23. Outstanding provision at ~23% on restructured loans
  • Recoveries from written off accounts were up 32% at | 709 crore. No sale to ARC during Q2FY23
  • Also, 68% of loans are floating (39% repo linked, 22% MCLR linked, 32% is fixed). Substantial floating rate book makes transmission of rate faster
  • SME segment has a granular business across multiple sector and multiple geographies. The management sees no concerns in terms of asset quality in SME sector
  • In corporate segment, the bank’s focus will be on Indian corporates that have international presence.
  • Also, ~10.4 lakh credit cards issued during Q2FY23 while incremental share in spends was at 13%
  • Citi bank integration – CCI approval is in place. Expect to complete the transaction by end of Q4FY23. The progress is trending in line with expectations. Decision on capital raising to be taken post completion of acquisition

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.          

 

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