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Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd>
  • CMP : 572.5 Chg : -5.20 (-0.90%)
  • Target : 790.0 (51.63%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

08 Aug 2022

Uptick in ethanol volume, debt reduction to lift earnings

About The Stock

Avadh Sugar has 31800 TCD sugarcane crushing capacity 325 KLD distillery capacity & 74 MW saleable power capacity. The company produces 6.0 lakh tonnes (lt) of sugar, 8 crore litre of ethanol & 15 crore units of saleable power.

  • The company has increased its distillery capacity from 240 KLD to 325 KLD with a capex of Rs 135 crore. This would help it increase its annual ethanol production to 11 crore litre
Q1FY23 Results

Avadh reported sales growth of 11.2% led by strong ethanol sales

  • Sales up 11.2% to Rs 688.1 crore led by 47.3% growth in ethanol revenues
  • EBITDA was at Rs 64.2 crore, down 8.3% YoY, with margins at 9.3%
  • Consequent PAT was Rs 19.7 crore (up 3.9%) impacted by dip in EBITDA
What should Investors do?

Avadh share price has gone up by 46% in the last five years (from Rs 355 in August 2017 to Rs 521 in August 2022).

  • We expect 15.7% CAGR in distillery volumes to boost overall earnings with CAGR of 29.8% during FY22-24E
  • We continue to maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 790, valuing the business at 8x FY24 PE

Key triggers for future price performance
  • The company has added 80 KLD distillery capacity with the capex of Rs 135 crore, which would increase its distillery volumes to 11 crore litres. Avadh would be maximising B-heavy & Sugarcane Juice ethanol production
  • Avadh is also undertaking de-bottlenecking operations, which would increase its operational efficiency & improve profitability
  • Sugar inventory has fallen from 14.5 million tonnes (MT) in September-2019 to 8.2 MT in September 2021, which would further fall to 5.7 MT by September 2022. This would keep sugar prices benign above Rs 35/kg
  • With the inventory liquidation in next one year and boost in profitability, the company would be able to de-leverage its balance sheet. We expect debt reduction of Rs 480 crore between FY22 and FY24E
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Dwarikesh Sugar in our sugar coverage.

  • The company is one of the most efficient companies with highest sugar recovery & abundant sugarcane availability. It is increasing its distillery capacity to 2x by FY24E
  • We value the stock at Rs 150/share with BUY recommendation

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 CAGR % (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income 2,559.4 2,710.5 2,743.7 44.4 2,919.4 2,967.8 - 4.0
EBITDA 261.4 259.3 302.8 -6.7 377.3 409.2 - 16.3
EBITDA Margin % 10.2 9.6 11.0 - 12.9 13.8 - -
Net Profit 88.6 77.6 124.4 -9.4 180.6 209.6 - 29.8
EPS (Rs) 44.3 38.8 62.2 -9.4 90.3 104.8 - 29.8
P/E 11.8 13.4 8.4 - 5.8 5.0 - -
RoNW % 15.0 11.7 15.4 - 18.6 18.3 - -
RoCE (%) 10.6 11.5 12.5 - 16.0 18.6 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q1FY23 Results: Ethanol volume growth, interest reduction to boost profitability

  • Consolidated sales grew 11.2% to Rs 688.1 crore led by 10.1% growth in sugar & 47.3% growth in distillery segment
  • Sugar sales volume dipped 6.6% to 1.38 lt on account of lower sugar exports during the quarter. Its domestic sugar sales quota was up 1.2% to 1.17 lt. Exports volume during the quarter were 0.21 lt against 0.32 lt in corresponding quarter last year. Sugar realisation was up 6.4% to Rs 34.7/kg. The company is holding sugar inventory of 2.4 lt as of June 2022 valued at Rs 32.5/kg
  • Distillery revenue growth of 47.3% was led by 41% increase in distillery volumes & 4.5% increase in distillery realisation. Distillery volumes were 2.7 crore litre, which included 0.5 crore litre ethanol produced from sugarcane juice. Average distillery realisation was up 4.5% to Rs 60.5 / litre. Power sales increased 10.8% to Rs 35.3 crore. Power volumes were flat at 2.3 crore units & average realisation was up by 4% to Rs 3.21 / unit
  • Operating profit declined 8.3% to Rs 64.2 crore given cost of production in 2021-22 sugar season was higher by Rs 3/kg due to increase in sugarcane prices & lower sugar recovery rate
  • Interest cost dipped 23.4% to Rs 21.4 crore mainly on account of Rs 277 crore reduction in debt in last one year. Net profit witnessed a growth of 3.9% to Rs 19.7 crore
  • Total debt for the company has declined by Rs 277 crore to Rs 1185 crore in the last one year. Further, the company has accelerated farmer payment in 2021-22 sugar season. Sugarcane farmer pending dues for the company were Rs 41 crore as on June 2022
  • Industry wise sugar production is expected at 35.9 million tonnes (MT) in 2021-22 sugar season. Moreover, expected sugar consumption of 27.5 MT & exports of 11 MT (government allowed 1 MT additional exports), sugar inventories are likely to come down to 5.7 MT by September 2022
  • The industry estimate sugar production of 35.5 MT in 2022-23 sugar season after 4.5 MT of sacrifice for ethanol diversion. Considering sugar consumption at 28 MT, India is required to exports 7-8 MT in 2022-23
  • Brazil sugar production is expected to increase by 1 MT to 33 MT. Thailand sugar production is also likely to increase by 1-2 MT. Given, India export availability is likely to dip by 3 MT, global raw sugar prices are likely to remain firm 18-20 cents /lb. Global refined white sugar prices are prevailing at Rs 41/kg (US$530 /tonnes)
  • Ethanol blending in the country has reached 10.17%. OMCs have contracted for 445 crore litre out of the total requirement of 459 crore litre for 2020-21 (December – October). Out of this total, OMCs have lifted 283 crore litre of ethanol till July 17, 2022. The government has also declared incentives for ethanol supply from June-November 2022 to the tune of Rs 1-2/litre depending on the feedstock (B-heavy, sugarcane juice)

Sugar industry saw higher cost of production in 2021-22 sugar season owing to increase in sugarcane prices and lower sugar recovery due to adverse weather conditions in UP. Moreover, sugar prices have risen ~6-7% covering the increase in cost of production partially. This has resulted in dip in sugar segment profitability. However, we believe sugarcane availability is likely to increase in UP & sugar recovery is expected to improve in 2022-23 season given introduction of newer sugarcane varieties & expected favourable weather conditions. Further, sugar companies are increasing their ethanol capacities significantly, which would accelerate sugarcane diversion towards ethanol. We expect 34% jump in distillery volumes for Avadh in FY23. Further, with the strong free cash flow generation, the company would be able to significantly repay its debt. We remain positive on the company’s ethanol revenue growth as well as debt reduction possibility in medium term. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with the revised target price of Rs 790 / share (earlier: Rs 890).


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