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Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd>
  • CMP : 591.8 Chg : 8.40 (1.44%)
  • Target : 890.0 (44.95%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

12 May 2022

Distillery volumes, de-leveraging to boost profits…

About the stock

Avadh Sugar has 31800 TCD sugarcane crushing capacity, 325 KLD distillery capacity & 74 MW saleable power capacity. The company produces 6.0 lakh tonnes (lt) of sugar, 8 crore litre of ethanol & 15 crore units of saleable power.

  • The company has increased its distillery capacity from 240 KLD to 325 KLD with a capex of Rs 135 crore. This would help it increase its annual ethanol production to 11 crore litre
Q4-FY22 Results

Avadh reported a 44% jump in ethanol sales in Q4FY22.

  • Sales was down 8.7% to Rs 758.7 crore impacted by lower sugar volumes
  • EBITDA was at Rs 84.9 crore, down 20.7% YoY, with margins at 11.2%
  • Consequent PAT was Rs 51.3 crore (down 9.3%) impacted by dip in EBITDA
What should Investors do?

Avadh’s share price has gone up by 177% in the last five years (from Rs 220 in July 2017 to Rs 614 in May 2021).

  • We expect 15.7% CAGR in distillery volumes to boost earnings with CAGR of 24.1% during FY22-24E
  • We continue to maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target price valuation

We value the stock at Rs 890, valuing the business at 8x FY24 PE

Key triggers for future price performance
  • The company has expanded distillery capacity by 80 KLD with a capex of Rs 135 crore, which has increased its distillery volumes to 11 crore. Avadh would be maximising B-heavy & sugarcane juice ethanol production
  • Industry wise Sugar inventory has fallen from 14.5 million tonnes (MT) in September 2019 to 8.2 MT in September 2021, which would further come down to below 7 MT by September 2022 owing to record exports. This would keep sugar prices firm
  • With the inventory liquidation in the next one year and boost in profitability, the company would be able to de-leverage its balance sheet. We expect debt reduction of Rs 760 crore between FY22 and FY24E
Alternate stock idea

We also like Dwarikesh Sugar in our sugar coverage.

  • The company is one of the most efficient companies with highest sugar recovery & abundant sugarcane availability. It is increasing its distillery capacity to 2x by FY24E
  • We value the stock at Rs 145/share with BUY recommendation

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 CAGR % (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income 2,559.4 2,710.5 2,743.7 44.4 2,969.8 3,043.7 - 5.3
EBITDA 261.4 259.3 302.8 -6.7 387.6 420.6 - 17.9
EBITDA Margin % 10.2 9.6 11.0 - 13.1 13.8 - -
Net Profit 88.6 77.6 124.4 -9.4 191.4 232.1 - 36.6
EPS (Rs) 44.3 38.8 62.2 -9.4 95.7 116.1 - 36.6
P/E 13.9 15.8 9.9 - 6.4 5.3 - -
RoNW % 15.0 11.7 15.4 - 19.5 19.7 - -
RoCE (%) 10.6 11.5 12.5 - 17.8 22.0 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY22 Results: Higher ethanol volumes, significant debt reduction to boost profits

  • Consolidated sales witnessed a dip of 8.7% to Rs 758.7 crore on account of dismal sugar sales. Sugar volumes were down by 21.3% to 1.65 lakh tonnes. The company received 0.98 lakh tonnes (lt) of domestic quota for the quarter against 1.2 lt in the corresponding quarter. Further, sugar exports volume was at 0.63 lt against 0.95 lt in the corresponding quarter. Sugar realisation was up 5.1% up to Rs 32.9 / kg. Annual sugar sale was at 6.2 lt (10% lower) at an average realisation of Rs 33.9.kg (6.4% higher)
  • Distillery sales were up by 44.5% led by increase in ethanol volumes along with higher realisation due to increasing proportion of B-heavy / sugarcane juice ethanol in the current sugar season. Most sugar millers are aggressively diverting sugarcane towards ethanol production
  • Distillery volume grew 37.5% to 2.2 crore litre on account of newly expanded capacities in current season. Distillery realisation was up 7.9% led by higher proportion of ethanol produced from sugarcane juice & B-heavy molasses. Out of the 2.2 crore litre of ethanol, 40% was B-heavy ethanol & 60% was sugarcane juice ethanol. The company sold 8.2 crore litre (31% higher) of ethanol in FY22
  • Co-generation volumes were up 4% to 7.07 crore units at an average tariff of 3.08 /unit. On a full year basis, power volumes were down 8.2% to 13.55 crore units at an average realisation of 3.07/unit
  • The company crushed 52.6 lt of sugarcane in FY22 against 57.8 lt in FY21. This was mainly on account of late start of crushing in the 2021-22 season due to unseasonal rains in October 2021. We believe the company would be crushing 56 lt for the season
  • Average sugar recovery was 10.27%, down 52 bps due to higher diversion towards ethanol during the season. However, on a like to basis, sugar recovery is down by ~30 bps due to unfavourable weather conditions in the current season
  • Operating profit was down 20.7% to Rs 84.9 crore on account of lower sugar sales & sustained fixed costs. With the increase in sugarcane prices in 2021- 22 & lower recovery rates, average cost of production has increased by Rs 3/kg for the company. Though sugar prices were higher by almost Rs 2/kg, it is still lower than cost increase during the quarter
  • Sugar prices have moved up by Rs 1-2 /kg from April-2022 onwards. Interest costs came down from Rs 27.9 crore to Rs 19.7 crore due to reduction in working capital requirement & benign interest rates. Net profit dipped by 9.3% to Rs 51.3 crore
  • On a full year basis, net profit increased 60.3% to Rs 124.4 crore on account of better sugar realisation, significant sugarcane diversion towards ethanol & reduction in interest costs. The company declared a Rs 10/share dividend for the year
  • In FY22, the company reduced its total debt by Rs 161 crore despite distillery capacity addition. Sugarcane dues came down by Rs 229 crore. Avadh’s overall liability has come down by Rs 394 crore during the year
  • Sugar inventories have come down by 0.95 lt to 2.9 lt. Closing inventory is valued at Rs 32.2/kg. With the aggressive exports & diversion towards ethanol, sugar inventories are likely to come down further by 0.9 lt by March 2024 (our estimate)
  • Industry wise sugar production is expected to 35.5 million tonnes (MT) in 2021-22 sugar season. Moreover, with expected sugar consumption of 27.8 MT & exports of 9.5 MT, sugar inventories are likely to come down to 6.5 MT by September 2022
  • Sugar crushing season for Brazil has started in April-2022. Given high crude prices, ethanol parity for sugar prices is ~21 cents / lb. Brazilian sugar industry is expected to divert 58% sugarcane towards ethanol (56% last season), which is likely to keep global sugar prices firm above 18 cents /lb

Terms & conditions and Other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal (MBA Finance) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

 

Pankaj Pandey                                                                         Head – Research                                                               pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 research@icicidirect.com

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