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Automotive Axles Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,890.0 Chg : 1.55 (0.08%)
  • Target : 2,375.0 (21.79%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

12 Aug 2022

Healthy performance; best placed to play CV upswing

About The Stock

Automotive Axles (AXL), est. in 1981 & is the largest independent manufacturer of rear axle drive assemblies in India (primarily for CVs; M&HCV).

  • As of FY20, Rear drive axles comprise ~60% of its top line with brakes share at ~20% and other parts comprising the rest.
  • It counts all major OEM’s as its clients in CV domain with prominent names being Ashok Leyland, VECV Commercial Vehicles, M&M among others
Q1FY23

The company reported healthy performance in Q1FY23

  • Total operating income for Q1FY23 came in at ₹500 crores, down 10% QoQ
  • EBITDA came in at ₹52 crores with margins at 10.3%, down 90 bps QoQ.
  • PAT for the quarter stood at ₹30 crores, down 22% QoQ
  • Management expects M&HCV volumes to grow ~25% in FY23E
What should Investors do?

AXL share price has increased at ~21% CAGR from
~₹ 734 in August 2017, thereby outperforming Nifty Auto index in that time.

  • We retain BUY given cyclical recovery in CV space (M&HCV domain) with AXL a key beneficiary and company doing tangible efforts on diversification of its client base (targeting construction equipment, defence space)  
Target Price and Valuation

Upgrading our estimates, we now value the company at revised target price of ₹2,375 i.e. 20x P/E on FY24E EPS (earlier TP ₹ 2,140).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With cyclical recovery in the domestic CV space, we expect sales to grow at a CAGR of ~27.3% in FY22-24E to ~₹ 2,415 crore in FY24E.
  • Technology support from ex-parent Meritor with capabilities in electric vehicle domain (E-Axel for heavy duty trucks). This coupled with new co-promoter i.e. Cummins intent to offer complete powertrain assembly solutions to its customers in the electric CV domain, bodes well for AXL
  • Healthy b/s (net cash positive) and consistent FCF cash generation.
  • O/p leverage gains to result in 11.5% margin, 20%+ return ratios by FY24E
Alternate Stock Ideas

Leaving aside AXL, in our auto OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,550

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 1,939.0 952.0 905.6 1,490.6 4.9 2,012.3 2,414.8 27.3
EBITDA 229.0 93.3 65.8 134.7 3.4 211.3 277.7 43.6
EBITDA Margins (%) 11.8 9.8 7.3 9.0 - 10.5 11.5 -
Net Profit 121.5 41.1 22.7 74.4 8.7 130.0 179.3 55.3
EPS (|) 80.4 27.2 15.0 49.2 - 86.1 118.7 -
P/E 24.2 71.6 129.7 39.6 - 22.7 16.4 -
RoNW (%) 22.6 8.0 4.6 12.0 - 18.3 21.4 -
RoCE (%) 29.9 10.1 5.2 15.5 - 23.6 27.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q1FY23 Results

  • For Q1FY23 total top line came at ₹500 crores down 10% QoQ. EBITDA for the quarter came in at ₹52 crores with margins at 10.3% down 90 bps QoQ. Consequently, PAT was at ₹30 crores down 22% QoQ.
  • Company’s quarterly performance out-performed volume growth at its key client. Savings were realised on the raw material front (down 50 bps QoQ) however negative operating leverage (other expenses up 150 bps QoQ) took a toll on overall margins.

Key Concall highlights

  • Management expects Q2FY23 to be marginally better than Q1FY23 with H2FY23 to be substantially better than H1FY23
  • AXL has entered into long term agreements (LTA) with Ashok Leyland for axles & brakes and Tata Motors for brakes
  • It expects exports to double by FY27-28E
  • 200-250 bps impact in margins due to commodity base effect wherein inflation in absolute sense is compensated by clients
  • It is presently engaging with OEM’s in the construction equipment space and sees this as a healthy diversification strategy
  • With Cummins Inc. on board it expects better roadway into Tata Motors (new programs)
  • AXL does not intent to spend on capacity increase and would rather incur marginal capex on process improvement, technology upgradation etc.
  • Management expects domestic M&HCV segment to witness a volume growth of ~25% in FY23E

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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