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Aurobindo Pharma Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,131.3 Chg : 27.90 (2.53%)
  • Target : 610.0 (12.96%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

31 May 2022

Muted performance amid price erosion, outlook for global specialty ramp up maintained…

About The Stock

Aurobindo is a significant global generics player with 28 manufacturing facilities, including eight key formulations facilities in India and abroad along with three R&D centres. The current employee strength is more than 8000, which includes more than 750 scientists.

  • FY22, API: formulations ratio was at 15:85. US formulations constitute 47% of revenues followed by Europe (28   %), APIs (15%), RoW (6%) & ARV (4%)
  • Aurobindo is setting up a plant for production of Penicillin-G with capacity of 15,000 MT for ₹ 1850 crore, under the PLI scheme
Q4FY22

Revenues were muted & below I-direct estimates, margins in line.

  • Revenues were down 3% YoY to ₹ 5809 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 974 crore, down 24% YoY with margins at 16.8%

Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 734.5 crore, down 8% YoY [note: profit is adjusted for one-off of ₹ 162.7 crore in Q4FY22]

What should Investors do?

Aurobindo’s share price has remained steady over the past five years (from ~₹ 574 in May 2017 to ~₹ 540 levels in May 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD due to 1) high single digit to low double-digit price erosion in US business (both OSD and injectable) as we await normalisation in upcoming quarters and 2) lack of triggers for growth in ex-US domain
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 610 at 12x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 51

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • As per IQVIA March, 2022, Aurobindo’s 727 ANDAs have an addressable US market size of ~US$135 billion
  • Aurobindo has one of the most enduring generics ecosystems among peers but recent cGMP related issues at some of the plants continue to weigh
  • The company plans to venture into complex areas like biosimilars, vaccines & complex injectables. Additionally, participation in the PLI scheme will enhance its backward integration in antibiotics, open new revenue streams
  • It engages in continuous US filings & launches, incremental launches and filings in the RoW markets along with site transfers and supplies for products covered under European deals
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Aurobindo, we like Dr Reddy in healthcare space

  • Dr Reddy’s is poised to grow on back of key launches across geographies with better margin profile due to cost rationalisation measures 
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 4110

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues (| crore) 19,563.5 23,098.5 24,774.6 23,455.5 9.2 24,940.8 26,997.3 7.3
EBITDA (| crore) 3,843.2 4,815.7 5,333.4 4,386.8 5.0 4,652.5 5,213.2 9.0
EBITDA margins (%) 19.6 20.8 21.5 18.7 - 18.7 19.3 -
Net Profit (| crore) 2,452.8 2,857.1 3,223.9 2,776.1 2.8 2,673.0 2,990.3 3.8
EPS (|) 41.9 48.8 55.0 47.4 - 45.6 51.0 -
PE (x) 13.4 11.2 5.9 11.9 - 11.8 10.6 -
EV/EBITDA (%) 9.4 7.1 5.8 6.8 - 6.1 5.2 -
ROE (%) 17.7 17.0 14.7 11.3 - 9.9 10.0 -
ROCE (%) 15.9 17.2 16.9 12.9 - 12.5 13.1 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Revenues miss estimates amid US price erosion increase

  • Aurobindo’s Q4FY22 revenues declined 3% YoY to | 5809 crore (I-direct estimate: | 5974 crore) amid a 4% YoY decline in US business to | 2728 crore (I-direct estimate | 2886 crore) and 52% YoY de-growth in ARV to
    | 236 crore (I-direct estimate: | 172 crore). Europe de-grew a mere 1% YoY to | 1541 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1608 crore) while RoW markets grew 28% YoY to | 391 crore (I-direct estimate | 382 crore). API segment posted robust growth of 15% YoY to | 913 crore (I-direct estimate | 913 crore)
  • EBITDA margins were down 447 bps YoY at 16.8% (I-direct estimate: 16.8%) mainly due to higher input cost. EBITDA de-grew 24% YoY to | 974 crore against I-direct estimates of | 1001 crore. Adjusted PAT de-grew 8% YoY to | 734 crore (I-direct estimate: | 558 crore). [note: profit is adjusted for one-off of | 162.7 crore in Q4FY22]
  • Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals’ Q4FY22 revenues were below I-direct estimates except for RoW markets and ARVs, while margins were in-line. Quarterly fluctuations notwithstanding, Aurobindo continue to see volume growth in the complex generics segment but having significant exposure to US generics OSD space, the company continues to face growth challenges in the US (Injectable business, although looks promising, accounts for less than 25% of US business) due to unprecedented pricing pressure. This, along with ongoing cGMP issues are some medium term overhangs for the company besides dwindling margins

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Average raw material price increased 9% during the quarter while freight cost increased 10%. On a full year basis, raw material increased 18% while freight cost increased 42% in FY22. Gross margins dipped to 54.3% in Q3FY22 due to high API sales as the product mix changed with lower APIs contribution, gross margins at 56.5%
  • Price erosion in the US for FY22 was 9% while for Q4FY22 was 11.5%. Aurobindo’s volumes in generics increased 6%. In the injectable business price erosion is in high single digit but it is expected to be offset by new launches. The management guided for double digit growth in injectable. The management guided for injectable filings from Vizag facility from second half of FY23 and likely revenues from FY24. Guidance reiterated by Aurobindo, for global specialty (includes onco OSD, Harmonal OSD, Sterile Injectable) sales of US$650-700 million by FY24. Global Specialty sales for FY22 was at US$438 million. Aurobindo launched 11 products in FY22 and guided for 15-20 launches in FY23. Margin profile for Injectable – Gross margins: 65-70% and EBITDA margins: 35-40%.
  • US revenue mix for Q4FY22: orals:67.2%, injectable:19.3%, branded oncology:7.5%, OTC:6.1%.
  • PLI project (~US$400 million over two years) would be funded through internal accruals. In addition, the management guided for capex of US$125 million in FY23
  • In Europe, there was some write off for Apotex business while the management indicated at more focus on margins in Europe business
  • About 45% of API is accounted for captive consumption where cost is absorbed, in rest 55% of external sales, ~70% of business passed on the hike in prices.
Variance Analysis

| crore Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 Q3FY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 5,809.4 5,974.2 6,001.5 6,002.2 -3.2 -3.2   YoY decline of on back off decline in US, Europe and ARVs 
Raw Material Expenses 2,524.2 2,731.4 2,407.1 2,744.2 4.9 -8.0    
Employee Expenses 853.2 864.9 854.4 868.9 -0.1 -1.8    
Other Expenditure 1,457.5 1,376.9 1,465.3 1,372.8 -0.5 6.2    
EBITDA 974.4 1,001.0 1,274.7 1,016.3 -23.6 -4.1   YoY decline amid high input cost and price erosion in US
EBITDA (%) 16.8 16.8 21.2 16.9 -447 bps -16 bps    
Interest  9.2 16.1 18.2 16.1 -49.5 -42.9    
Depreciation 253.6 299.1 266.0 299.1 -4.7 -15.2    
Other Income 48.9 64.7 78.1 65.0 -37.4 -24.8    
PBT before EO & Forex 760.5 750.5 1,068.6 766.1 -28.8 -0.7    
EO 162.8 0.0 -0.7 -34.8 NA NA   one-off of | 162.7 crore in Q4FY22
PBT 597.7 750.5 1,069.2 800.9 -44.1 -25.4    
Tax  17.5 185.6 259.7 189.5 -93.3 -90.8    
Tax Rate (%) 2.9 24.7 24.3 23.7 -2136 bps -2073 bps    
PAT before MI 580.3 564.9 809.6 611.4 -28.3 -5.1    
MI -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -20.0 NA    
Net Profit 576.5 557.9 801.6 604.7 -28.1 -4.7    
Adj. Net Profit 734.5 557.9 801.1 569.9 -8.3 28.9   Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA on count of lower depreciation, interest and tax expense.
Key Metrics                
US 2,728.0 2,885.8 2,856.0 2,745.2 -4.5 -0.6   US impaced by price erosion, ~11.5% impact of price erosion in Oral formulations for Q4FY22 while injectable business also witnessing high single digit price erosion
Europe 1,541.0 1,608.1 1,552.6 1,694.0 -0.7 -9.0   YoY decline amid some write-off for Apotex business
RoW 391.0 382.1 305.7 397.0 27.9 -1.5    
ARV 236.0 171.9 491.2 156.0 -52.0 51.3   YoY decline due to higher stocking on advanced procurement in base of last year
API 913.0 913.4 794.3 1,010.0 14.9 -9.6    

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