loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Aurobindo Pharma Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,131.3 Chg : 27.90 (2.53%)
  • Target : 525.0 (13.15%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

21 Feb 2023

Revenues beat but margins still below par..

About The Stock

Aurobindo is a significant global generics player with 28 manufacturing facilities, including eight key formulations facilities in India and abroad along with three R&D centres. The current employee strength is more than 8000, which includes more than 750 scientists.

  • Q3FY23: US formulations constitute (46.8%) of revenues followed by Europe (26.6%), APIs (14.9%), RoW (7.8%) & ARV (3.9%)
  • Aurobindo is setting up a plant for production of Penicillin-G with capacity of 15,000 MT for ₹ 1850 crore, under the PLI scheme
Q3FY23

Substantial revenue beat across regions. Margins in line.

  • Revenues grew 6.7% YoY to ₹ 6407 crore due to strong performance in the US as well as Europe
  • EBITDA de-grew 6.1% YoY to ₹ 954.5 crore while EBITDA margins de-grew 203 bps to 14.9%
  • Adjusted PAT declined 13.7% YoY to ₹ 492 crore  
What should Investors do?

Aurobindo’s share price has de-grown at a CAGR of 5.15% over the past three years.

  • We maintain HOLD as the US base business outlook is far from stable besides an elongated margin recovery due to pressure on GPM and higher R&D. Legacy cGMP and governance issues are expected to abate slowly
Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 525 at 10x P/E on FY25E EPS of ₹ 52.4.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Aurobindo has one of the most enduring generics ecosystems among peers but recent cGMP related issues at some plants continue to weigh
  • The company plans to venture into complex areas like biosimilars, vaccines & complex injectibles. Additionally, participation in the PLI scheme will enhance its backward integration in antibiotics, open new revenue streams
  • It engages in continuous US filings and launches, incremental launches and filings in RoW markets along with site transfers and supplies for products covered under European deals 
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides Aurobindo, we like Dr Reddy’s in healthcare space.

  • Dr Reddy’s is poised to grow on the back of key launches across geographies with better margin profile due to cost rationalisation measures
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 5210

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY25E)
Revenues (| crore) 23,098.5 24,774.6 23,455.5 9.2 24,730.5 26,956.0 29,276.0 8.8
EBITDA (| crore) 4,815.7 5,333.4 4,386.8 5.0 3,813.3 4,745.0 5,213.2 16.9
EBITDA margins (%) 20.8 21.5 18.7 - 15.4 17.6 17.8 -
Net Profit (| crore) 2,857.1 3,223.9 2,776.1 2.8 2,041.4 2,705.9 3,070.3 22.6
EPS (|) 48.8 55.0 47.4 - 34.8 46.2 52.4 -
PE (x) 9.6 5.1 10.3 - 13.3 10.0 8.9 -
EV/EBITDA (%) 6.2 5.0 5.8 - 6.5 4.9 4.0 -
ROE (%) 17.0 14.7 11.3 - 7.7 9.3 9.6 -
ROCE (%) 17.2 16.9 12.9 - 10.2 12.6 13.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: Substantial revenue beat propelled by major geographies

  • Revenues grew 6.7% YoY to | 6407 crore due to a strong performance in the US as well as Europe. EBITDA de-grew 6.1% YoY to | 954.5 crore while EBITDA margins de-grew 203 bps to 14.9%. Adjusted PAT declined 13.7% YoY to | 492 crore. US revenues grew 9.3% YoY to | 3001 crore with RoW growing a massive 25.7% YoY to | 499 crore. Europe was flat YoY at | 1701 crore
  • Revenue growth demonstrated decent traction both on a YoY and QoQ basis, especially in the US, which remains the core segment (47% contribution). However, EBITDA margins continue to trend at ~15% well, below the historic trend line of +20%, on account of higher R&D and other expenses. Progress on the injectable front besides addressing the lingering cGMP and governance issues is likely to weigh in the near future

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

Segmental drivers:

  • Overall, there was an improvement in momentum backed by a recovery across its business verticals during the quarter. US formulations contributed 46.8% followed by Europe 26.6%, Growth markets 7.8%, ARV 3.9%, API 14.9%. Price stability and volumes supported US business. Europe performance was mainly driven by increase in sales in France and Germany

Biosimilars:

  • There are three products in Phase 3 portfolio that are still under clinical trials
  • The product pipeline is maturing
  • Earlier total | 300 crore capex was earmarked for biosimilars from which most of the capex is over

Capex & R&D spends

  • Capex for the quarter was at | 415 crore, an incremental R&D spend of | 140 crore over the previous quarter. Biosimilar remained the main driver of such incremental R&D. This includes Phase 3 portfolio products
  • It made an investment of ~US$39 million in Penicillin G PLI project during Q3FY23
  • Major part of the capex was also incurred at its China plant where the installation part is over and exhibit batch testing is ongoing
  • The capex plans at the Vizag plant are going as per schedule

Launches

  • Injectable enjoyed one of the best quarters. Its launch rate includes five new products every quarter. The management has guided for more new launches, going forward
  • It experienced increased penetration in oral segment in US markets
  • The company launched 11 products including six injectables and filed 11 ANDAs including two injectables with USFDA in Q3FY23
  • It received USFDA approval for Osteoarthritis drug. The product is expected to be launched in Q1FY24

 

Other highlights

  • International business contributed 85% whereas domestic contributed 15% during the quarter
  • Q3 in Europe is always strongest due to seasonality factor
  • The management is escalating its Penicillin G project
  • It enjoyed better pricing in terms of logistics
  • Cost of debt 4%
  • Expects good cash flow to come in from projects from FY25 onwards. Penicillin G project & biosimilar projects to add fuel to cash flow generation
  • Focus remains to improve capacity utilisation and operational efficiency from API segment, which still remains the major cost contributor overall

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Siddhant Khandekar- Inter CA, Kushal Shah – CFA L1, CFP, Utkarsh Jain -MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research. 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More