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  • CMP : 2,785.7 Chg : -5.20 (-0.19%)
  • Target : 3,700.0 (17.98%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jul 2022

A comprehensive beat on all front…

About The Stock

Asian Paints (APL) is India’s largest decorative paint company. The company derives ~98% revenue from the paints business while 2% business comes from the home improvement business (kitchen and bathroom fittings).

  • Strong distribution network of 70,000 dealers, 2x more than the No. 2 player
  • Despite being in a capital intensive business, the company has maintained a strong balance sheet with RoCE, RoE of 30%, 25%, respectively
Q1FY23 Results

The Q1 performance was beat on all fronts…

  • Reported revenue growth of ~54% YoY to ~₹ 8607 crore on a favourable base and a strong decorative volume growth of 37%
  • Gross margin declined 73 bps YoY (100 bps QoQ). However, EBITDA margin up by 172 bps YoY to 18.1% due to improved operating leverage
  • PAT up by ~84% YoY to ₹ 1054 crore; tracking strong sales growth and margin expansion
What should Investors do?

Strong brand, market leadership position and a robust balance sheet condition justify APL’s premium valuation. APL has been a consistent compounder with stock price appreciating at 22% CAGR over the last five years.

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price & Valuation

We revise our target price to ₹ 3700/share and value APL at 65x P/E FY24E EPS

 

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Repainting represents ~80% of total decorative paint demand. Gradual reduction in repainting cycle would drive future paint demand
  • Increased focus on the ‘water proofing & building chemical’ category will continue to drive revenue growth for Asian Paints. Water proofing & building chemical industry is pegged at ₹ 6000 crore vs. ₹ 1.5 lakh crore in China
  • Model revenue, earnings CAGR of ~15%, ~33%, respectively, in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Supreme Industries in our coverage.

Supreme Industries (SIL) is India’s leading plastic processing company with a presence in four major segments including piping systems, packaging products, industrial products & consumer product. It is the market leader in the PVC pipe industry with a value market share of 15%. It has a robust balance sheet with RoE & RoCE of 24% & 27% (five-year average)

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2175

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 19,240.1 20,211.3 21,712.8 29,101.3 14.1 35,168.6 38,675.4 15.3
EBITDA 3,765.5 4,161.8 4,855.6 4,803.6 10.0 6,717.2 7,928.4 28.5
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.6 20.6 22.4 16.5 - 19.1 20.5 -
Net Profit 2,213.8 2,779.1 3,206.8 3,084.8 8.9 4,521.5 5,430.8 32.7
EPS (|) 23.1 29.0 33.4 32.2 - 47.1 56.6 -
P/E (x) 135.8 108.2 93.8 97.5 - 66.5 55.4 -
Price/Book (x) 31.8 29.7 23.5 21.8 - 20.1 17.7 -
Mcap/Sales (x) 15.6 14.9 13.9 10.3 - 8.6 7.8 -
RoE (%) 23.4 27.4 25.0 23.0 - 30.2 31.9 -
RoCE (%) 28.9 30.5 29.6 27.1 - 36.4 39.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Strong volume growth continues…

  • Asian Paints continued its volume growth trajectory with higher than our and street estimates. The company has reported strong decorative volume growth of 37% YoY in Q1FY23 even on a higher base of 106% growth last year. The volume growth came in on the back of strong demand from tier II and III cities, new dealer addition and launch of new products. Company’s project business also reported a strong growth in Q1FY23 (contributes ~20% of sales).
  • Consolidated revenue growth of ~54% YoY to ~| 8607 crore was led by paint and home segment revenue growth of 53% and 87% YoY to | 8380 crore and | 227 crore, respectively. The company has taken a price hike of ~2% in Q1FY23 (in addition to ~22% price hike in FY22) to offset higher raw material costs.
  • Gross margin declined 73 bps YoY (100 bps QoQ) in Q1FY23 suggesting a lower price hikes and adverse product mix (higher sales of low end of products). However, improved operating leverage helped negate the gross margin pressure on EBITDA margin which increased by 172 bps YoY to 18.1%
  • Despite one-time exceptional loss of | 24 crore (due to forex loss of Sri Lankan unit), APL reported a strong PAT growth of 84% YoY to ~| 1054 crore tracking strong sales and EBITDA margin expansion

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Demand Outlook: 

  • The management has maintained its double digit volume growth guidance for FY23-24E led by strong demand from tier III and IV cities and new product launches. 
  • The company’s B2B business (15-20% of sales) has gained traction in recent times owing to revival in real estate, housing, government and factories segment. The same momentum is expected to continue in the coming quarters 
  • Premium and Luxury product categories have shown a good growth in Tier 1 and 2 cities and the company plans to expand these product categories in collaboration with the Decorative Project team 

Expansion of product portfolio: 

  • Asian Paints launched 10 new products in Q1FY23 across categories

Margins: 

  • According to the management, the gross margin will remain at ~38-40% for the coming few quarters due to higher inflation and volatility in raw material prices. However, with easing crude and other raw material prices along with lowering inflation, the gross margin is expected to rise to ~42% 
  • The company will be taking a price increase of 0.5% on a portfolio level with effect from August 1, 2022 to offset higher input cost 
  • The management expects inflation rate to be at ~2% in Q2FY23 and is planning to take price hikes accordingly in the quarter 
  • The management expects raw material inflation to ease from second half of FY23. 

Network Expansion: 

  • The company added 5000 new retailing points in Q1FY23 
  • 31 Beautiful Home Stores have become operational  
  • Asian Paints has a total of more than 1,50,000 retail touch points and aims to add 5000-8000 touch points every year 
  • The company is planning to add touchpoints in the suburban areas of cities across India  

Other: 

  • Revenue growth in Q1FY23 was on the back of better-quality products, increased marketing efforts and higher retail reach 
  • Projects business contributed slightly higher to the volume growth than Retail business. Volume growth has largely come from higher sales pf premium and luxury products in the Emulsions and Waterproofing segment 
  • Although, all the regions of India have contributed to the volume growth of the company, higher volume growth was seen from South and West region in Q1FY23 
  • According to the management, there is no excessive stocking with the retailers 
  • The company has planned a Capex of | 800 crores for FY23 
  • The company’s new plant in Pune for its bath business is expected to be operational in Q4FY23 
Variance Analysis
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 8,606.9 7,335.8 5,585.4 54.1 7,892.7 9.0   Strong revenue growth led by 37% volume growth in decorative paint segment
Other Income 99.0 74.7 89.6 10.4 80.4 23.1    
                 
Raw Material Exp 5,361.9 4,474.8 3,438.9 55.9 4,838.1 10.8   Gross margin declined by 73 bps YoY (100 bps QoQ) led by change in product mix
Employee Exp 489.6 476.8 432.1 13.3 457.4 7.0    
Manufacturing & Oth exp 1,199.5 1,122.4 800.8 49.8 1,154.0 3.9    
Total Exp 7,051.0 6,074.0 4,671.8 50.9 6,449.4 9.3    
EBITDA 1,556.0 1,261.8 913.6 70.3 1,443.3 7.8    
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.1 17.2 16.4 172 bps 18.3 -21 bps   Lower gross margin impact was completely offset by savings in employee costs and other expenditure, helped EBITDA margin expansion on a YoY basis
Depreciation 208.1 214.4 200.6 3.7 205.1 1.5    
Interest 28.8 18.8 21.5 33.8 22.6 27.1    
Exceptional items 24.2 0.0   0.0       Exceptional loss includes exchange loss in Sri Lanka due to economic crisis
PBT 1,418.1 1,103.3 781.1 81.5 1,180.3 20.1    
Total Tax 370.6 277.7 204.3 81.4 315.1 17.6    
PAT 1,053.8 830.6 574.3 83.5 874.1 20.6   Higher topline and EBITDA margin expansion drives bottomline 
                 
Key Metrics                
Volume growth (%) 37.0 8.0 106.0   8.0     Continuous demand for decorative paints from Tier III and IV cities along with strong growth in waterproofing, wood finishes drives overall volume growth
Realisation growth (%) 12.5 21.6 -7.2   9.9     Lower realisation growth against price hike of ~21% in FY22 suggesting change in product mix

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