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  • CMP : 2,759.7 Chg : -26.0 (-0.93%)
  • Target : 3,400.0 (12.03%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 May 2022

Another good performance…

About The Stock:

Asian Paints (APL) is India’s largest decorative paint company. The company derives ~98% revenue from the paints business while 2% business comes from the home improvement business (kitchen and bathroom fittings).

  • Strong distribution network of 70,000 dealers, 2x more than the No. 2 player
  • Despite being in a capital intensive business, the company has maintained a strong balance sheet with RoCE, RoE of 31%, 27%, respectively
Q4FY22 Result:

The Q4 performance was ahead of our estimates on the revenue front. APL reported strong volume growth even on the higher base of last year.

  • Reported revenue growth of ~19% YoY to Rs. 7893 crore, supported by price hikes and decorative volume growth of 8%
  • Gross margin declined 448 bps YoY. However, savings in other expenses restricted the overall fall in EBITDA margin by 153 bps YoY to 18.3%

The company reported a flattish PAT of ₹ 874 crore due to lower margin and one-time exceptional loss of Rs. 116 crore

What should Investors do?

Strong brand, market leadership position and a robust balance sheet condition justify APL’s premium valuation. APL has been a consistent compounder with stock price appreciating at 22% CAGR over the last five years.

  • We change our rating on stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price Valuation:

We revise our target price to Rs. 3400/share and value APL at 65x P/E FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Repainting represents ~80% of total decorative paint demand. Gradual reduction in repainting cycle would drive future paint demand
  • Increased focus on the ‘water proofing & building chemical’ category will continue to drive revenue growth for Asian Paints. Water proofing & building chemical industry is pegged at Rs. 6000 crore vs. Rs. 1.5 lakh crore in China
  • Model revenue, earnings CAGR of ~14%, ~28%, respectively, in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea:

We like Supreme Industries in our coverage universe.

  • Supreme is market leader in plastic piping segment with ~14% market share. Robust b/s with average RoE, RoCE of 24%, 27%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of Rs. 2320

Key Financial Summary

(Rs# Crore) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 19,240.1 20,211.3 21,712.8 29,101.3 14.1 33,133.0 37,847.9 14.0
EBITDA 3,765.5 4,161.8 4,855.6 4,803.6 10.0 6,096.5 7,304.7 23.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.6 20.6 22.4 16.5 - 18.4 19.3 -
Net Profit 2,213.8 2,779.1 3,206.8 3,084.8 8.9 4,128.9 5,012.6 27.5
EPS (|) 23.1 29.0 33.4 32.2 - 43.1 52.3 -
P/E (x) 131.5 104.7 90.8 94.4 - 70.5 58.1 -
Price/Book (x) 30.7 28.7 22.7 21.1 - 20.0 18.0 -
Mcap/Sales (x) 15.1 14.4 13.4 10.0 - 8.8 7.7 -
RoE (%) 23.4 27.4 25.0 23.0 - 28.4 30.9 -
RoCE (%) 28.9 30.5 29.6 27.1 - 33.3 36.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Strong volume growth continues…

  • Asian Paints reported strong volume growth of 8% YoY in Q4FY22 even on a higher base of 48% growth last year. After a slow start in Q4 (due to pandemic led lockdowns), the company witnessed return of demand in February-March 2022 from tier III and IV cities. Further, industrial paints demand was led by strong growth in protective coatings segment
  • Consolidated revenue growth of ~19% YoY to Rs. 7893 crore, supported by paint and home segment revenue growth of 19% and 25% YoY to Rs. 7664 crore and Rs. 232 crore, respectively. The company has taken a price hike of ~22% in the paint segment in FY22 to offset higher raw material costs
  • Despite a sharp price hike, gross margin declined 448 bps YoY suggesting a delay in price hikes and adverse product mix (higher sales of low end of products). However, limited fall in EBITDA margin (by 153 bps YoY to 18.3%) is due to savings in other costs
  • The company incurred a one-time exceptional loss of Rs. 116 crore, which includes Rs. 54 crore of expected credit loss of state government subsidy and Rs. 62 crore on forex loss and good impairment provision of Sri Lankan unit
  • APL reported a flattish PAT of Rs. 874 crore tracking exceptional loss and lower EBITDA margin

Earnings Conference Call highlights

FY22 performance and Demand Outlook:

  • For FY22, consolidated revenue increased 34% YoY to Rs. 29101 crore led by paint revenues up 34% YoY to Rs. 28350 crore. The home improvement revenue increased 49% YoY to | 758 crore, supported by strong growth in both kitchen business (up 55% to | 410 crore) and bath business (up 46% to 360 crore)
  • Standalone paint revenue was up 36% YoY in FY22 (two year CAGR of 21%) led by 31% of volume growth (two year CAGR of 22%). Strong volume growth is attributable to market share gains, repainting demand and strong growth in waterproofing and wood finished segments. According to the management, Tier III and Tier IV cities (contributes ~55-60% of revenues) reported strong demand during the period. Sales of luxury and premium range of products was largely driven by Tier1 and Tier II cities
  • The management continued to see robust demand traction in decorative paints and expects double digit volume growth in FY23 as well despite a strong base of FY22. Shortening re-painting cycle, shift from low end to premium segment and continued demand of water proofing and wood finishes products will help drive volume growth for the company
  • The company has launched multiple new products in the home decor and water proofing segment in FY22 (such as fire retardant paint, anti-crack durable coatings, SmartCare HydroLOC), etc
  • APL has added 15,000+ new retail touch points taking total touch point count to 1,45,000
  • Home decor revenue contribution is expected to increase from current 4% of deco business to ~8-10% by FY26. The company has acquired two companies White Teak (in lightings) and Weatherseal (doors, windows) in April 2022 to expand its home décor business
  • Plans to increase its Beautiful Home stores (offering kitchen, bath & sanitaryware, lighting, tiles, flooring, furnishings, furniture, doors & windows) count from 29 in FY22 to 70 by the end of FY23

Margins:

  • The company plans to take a price hike of 5-7% in the first half of H1FY23 largely to offset higher raw material prices. The management sees sustainable gross margin of 41% in the medium to long term (vs. 37% in FY22 and 44% in FY21)
  • EBITDA margin guidance of 18-20% for FY23E (vs. 16.5% in FY22) supported by price hike and cost optimisation initiatives

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