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  • CMP : 2,801.9 Chg : 42.20 (1.53%)
  • Target : 3,685.0 (18.95%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

21 Oct 2022

Raw material costs weigh on margins…

About The Stock

Asian Paints (APL) is India’s largest decorative paint company. The company derives ~98% revenue from the paints business while 2% business comes from the home improvement business (kitchen and bathroom fittings).

  • Strong distribution network of 70,000 dealers, 2x more than the No. 2 player
  • Despite being in a capital intensive business, the company has maintained a strong balance sheet with RoCE, RoE of 30%, 25%, respectively
Q2FY23 Results

High raw material costs delay a margin recovery.

  • APL reported consolidated revenue growth of ~19% YoY to ~₹ 8457.6 led by 10% volume growth
  • Gross margin fell 197 bps QoQ (up 98 bps YoY) due to a delay in price hikes and change in product mix. This, along with higher advertisement expenses dragged overall EBITDA down 356 bps QoQ (+177 bps YoY) to 14.5%
  • PAT up ~33% YoY to ₹ 803.8 crore led by growth in topline
What should Investors do?

Strong brand, market leadership position and a robust balance sheet condition justify APL’s premium valuation. APL has been a consistent compounder with stock price appreciating at 22% CAGR over the last five years.

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We revise our target price to ₹ 3685/share and value APL at 68x P/E FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Repainting represents ~80% of total decorative paint demand. Gradual reduction in repainting cycle would drive future paint demand
  • Increased focus on the ‘water proofing & building chemical’ category will continue to drive revenue growth for Asian Paints. Water proofing & building chemical industry is pegged at ₹ 6000 crore vs. ₹ 1.5 lakh crore in China
  • Model revenue, earnings CAGR of ~18%, ~30%, respectively, in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Havells in our coverage.

  • Havells has a strong presence in the organised product category across its segments ranging from cables, switchgears, ECD, ACs and lighting. Havells’ market share ranges between 6% and 20% across these segments. It has a robust balance sheet with five-year average RoE & RoCE of 19% & 24%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1565

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Yr CAGR (17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 19,240.1 20,211.3 21,712.8 29,101.3 14.1 34,685.2 40,370.6 17.8
EBITDA 3,765.5 4,161.8 4,855.6 4,803.6 10.0 5,823.7 7,549.3 25.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.6 20.6 22.4 16.5 - 16.8 18.7 -
Net Profit 2,213.8 2,779.1 3,206.8 3,084.8 8.9 3,914.2 5,193.8 29.8
EPS (|) 23.1 29.0 33.4 32.2 - 40.8 54.2 -
P/E (x) 134.2 106.9 92.6 96.3 - 75.9 57.2 -
Price/Book (x) 31.4 29.3 23.2 21.5 - 20.7 18.4 -
Mcap/Sales (x) 15.4 14.7 13.7 10.2 - 8.6 7.4 -
RoE (%) 23.4 27.4 25.0 23.0 - 27.3 32.1 -
RoCE (%) 28.9 30.5 29.6 27.1 - 32.5 38.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q2FY23 Results: Strong volume growth continues…

  • Asian Paints continued its double digit volume growth trajectory with 10% increase in volumes. Tier 3 and 4 cities reported higher growth than T1 & T2 centres
  • Consolidated revenue growth of ~19% YoY to ~| 8457.6 crore was led by higher growth in both decorative paints and industrial business. The company has taken a price hike of ~1% in Q2FY23 (in addition to ~22% price hike in FY22 and 2% in Q1FY23) to offset higher raw material costs
  • Gross margin down 197 bps QoQ (up 98 bps YoY) in Q2FY23 due to a delay in price hike and adverse product mix. This, along with higher advertisement expenses dragged overall EBITDA down by 356 bps QoQ (up 177 bps YoY) to 14.5%
  • PAT grew ~33% YoY to | 803.8 crore on the back of topline growth

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Demand Outlook

  • The management reiterated strong demand outlook for H2FY23 for both decorative and industrial paint led by festive and wedding season and revival in automotive industry. Good monsoons will help in a recovery in rural demand of decorative paints, going forward
  • The company’s B2B project business is also likely to gain traction as a result of a pick-up in construction projects post monsoon
  • The management has maintained its double digit volume growth guidance for FY23-24E led by strong demand from tier III and IV cities and new product launches

Expansion of product portfolio:

  • Asian Paints launched four new products in Q2FY23 across product categories

Margins:

  • Asian Paints has taken a price hike of           1% against material inflation of ~2% in Q2FY23. As a result, gross margin came in at ~35% in Q2FY23, lower than the range of 36-38% in the past few quarters
  • The management expects inflation to ease down led by falling trends in raw material prices in recent times. However, uncertain geopolitical environment and strengthening US$ are key triggers that could offset the softening commodity prices

Network Expansion

  • The company added         ~8000 new retail points in H1FY23, out of which 5000 retail points were added in Q1FY23
  • Asian Paints has a presence in more than 628 towns for its painting services

Capex & Expansion Plans

  • The company has charted out a total investment of | 6,750 crore over the next three years. Out of this, | 3400 crore will be used for capacity enhancement, | 2,550 crore for backward integration and | 800 crore for the inorganic growth opportunities (includes recent acquisitions of White Teak, Weather seal)
  • Asian Paints will be increasing its in-house paint manufacturing capacity by more than 30% to 2.3 million tonnes per annum
  • The company will be undertaking backward integration to manufacture Vinyl Acetate Ethylene Emulsion (VAE) and Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) in India. VAE is the key emulsion used for manufacturing environment friendly paints and VAM is key raw material for the manufacturing VAE. Currently, India is fully dependent on imports for VAM & VAE. Manufacturing VAM & VAE in India will give the company a competitive edge
  • An investment of | 2100 crore will be made over the next three to four years for setting up an installed capacity of 1.5 lakh tonnes per annum for VAE and 1 lakh tonnes per annum for VAM
  • Asian Paints also announced a 60:40 joint venture with Riddhi Siddhi Group to set up a 2.65 lakh MT per annum white cement & white cement plant in Fujairah, UAE. The investment required for the same is ~| 550 crore
  • Riddhi Siddhi group provides access to quality limestones, which is a key input for white cement. White Cement is a key ingredient for putty, which is used as an undercoat for painting. Asian Paints is the No.2 player in the putty segment
  • APL also entered into an agreement with nanotechnology company, Harind Chemicals to acquire 51% stake in the company for ~| 12.75 crore. The additional 39% stake will be acquired over the next five years
  • Acquisition of Harind will aid APL in research and development for nano-coating

Disclaimer

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