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Ashoka Buildcon Ltd>
  • CMP : 171.8 Chg : -1.85 (-1.07%)
  • Target : 0.0 (100.0%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 Nov 2022

Dropping coverage...

About The Stock

Ashoka Buildcon Ltd (ABL) is primarily engaged in the construction of roads and bridges having an integrated portfolio of EPC, BOT and HAM projects. Besides roads construction, ABL also has established presence across varied infra verticals such as Power Transmission, Railways, City Gas Distribution

Q2FY23 Results

ABL reported a weak operational performance during Q2FY23

  • Standalone revenue improved 46.2% YoY to ₹ 1,479 crore aided by decent order book position, pick-up in execution and receipt of appointed date in most of its older projects.
  • EBITDA margin moderated to 9.8% (down 208 bps YoY) impacted by change in project mix and rise in commodity prices. Effectively, operating profit at ₹ 144.6 crore, was up 20.6% YoY.
  • PAT growth was modest at 3% YoY (to ₹ 104.3 crore) impacted by lower other income and higher finance cost.
What should Investors do?

ABL’s share price de-grew 48% over the past five years (from ~₹ 140 in November 2017 to ~₹ 73 in November 2022).

  • We believe that moderation in margins and bagging projects at lower margin at multiple geographies/sectors would remain key overhang going forward.
Target Price and Valuation
  • We drop our coverage on the stock and advise investor to switch to PSP Projects which has had relatively consistent track record in cash flows generation, margins and return ratio.
Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Stability and margins and execution consistency
  • Planned monetisation of HAM/Annuity assets
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides ABL, we like PSP Projects in the EPC space.

  • Strong execution and healthy balance sheet
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 720/share

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 3,820.6 3,937.4 3,817.5 4,591.5 17.9 5,409.4 6,053.2 14.8
EBITDA 515.2 585.6 519.5 502.5 15.7 486.9 573.2 6.8
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.5 14.9 13.6 10.9 - 9.0 9.5 -
PAT 286.2 387.1 408.1 -308.6
EPS (|) 10.2 13.8 14.5 -11.0 - 12.1 13.9 -
P/E (x) 7.1 5.3 5.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.4 3.7 4.5 4.9 - 5.8 4.9 -
RoNW (%) 12.9 14.9 13.6
RoCE (%) 18.8 20.8 18.4 19.7 - 13.9 14.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key business highlight and outlook

Order book healthy; margins to remain at lower levels

ABL’s order book (OB) at the end of Q2 FY23 stood at | 14,901 crore spread across roads - HAM (| 2,689.2 crore), roads - EPC (| 5,573.2 crore), buildings-EPC (| 2,866.7 crore), Power T&D and others (| 2,233.1 crore), railways (| 1,497.5 crore), and CGD (| 41.2 crore) segments. The current order book translates into 2.7x TTM revenues. Going forward, the management has guided for order inflows of ~| 5,000 crore during rest-FY23 with ~75-80% order inflows likely from roads segments. On the execution front, ABL has increased their revenue growth target (for FY23 standalone business) to 25-30% (from 15-20% earlier) on YoY basis. Furthermore, the company expects margins to remain at moderated level with some improvement in FY24 (to 9-10%; vs its normalized margin of 11-13%) mainly due to rise in input cost, change in project mix, execution of lower margin projects (bagged at lower margins to enter newer geographies/sectors).

 Equity infusion and asset monetisation update

Out of the total equity requirement of | 1,096 crore, ABL has infused | 848 crore (including Price Index Multiple) till Septmber 30, 2022 in the 11 HAM projects and expects balance amount to infuse over next 2-3 years. Asset sale of 5 SPVs (of Ashoka Concessions Ltd) for aggregate consideration of | 1,337 crore, and proceed of asset sale towards SBI Macquarie exit augurs well for the company. Monetization of pending assets will be the key for leverage ahead.

Key conference call takeaways

  • Revenue contribution: During Q2 FY23, revenue from Roads segment stood at | 820 crore, followed by Railways (| 184 crore), Power (| 140 crore), and others (~| 80 crore) verticals. For like-to-like comparison, revenue from Roads segment stood at | 665 crore during Q2 FY22, followed by Railways (| 142 crore), Power (| 52 crore) and others (~| 30 crore) verticals. Further, the company expects execution in the buildings sector to pick-up from Q4 FY23 onwards.
  • Margin: The volatility in commodity prices, change in project mix, execution of lower margin projects, and non-consideration of interest income from already sold SPVs (to Cube Highways) has impacted the overall margin performance during Q2 FY23. Currently, margins in the Roads, Power, Railways projects stands at 8-9% (considering prices at current level) whereas margin in international business is higher at 12-13% but is likely to come under execution in FY24. Also, the company has bagged some projects at lower margin to enter newer geographies/sectors. With these, the company expects moderation in operating margin to ~ 9%.
  • Order book position: Executable order book position currently stands at ~| 12,000-12,500 crore and expects balance ~| 2,000 crore worth of projects to come under execution by FY23-end.
  • Bidding pipeline: ABL has a targeted bid pipeline of ~| 55,000 crore. Additionally, the company has bided for ~| 10,000 crore of projects (wherein bids are yet to be opened). With these, the company is targeting inflows of ~| 5,000 crore during rest-FY23. The margin would be in the range of 9-11%.
  • Update on ACL Projects: ABL has completed an asset sale of Ashoka Concessions Ltd of 5 SPVs by entering into share purchase agreement (SPA) with Galaxy Investments II (KKR owned entity) for aggregate consideration of | 1,337 crore. Currently, the company has received approvals from few lenders and some-requisite permissions from NHAI, and is in the process of getting pending approvals. Further, the company has received extension of time period from investors for fulfilment of certain conditions. Sale of equity expected to be completed over next 1-2 months’ subject to receipt of necessary approvals from concerned lenders and NHAI. The proceeds of the sale of ACL assets is likely to facilitate the payment of | 1,200 crore to SBI Macquarie, in-turn, aid investors to exit the company fully. Further, the consolidated debt is likely to reduce by | 2,930.1 crore.
  • Monetization of Assets: ABL has executed SPA with National Investment and Infrastructure Fund Ltd (NIIF) for sale of 100% equity of Chennai ORR project for aggregate financial consideration of | 686 crore. Out of the total amount, the company is expected to receive | 450 crore (loan repayment: | 250 crore, equity stake-50%: | 200 crore). The transaction is likely to get concluded over next 2-3 months. Additionally, the company is in advanced stage of discussion for sale of equity (74% stake) for Jaora-Nayagaon and expects deal to conclude by FY23-end. For balance HAM projects, the company has initiated talks with potential investors and expects discussion to fructify going ahead. Overall, the proceed from sale of assets is likely to be used for working capital, debt reduction, and dividend distribution purpose.
  • Equity requirement: ABL has infused | 32 crore towards equity for under-construction HAM projects during Q2 FY23 whereas the company is likely to infuse | 156 crore, | 84 crore, | 30 crore during rest-FY23, FY24 and FY25 respectively.
  • Financial closure: ABL has achieved financial closure for a HAM project during October 2022 namely “6 lane Access Controlled Greenfield highway Baswantpur to Singnodi Section of NH 150 C (Package 4)”. The bid project cost of the project stands at | 1,079 crore. The company is expecting appointed date soon.
  • Debt: ABL’s consolidated debt has declined marginally from | 7,127.2 crore (as of Q1 FY23-end) to | 7,079.7 crore (as of Q2 FY23-end). Of this, | 869 crore is standalone debt (| 167.1 crore - equipment loan, | 701.9 crore - WC loan), | 250 crore is NCDs, and | 5,960.7 crore is project debt. Out of these, Project debt of 5 BOT assets amounting to | 2,930.1 crore likely to get reduced with sale of assets. Cash and Cash balance at the end of Q2 FY23 stood at | 734.9 crore. The management has indicated towards delays in collection mainly in roads projects which has resulted into increase in Standalone debt level. Going forward, the management expects standalone debt to stabilize at ~| 800 crore by FY23-end. Consolidated debt is likely to remain at an elevated level of | 7,000+ crore (without considering proceed from asset sale) mainly required to fund its HAM projects.
  • Impact of Solar module price rise: ABL was under discussions with its clients, NTPC and MNRE, w.r.t. the increase in module prices for solar projects. Currently, the company is going ahead with the project for EPC work and supply of modules are now stands at the client’s scope.
  • Capex: ABL has incurred capex of ~| 75 crore during H1 FY23 and expected to incur ~| 100 crore of overall capex during FY23.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Bhupendra Tiwary, CFA, MBA, Lokesh Kashikar, MMS, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                       

 

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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