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  • CMP : 173.6 Chg : 2.0 (1.17%)
  • Target : 185.0 (25.0%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

18 Nov 2022

Volume growth & margin expansion to boost earnings

About The Stock

Ashok Leyland (ALL) is a pure-play CV manufacturer domestically, with H1FY23 market share pegged at 17.5%. The company is present in M&HCV trucks and buses as well as LCV goods segments. It also has formidable presence in the e-mobility (Electric buses) domain though Switch Mobility

  • FY22 product mix – LCV goods 42%, trucks 52%, buses 6%
Q2FY23

ALL reported steady performance in Q2FY23

  • Standalone operating income for Q2FY23 was up 14.4% QoQ to ₹ 8,266 crore, amidst 14.2% sequential growth in volumes to 45,295 units.
  • EBITDA came in at ₹ 537 crore with margins at 6.5%, up 210 bps QoQ. Gross margin expanded by ~131 bps QoQ & was further supported by other expense which declined ~96 bps QoQ. 
  • Consequent PAT for the quarter came in at ₹ 199 crore.
What should Investors do?

ALL’s share price has grown at ~5.4% CAGR over the past five years (from ~₹ 112 levels in Nov 2017), outperforming the Nifty Auto index

  • We retain BUY rating driven by cyclical recovery underway in domestic CV space and gross margin expansion on anvil amidst decline in key RM prices
Target Price and Valuation

We value ALL at revised SOTP based target price of
₹ 185 (15x core FY24E EV/EBITDA, 2.0x P/BV for investments; earlier TP ₹ 180)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Healthy volume growth in the offering driven by governments thrust on infrastructure spending and pickup in core industrial activity with buses segment to benefit from reopening of workplaces, schools and colleges
  • Blended ASPs to rise amid exports push, improved product mix & intent to increase market share aided by new launches with superior tech offering
  • We build 25% volume & 33% net sales CAGR over FY22-24E; margins seen rising to 8.5% levels by FY24E on the back of operating leverage benefits and normalized input cost. Return ration are seen ~20% levels by FY24E
    • Focus on electrification & new mobility services with intent to launch E-LCV (i.e. Dost and Bada Dost) sometime in mid-2023 for B-to-B segment.
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides ALL, in our auto OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 29,055.0 17,467.5 15,301.5 21,688.3 1.6 31,644.3 38,274.1 32.8
EBITDA 3,135.7 1,173.6 535.1 994.5 -14.7 2,087.7 3,261.2 81.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 10.8 6.7 3.5 4.6 - 6.6 8.5 -
Net Profit 1,983.2 239.5 -313.7 541.9 -15.0 785.3 1,697.2 77.0
EPS (₹) 6.8 0.8 -1.1 1.8 - 2.7 5.8 -
P/E 21.9 181.4
RoNW (%) 24.3 4.7 -4.4 0.2 - 10.0 20.0 -
RoCE (%) 25.7 4.5 -1.9 2.1 - 11.5 20.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q2FY23 Results:

  • Standalone operating income came in | 8,266 crore up 14.4% QoQ. Total volumes for the quarter were at 45,295 units, up 14.2% sequentially.
  • ASPs for the quarter came in at | 18.2 lakh/unit, flat QoQ
  • M&HCV volumes in the total sales volume mix (~61.5% in Q2FY23 vs. ~63% in Q1FY23). The company gained market share in the truck segment.
  • EBITDA for the quarter came in at | 537 crore with corresponding margins at 6.5%, up 210 bps QoQ. Gross margin expanded by ~131 bps QoQ & was further supported by other expense which declined ~96 bps QoQ.
    • Consequent reported profit after tax stood at | 199 crore.

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Management informed about Q2FY23 remaining strong for company and second consecutive quarter with 30%+ market share in the truck segment with market share in this space increasing to 32.2% up ~10% YoY vs ~31.1% in Q1FY23. Company sustained market share amid new launches.
  • Company’s truck volumes rose much higher than industry truck volume growth, whereas LCV was slightly affected by semiconductor shortages.
  • During the quarter working capital increased by ₹650 crores due to increase in size of operations & net debt increased by ~₹400 crores to ₹2,677 crores vs ~₹2,281 in Q1FY23.
  • Management indicated, CRISIL expects M&HCV industry to grow by 22-23%, bus to grow by 103-105% & LCV to grow by 18-20% in FY23E. CRISIL expect bus portfolio to outperform over mid to long term amid low base.
  • Capex during Q2FY23 stood at ₹103 crores vs ~₹218 crore in H1FY23. For full year capex reduced from ₹750 crores to ₹600 crores. Above capex guidance does not include capex requirement of Switch Mobility. Switch capex requirement stands ~$200-250 mil for FY23-24E.
  • Company continues to provide support to switch mobility and is actively looking for right partner. However, company will not infuse further equity in Switch Mobility.
  • Management intends to target EV version of “Dost” & “Bada Dost” in CY23E amid demand from courier companies and need of last mile mobility. However, expects this to be largely driven by B2B demand.
  • Company has taken ~1.8-1.9% hike during Q1FY23 followed by ~1% price hike in Q2FY23. Further company has taken ~1.5% hike in November’22. Discounts were largely stable QoQ.
  • Steel price rose ~4-5/kg for Q1FY23 and were down by ~10/kg in Q2FY23. The company expects benefits of Rm price decline should start accruing from Q3FY23

  • Rise in employee expense was largely due to booking of bonus for employees, salary hikes as well as wage settlement arrears for workers

  • Company is actively engaging in defence sector tenders for trucks and expects healthy uptick in order from Q3FY23.

  • Company witnessed revival in demand from fleet aggregators & witnessed increase in fleet utilization levels & improvement of free cash flow in hands of fleet operators amidst reduced operating cost.

  • Spares revenue stood at ~7-8% of topline.

Disclaimer

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