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Amber Enterprises India Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,789.3 Chg : 130.85 (3.58%)
  • Target : 2,430.0 (13.29%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

18 May 2023

Profitability shows recovery…

About The Stock

Amber is a leading solution provider for air conditioner OEM/ODM industry in India.

  • The company has a product portfolio including RACs, RAC components and other non-AC components
  • Derives ~43% of its revenues from RACs and the rest from components and mobility applications
Q4FY23 Results

New customer additions across divisions drives topline.

  • Consolidated revenue increased 55% YoY ₹ 3002.6 crore led by uptick in demand for RAC & components coupled with new customer additions
  • Gross margin remained flat YoY (down 341 bps QoQ), mainly due to a change in product mix. However, better operating leverage resulted in an EBITDA margin improvement by 31 bps YoY (95 bps QoQ) to 6.8%
  • Despite higher interest outgo (up 2x YoY to ~₹ 38 crore) PAT grew ~1.8x YoY to ₹ 108.1 crore tracking strong topline growth in Q4
What should Investors do?

Amber’s share price has grown by ~1.9x over the past five years (from ~₹ 1150 in January 2018 to ~₹ 2145 levels in May 2023).

We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock  

Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at 28x FY25E EPS with a revised target price of ₹ 2430/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The AC industry is likely to grow ~16% YoY in FY24E supported by an upturn in the real estate industry and changing lifestyle. Amber, having the largest market share of ~29% (in terms of bills of materials), will be a key beneficiary of increased RAC demand
  • Increasing demand for wearables, telecom products & addition of new customers to drive revenue growth of non RAC divisions
  •  The company has added two new overseas customers. This will help drive export revenue from FY24E onwards
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Havells in our coverage.

  • Havells has a strong presence in the organised product category across its segments ranging from cables, switchgears, ACs, etc. Its market share ranges between 6% and 20% across these segments
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1425

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR (20-23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (23-25E)
Net sales 3,962.8 3,030.5 4,206.4 6,927.1 0.2 8,109.0 9,730.7 0.2
EBITDA 309.3 220.3 275.4 417.9 0.1 494.6 603.3 0.2
EBITDA Margin(%) 7.8 7.3 6.5 6.0 - 6.1 6.2 -
Net Profit 164.1 83.3 111.3 163.8 0.0 215.7 297.7 0.3
EPS (|) 52.2 24.7 33.0 48.6 - 64.0 88.4 -
P/E(x) 41.1 86.8 64.9 44.1 - 33.5 24.3 -
RoE (%) 14.5 5.2 6.4 8.6 - 10.7 12.9 -
RoCE (%) 14.3 7.7 6.8 9.3 - 12.1 14.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY23 Results: Sharp growth in revenue drives bottomline in Q4

  • Consolidated revenue up 55% YoY to | 3002.6 crore led by strong demand for RAC & components and new customer additions
  • Segment wise, RAC & components revenue grew sharply by 55% YoY to
    | 2371 crore supported by new customer additions and expansion of geographies. Mobility segment revenue increased ~46% YoY to ~ | 113 crore on the back of wallet share gains and               growth in railways/defence application business. Electronics segment revenue grew ~69% YoY to | 415 crore on a favourable base and robust demand for wearables. Motor segment revenue grew 31% YoY to | 105 crore led by expansion of BLDC motors in outdoor unit, window AC and commercial AC segment
  • Change in product mix led to flattish gross margin YoY (down 341 bps QoQ). The EBITDA margin witnessed a marginal improvement of 31 bps YoY (95 bps QoQ) to 6.8% led by better operating leverage
  • Despite a sharp rise in interest cost (up ~2x to ~| 38 crore), PAT grew ~1.8x YoY to | 108.1 crore tracking strong topline growth and recovery in EBITDA margin

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

Market Share:

  • Amber’s value market share in RAC & RAC components improved from 26.6% in FY22 to 29.4% in FY23
  • The company has ~27% market share in motors
  • Amber is the largest player in sheet metals with a market share in the range of 35-40%
  • Its market share in cross flow fans is ~25%

RAC & components division:

  • The management expects subdued demand in Q1FY24 due to unseasonal rains in some parts of the country
  • Channel inventory in the segment is elevated. The management expects it to get liquidated in June-July 2023
  • RAC market size in FY22 was at 8.4 million units. As per the management, the industry is likely to grow ~10-15% to    ~9.5 million units in FY24. Amber is likely to grow faster (300-400 bps YoY) than the industry growth
  • Th company added new customers in all its product categories during FY23. Currently, it has 26 customers in the segment
  • Amber achieved its threshold limits on both incremental sales and incremental capex required under the PLI scheme

Mobility division:

  • Amber has an order book of           ~| 700 crore in the segment
  • The company commenced production of pantry systems for Vande Bharat trains
  • According to the management, the defence application business is witnessing robust growth
  • Amber is focusing on expanding its wallet share in existing customers
  • As per the management, the offering in bills of materials for metro project is likely to double. As a result, the management expects revenue from metro to double in the next three to four years

Motors division:

  • The company is expanding BLDC motors in outdoor unit, window AC and commercial AC segment
    • According to the management, export of motors is growing steadily
    • The company expects to add two large customers in FY24 and expects 30-35% growth in the division

Margins:

  • The company has not taken any price hikes
  • The management expects increased capacity utilisation levels and stable raw material price to add to absolute EBITDA, going forward
  • The management expects EBITDA to grow 25-30% on an absolute basis
  • Its margins across product categories range between 4.5% and 23%

Capex & capacity utilisation:

  • Amber completed capex of | 698 crore in FY23
  • The company has envisaged capex of ~| 350-375 crore for FY24 for R&D and maintenance, expansion in subsidiary businesses and brownfield expansion in sub-assemblies & components
  • The company’s overall capacity utilisation is at 65-70%. Capacity utilisation at its new greenfield facility in Sri City is ~20% and is expected to go up to 35-40% in FY24
  • Plans to reduce net debt by | 200 crore in FY24E

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

 

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

 

 

 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

 

 

 

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