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  • CMP : 6,585.5 Chg : 5.0 (0.08%)
  • Target : 2,415.0 (10.53%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 Aug 2022

EBITDA margin pressure continues…

About The Stock

Amber is a leading solution provider for air conditioner OEM/ODM industry in India.

  • The company has a product portfolio including RACs, RAC components and other non AC components
  • Derives ~50% of its revenues from RACs and the rest from components and mobility applications
Q1FY23 Results

Strong topline growth; higher input cost drags margin.

  • Favourable base and strong demand for cooling products resulted in consolidated revenue growth of 2.6x YoY to ~₹ 1826 crore. This was led by ~3x growth in component & mobility business to ₹ 773 crore. RAC segment revenue also up 2.4x YoY to ₹ 1053 crore
  • EBITDA margin fell 52 bps YoY to 5.4% due to higher raw material costs
  • PAT up ~4x YoY to ~₹ 43 crore, tracking strong sales growth in Q1
What should Investors do?

Amber’s share price has grown by ~2.4x over the past four years (from ~₹ 918 in August 2018 to ~₹ 2185 levels in August 2022).

We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock 

Target Price and Valuation

We value Amber at ₹ 2415 i.e. 30x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The AC industry is likely to grow 30% YoY in FY23E supported by revival in real estate industry and changing lifestyle. Amber having the largest market share of ~26% (in terms of bills of materials), will be a major beneficiary of increased RAC demand
  • With the component business contributing ~50% to its topline, Amber is a major beneficiary of the PLI scheme provided by GoI
  • New export opportunities (of components) in US and Middle East
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Dixon in our coverage universe.

Dixon Technologies is India’s leading electronic manufacturing (EMS) provider and one of the largest beneficiaries of the government’s PLI scheme. It has a strong RoE, RoCE at ~20%, ~24%, respectively (three year’s average)

BUY with a target price of ₹ 4200

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net sales 2,752.0 3,962.8 3,030.5 4,206.4 0.2 6,125.5 7,687.2 0.4
EBITDA 212.9 309.3 220.3 275.4 0.1 392.0 530.4 0.4
EBITDA Margin(%) 7.7 7.8 7.3 6.5 - 6.4 6.9 -
Net Profit 94.8 164.1 83.3 111.3 0.1 169.1 269.4 0.6
EPS (|) 30.1 52.2 24.7 33.0 - 50.2 80.0 -
P/E(x) 72.5 41.9 88.4 66.1 - 43.5 27.3 -
RoE (%) 9.6 14.5 5.2 6.4 - 9.5 13.1 -
RoCE (%) 12.3 14.3 7.7 6.8 - 10.6 13.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Strong topline growth on favourable base

  • Consolidated revenue up 2.6x YoY to ~| 1826 crore, on a favourable base and strong demand for cooling products amid strong summers. RAC segment grew 2.4x YoY to | 1053 crore led by strong volume growth. Components & mobility segments revenue increased ~3x YoY to ~ | 773 crore. Strong growth in the component & mobility segment is attributable to client additions and consolidation of new businesses
  • On the component & mobility front, motors, electronics (PCBs), components revenues increased 130%, 252% and 219% YoY to | 83 crore, | 208 crore and | 387 crore, respectively. Mobility application business (i.e. Sidwal) reported muted revenue growth of 90% YoY to | 95 crore
  • Gross margin declined 241 bps YoY due to higher raw material costs. However, EBITDA margin fall was restricted at 52 bps YoY 5.4% through positive operating leverage
  • PAT up 4x YoY to | 43 crore mainly tracking higher sales growth in Q1

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

Demand Outlook: 

  • Amber’s topline growth has surpassed the pre-Covid level in Q1FY23. The company has a strong order book for FY23 and expects to reach the PLI threshold level and qualify for the PLI incentives for the first year
  • The company’s value market share in RAC and RAC components segment has grown from 21.2% in FY18 when it was listed to 26.6% in FY22
  • In Q1FY23, the RAC division grew 138% YoY led by strong demand of cooling products in first half of the calendar year. On the commercial AC front, the company has added new products to serve its customers
  • The management expects its RAC and components division to grow faster than the industry growth rate in FY23 
  • The motors segment grew 131% YoY in Q1FY23. The company has increased its product offerings on both domestic and international fronts. The brushless DC motor division is currently a small part of the company’s portfolio. However, the company is planning to start mass production on this front. Amber has a strong order book in the motors segment and has added new products, customers and geographies. The segment is expected to grow by ~30% in FY23 
  • The electronics segment grew 254% YoY. The company has added new customers through brownfield expansion in South India. Amber has added Boat as its customer and has started supplying smart wearables and hearables. The management expects the smart wearables and hearables market to grow at a rapid pace
  • The company’s subsidiaries, Amber PR and Pravartaka are witnessing increased traction and are expanding its manufacturing footprint in west and south India
  • The mobility application division grew 91% YoY. The company has on boarded new customers who are global leaders. It is developing new products for multiple business categories and has added products to cater to steel plants. It is also developing new products to increase its wallet share in railways and metro. The current order book for the same is at ~| 625 crore
  • The company’s Sri City facility will be operational in the second half of the calendar year and the commercial production is expected to start from mid-December 2022

 

 

Margins: 

  • Despite the strong revenue growth in Q1FY23, margins remain affected due to higher raw material prices, rising interest rates and foreign exchange fluctuations
  • With the recent revision in BEE ratings for the AC industry from July 1, 2022, there will be price increases in RACs. The price increase would be ~| 800 for 1-ton AC and | 1200 for a 1.5-ton AC 
  • The company was able to pass on price increases with a quarter’s lag

 

Capex:

  • The management maintained its capex guidance of | 400 crore in FY23, out of which some amount has already been used for greenfield expansion at Sri City plant
  • The company is in discussion for expansion with two customers and is planning to invest | 150 crore on the same
  • In FY24, the company plans to do a capex ~| 175 crore mainly for R&D and maintenance
Variance Analysis:
  Q1FY23 Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 1825.7 707.9 157.9 1936.7 -5.7   Favourable base and strong demand of cooling products helped drive revenue growth in Q1
Other Income 12.8 7.1 81.0 9.4 37    
               
Raw Material Exp 1563.5 589.2 165.4 1669.9 -6.4   Higher raw material cost dragged gross margin down by 241 bps YoY
Employee cost 45.9 32.3 42.2 42.7 7.4    
 Other Expenditure  117.1 44.3 164.5 98.8 18.5    
Total Expenditure 1726.5 665.8 159.3 1811.4 -4.7    
EBITDA 99.2 42.2 135.3 125.3 -20.8    
EBITDA Margin (%) 5.4 6.0 -52 bps 6.5 -103 bps   Higher raw material cost was partially offset by savings in employee cost and other expenses due to positive operating leverage
Depreciation 32.2 24.4 32.0 30.2 6.3    
Interest 21.1 9.1 130.4 18.6 13.5    
Exceptional items              
PBT 58.9 15.8 273.5 85.9 -31.4    
Total Tax 16.0 4.6 249.6 26.6 -39.9    
PAT 42.9 11.2 283.2 59.3 -27.7   PAT growth is attributable to strong topline growth in Q1
               
Key Metrics              
RAC 1,053.0 442.0 138.2 1,002.0 5.1   Favourable base and strong demand of cooling product drove segment revenue up in Q1. Volumes were up by 168% YoY
Component & Mobile Applications 772.7 265.9 190.6 934.7 -17.3   Favourable base, consolidation of new business (AmberPR & Pravartaka) and improved demand for both (AC, Non-AC components) drove segment revenue growth 

Disclaimer

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