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  • CMP : 6,580.5 Chg : -199.0 (-2.94%)
  • Target : 2,395.0 (11.40%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 Oct 2022

Higher operating cost drags EBITDA margin…

About The Stock

Amber is a leading solution provider for air conditioner OEM/ODM industry in India.

  • The company has a product portfolio including RACs, RAC components and other non AC components
  • Derives ~50% of its revenues from RACs and the rest from components and mobility applications
Q2FY23 Results

Higher operating cost in Q2 delays margin recovery; Strong demand of component drives topline

  • Favourable base and strong demand for components (aided by new customer additions) resulted in consolidated revenue growth of ~28% YoY to ~₹ 750 crore.
  • EBITDA margin fell 95 bps YoY to 4.9% dragged by one time forex losses (of ₹ 7.5 crore) and other operating costs associated with new plant
  • Amber reported loss of ₹ 2.3 crore as against profit of ~₹ 8 crore dragged by sharp fall in EBITDA margin and higher interest costs
What should Investors do?

Amber’s share price has grown by ~2.6x over the past four years (from ~₹ 837 in October 2018 to ~₹ 2150 levels in October 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Amber at ₹ 2395 i.e. 32x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The AC industry is likely to grow 30% YoY in FY23E supported by revival in real estate industry and changing lifestyle. Amber having the largest market share of ~26% (in terms of bills of materials), will be a major beneficiary of increased RAC demand
  • With the component business contributing ~50% to its topline, Amber is a major beneficiary of the PLI scheme provided by GoI
  • New export opportunities (of components) in US and Middle East      
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Polycab India in our coverage.

Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22%-24%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. Robust b/s with a 3-year average RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3300

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (FY19-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net sales 2,752.0 3,962.8 3,030.5 4,206.4 0.2 6,066.9 7,616.9 0.3
EBITDA 212.9 309.3 220.3 275.4 0.1 376.1 510.3 0.4
EBITDA Margin(%) 7.7 7.8 7.3 6.5 - 6.2 6.7 -
Net Profit 94.8 164.1 83.3 111.3 0.1 154.0 248.4 0.5
EPS (|) 30.1 52.2 24.7 33.0 - 45.7 73.7 -
P/E(x) 71.3 41.2 87.0 65.1 - 47.0 29.2 -
RoE (%) 9.6 14.5 5.2 6.4 - 8.7 12.3 -
RoCE (%) 12.3 14.3 7.7 6.8 - 10.2 13.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q2FY23 Results: Strong topline growth on favourable base

  • Consolidated revenue up ~28% YoY to ~| 750.4 crore, on a favourable base and strong demand for components. RAC & Components segment grew marginally by 5.3% YoY to | 357 crore supported by strong growth in components. However, RAC sales declined by 25% due to lower demand amid extended monsoon and destocking of old inventories before the implementation of new energy norms.
  • Mobility segment revenue increased ~48% YoY to ~ | 105 crore. Electronics segment revenue grew by ~76% YoY to | 241 crore as a result of addition of wearables and hearables segment
  • Gross margin up by 180 bps YoY due to lower raw material costs and change in product mix. However, EBITDA margin declined by 95 bps YoY to 4.9% due to higher other operating expenses including forex loss of | 7.5 crore
  • Net loss of | 2.3 crore tracking lower EBITDA as well as higher interest outgo (up ~281% YoY mainly due to higher debt)

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

Demand Outlook: 

  • Amber saw a slowdown in demand for RACs from July to mid-September’22 as there was destocking due to revised BEE norms. With inventory at normal level, the company expects demand to rise in Q3 and Q4FY23. However, a slight negative impact of BEE norms would also continue in Q3FY23
  • Management reiterated RAC industry volume growth guidance of ~33% YoY to 8.5mn units in FY23
  • The components division is growing at a faster pace led by strong order book, new customer addition and expansion in newer geographies like Chennai and Pantnagar
  • For the motors segment, the company has shifted to a bigger facility in Faridabad to cater to the growing demand
  • Amber is in the process of receiving approvals for export of motors and expects to receive large orders in FY24
  • The management expects the Motor division to grow by more than 30% in FY23 on the back of a strong order book with new product additions and geographical expansion
  • On the Electronics front, the company has added Boat as its customer and has started a vertical for wearables and hearables. Amber has received healthy orders for the same
  • The company is expanding the manufacturing footprint of its electronic division with new facility in South India to cater to a large MNC customer
  • In the mobility division, Amber has increased its impetus on Infrastructure development and has an order book of more than | 650 crore
  • Amber’s PLI threshold investments are on track and the company is likely to receive PLI benefit from FY24. The PLI benefit for FY23 is expected to be | 15 crore and | 30 crore in FY24

Margins & Profitability:

  • EBITDA margin was affected in Q2FY23 mainly due to Forex loss amounting to ~| 7.5 crore
  • The interest cost went up by ~281% YoY to | 24 crore mainly for Capex incurred and higher interest rates
  • The management has given guidance of 25-20% increase in EBITDA on an absolute basis
  • With the recent revision in BEE ratings for the AC industry from July 1, 2022, there will be price increases in RACs. The price increase would be ~| 800 for 1-ton AC and | 1200 for a 1.5-ton AC
  • The company passes on price revisions with a quarter’s lag

Capex:

  • The management has revised its Capex allocation from | 400 crore to | 600 crore in FY23.
  • The company’s Sri City plant is expected to be operational by Q3FY23

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal, MBA (Finance), Hitesh Taunk, MBA (Finance) and Ashwi Bhansali, MBA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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