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  • CMP : 2,640.9 Chg : 40.60 (1.56%)
  • Target : 1,495.0 (17.25%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

29 Jul 2022

Margins weak but branded generics outlook strong…

About The Stock

Ajanta Pharma is a focused player in branded, which constitutes ~72% of overall sales, spread across geographies including India.

  • As of FY22, overall exports: domestic formulations ratio was at 70:30
  • Among exports, Asia accounts for ~35% of export formulations, Africa 34% & US 30%. The company also participates in anti-malarial tenders in Africa (included in Africa)
Q1FY23

Revenues were above estimates amid strong traction in India and export branded business while margins were sub-par amid 654 bps YoY decline in gross margins to 70.5%.

  • Sales were up 27% YoY to ₹ 951 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 222 crore while margins contracted 612 bps YoY to 23.3%
  • Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 175 crore versus ₹ 174 crore in Q1FY22
What should Investors do?

Ajanta’s share price has grown by ~2.14x over the past three years (from ~₹ 595 in July 2019 to ~₹ 1275 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain BUY as it remains a compelling play on branded generics (~72% exposure) with strong execution track record and financials
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 1495 i.e. 21x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 71.1

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Focus on maximum number of first time launches (Q1FY23 launches:7, first to market:2 in India) with focus on new drug delivery system (NDDS)
  • In emerging markets, front-end marketing for direct interaction with doctors
  • Calculated focus, healthy margins, return profile and lighter balance sheet are some key differentiators for Ajanta
  • Margins are likely to improve amid operational leverage, expected softening of raw material cost and incremental focus on branded business
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Ajanta, we like Indoco Remedies.

  • Indoco manufactures and markets branded formulations and APIs for the domestic and export markets.
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 510

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 2,053.0 2,587.9 2,889.7 3,341.0 10.8 3,777.8 4,178.5 11.8
EBITDA 555.8 683.3 998.6 929.3 6.2 985.0 1,164.8 12.0
EBITDA margins (%) 27.1 26.4 34.6 27.8 - 26.1 27.9 -
Net Profit 384.6 467.7 653.9 712.7 7.1 769.9 911.4 13.1
EPS (|) 43.5 53.4 74.0 55.6 - 60.1 71.1 -
PE (x) 50.1 41.2 29.5 22.9 - 21.2 17.9 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 34.4 27.9 18.9 17.2 - 15.9 13.0 -
RoCE (%) 21.8 24.7 29.0 27.0 - 24.4 24.5 -
ROE (%) 17.1 18.1 21.8 21.8 - 19.9 19.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Robust branded performance while margins dive

  • Ajantas revenues grew 27% YoY to | 951 crore driven by domestic business growth of 22% YoY to | 279 crore and Emerging markets (branded), which grew 40% YoY to | 409 crore. US sales grew 6.5% YoY to | 179 crore while Africa tender business sales also increased by 43% YoY to | 77 crore. EBITDA margins declined 612 bps YoY to 23.3% due to lower gross margins (down 654 bps YoY to 70.5%) and higher other expenses. EBITDA largely flat YoY at | 222 crores while PAT was flat YoY at | 175 crores.
  • Ajanta’s domestic business was driven by growth of 10% in Cardiology, 21% in Ophthalmology, 20% in Dermatology and 23% in Pain Management. Traction in Africa branded business and Asia markets was on back of low base last year. US business witnessed slower price erosion this quarter and management expects muted growth of 5% in FY23. Margins declined due to, 1) write-off of inventory (contributing ~2% decline), 2) US price erosion (contributing ~1% decline) and raw material price inflation (contributing ~1% decline). However, margins are likely to recover by ~300 bps sequentially, with guidance to end FY23 with 26-27% EBITDA margins. Ajanta is likely to maintain mid-teen domestic growth momentum leveraging on the new launches and price hike. Company is well placed to leverage its branded position in emerging markets as well through market share gain and new launches. Overall, calculated focus, steady gross margins and lighter balance sheet are some key differentiators for Ajanta.

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • India: Growth break-up: Volume- 6%, Price- 7% and rest coming from new launches. Q1FY23 Therapy break-up – cardio:41%, opthal:31%, derma:20%, pain:8%. Trade generics contributed | 33 crore in Q1FY23. Total 7 new products launched in Q1FY23 and 2 were first-to-market. Management is guiding for mid-teen growth.
  • Exports: Q1FY23 Sales break-up – Asia branded:36%, US:27%, Africa branded:25%, Africa institutional:12%. Ajanta’s branded presence has strengthened as management is guiding for mid-teen growth, while Africa tender business remains unpredictable.
  • US: Company has not witnessed any sequential increase in price erosion this quarter. Ajanta filed 1 product in Q1FY23 while another 10-12 ANDAs scheduled in FY23. US is likely to grow by ~4-5% in FY23 before new launches expected to kick in from FY24.
  • Gross margins decline was also due to, 1) write-off of inventory (contributing ~2% decline), 2) US price erosion (contributing ~1% decline), raw material price inflation (contributing ~1% decline). Management expects about 300 bps improvement from next quarter on back of 100 bps due to price increase and 200 bps impact was one-off. Consequently, EBITDA margins guidance at 26-27% for FY23.
  • R&D expense | 54 crore (6% of sales) in Q1FY23

 

  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 Q4FY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 950.9 852.3 748.0 870.3 27.1 9.3   YoY growth driven by all business verticals
Raw Material Expenses 280.4 221.6 171.7 239.3 63.4 17.2    
gross margins (%) 70.5 74.0 77.1 72.5 -654 bps -199 bps   Material cost was higher due to elevated API prices and price erosion in US 
Employee Expenses 182.9 166.2 158.0 165.5 15.8 10.5    
Other Expenditure 265.8 242.9 198.1 258.8 34.2 2.7    
Total Operating Expenditure 729.2 630.7 527.8 663.6 38.2 9.9    
EBITDA 221.8 221.6 220.2 206.7 0.7 7.3    
EBITDA (%) 23.3 26.0 29.4 23.7 -612 bps -43 bps   YoY sharp margins decline was also due to, 1) write-off of inventory (contributing ~2% decline), 2) US price erosion (contributing ~1% decline), raw material price inflation ( contributing ~1% decline)
Interest  0.9 0.0 1.5 7.3 -41.7 -88.0    
Depreciation 31.8 36.3 30.9 31.2 2.9 2.0    
Other income 32.8 10.7 32.6 29.5 0.4 11.1   Forex gain of | 28 crore in Q1FY23
PBT before EO 221.9 196.0 220.5 197.7 0.6 12.2    
Less: Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
PBT 221.9 196.0 220.5 197.7 0.6 12.2    
Tax 47.2 44.1 46.7 46.5 1.2 1.7    
MI & Share of loss/ (gain) asso. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
Adj. Net Profit 174.6 151.9 173.8 151.2 0.5 15.5    
Key Metrics                
India 279.0 271.3 229.0 245.0 21.8 13.9   YoY growth of 10% in Cardiology, 21% in Ophthalmology, 20% in Dermatology and 23% in Pain Management
Total Export 665.0 568.4 513.0 616.0 29.6 8.0    
Emerging Branded Markets  409.0 347.7 291.0 399.0 40.5 2.5    
Africa - Branded 168.0 141.5 125.0 136.0 34.4 23.5   YoY growth backed by new launches and higher field force
Africa - Tender 77.0 50.2 54.0 50.0 42.6 54.0    
Asia 240.0 206.3 165.0 263.0 45.5 -8.7   YoY growth on low base of Q1FY22
US 179.0 170.5 168.0 168.0 6.5 6.5   Ajanta’s US price erosion increase has stopped QoQ in Q1FY23

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