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Ajanta Pharma Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,085.4 Chg : 6.55 (0.32%)
  • Target : 1,955.0 (20.68%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 May 2022

Margins weak but branded generics outlook strong…

About The Stock

Ajanta Pharma is a focused player in branded, which constitutes ~72% of overall sales, spread across geographies including India.

  • As of FY22, overall exports: domestic formulations ratio was at 70:30
  • Among exports, Asia accounts for ~35% of export formulations, Africa 34% & US 30%. The company also participates in anti-malarial tenders in Africa (included in Africa)
Q4FY22

Revenues were above estimates amid strong traction in India and export branded business while margins were sub-par amid 531 bps YoY decline in gross margins to 72.5%.

  • Sales were up 15% YoY to ₹ 870 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 207 crore while margins contracted 1053 bps YoY to 24%
  • Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 151 crore (down 5% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Ajanta’s share price has grown by ~1.5x over the past three years (from ~₹ 1068 in May 2019 to ~₹ 1620 levels in May 2022).

  • We maintain BUY as it remains a compelling play on branded generics (~72% exposure) with strong execution track record and financials
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 1955 i.e. 20x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 97.8

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Focus on maximum number of first time launches with focus on new drug delivery system (NDDS)
  • In emerging markets, front-end marketing for direct interaction with doctors
  • Calculated focus, healthy margins, return profile and lighter balance sheet are some key differentiators for Ajanta
  • Margins are likely to improve amid operational leverage and incremental focus on branded business
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Ajanta, in healthcare coverage we like Ipca.

  • Ipca is a fully integrated pharma company with a judicious mix of strong domestic franchise and a spread out exports model
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1175

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 2,053.0 2,587.9 2,889.7 3,341.0 10.8 3,669.4 4,076.9 10.5
EBITDA 555.8 683.3 998.6 929.3 6.2 1,018.9 1,182.3 12.8
EBITDA margins (%) 27.1 26.4 34.6 27.8 - 27.8 29.0 -
Net Profit 384.6 467.7 653.9 712.7 7.1 711.8 835.4 8.3
EPS (|) 43.5 53.4 74.0 83.4 - 83.3 97.8 -
PE (x) 37.2 30.6 21.9 19.4 - 19.4 16.6 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 25.5 20.6 13.9 15.0 - 13.3 11.0 -
RoCE (%) 21.8 24.7 29.0 27.0 - 22.9 22.9 -
ROE (%) 17.1 18.1 21.8 21.8 - 18.4 18.3 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Robust branded performance while margins dive

  • Ajanta's revenues grew 15% YoY to | 870 crore driven by domestic business growth of 12% YoY to | 245 crore and Emerging markets (branded), which grew 46% YoY to | 399 crore. US sales de-grew 3% YoY to | 168 crore while Africa tender business was down 37% YoY to | 50 crore. EBITDA margins declined 1053 bps YoY to 23.7% due to lower gross margins (down 531 bps) and higher other expenses. Sharp margins decline was also due to, 1) write-off one product sent to US nearing expiry (contributing ~1.5% decline) and 2) US price erosion (contributing ~1.5% decline). EBITDA contracted 20% YoY to | 207 crores while PAT de-grew 5% YoY to | 151 crores. Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA was mainly due to increase in other income and lower tax expense. Board of directors has approved the bonus issue of equity shares in the proportion of 1:2 equity share of | 2/- each
  • Ajanta’s domestic business was driven by growth of 11% in cardiology, 25% in ophthalmology, 17% in dermatology and 28% in pain management while traction in Africa branded business was supplemented by growth in Asia markets on back of strengthening of brands. US business witnessed continued pricing erosion (~18%) amid increase in competition. Ajanta is likely to maintain domestic growth momentum leveraging on the already launched products (16 new launches in FY22, four being FTF) and leverage its branded position in emerging markets through market share gain and new launches. On margins front, material cost was higher due to inflationary API prices and US price erosion. The management expects to maintain ~28% EBITDA margins FY23. Overall, calculated focus, steady gross margins and lighter balance sheet are some key differentiators for Ajanta.

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • India: Grew 21% from | 813 crore in FY21 to | 982 crore in FY22. Therapy break-up – cardio:41%, opthal:31%, derma:20%, pain:8%. Trade generics contributed | 30 crore in Q4FY22 and | 117 crore in FY22. Total 16 new products launched in FY22 and four were FTF. NLEM basket constitutes ~ 20% of domestic portfolio. Non-NLEM price hike is an annual activity and maximum hike is capped at 10%. Management is guiding for mid-teen growth. The company is also looking at acquisitions in India branded space
  • Exports: Grew 13% from | 2032 crore to | 2302 crore. Sales break-up – Asia branded:36%, US:30%, Africa branded:25%, Africa institutional:9%. Ajanta’s branded presence has strengthened while Africa tender business remains unpredictable. New launches, market share gain and price hike are expected to drive growth to mid-teens in emerging markets. The management is also looking to increase MRs in these markets
  • US: Grew 9% from | 637 crore to | 696 crore. Ajanta launched three products in FY22. Total 20 ANDAs pending for approval while it expects to file another 10-12 ANDAs in FY23. Traditionally, US experiences ~10% price erosion but Ajanta’s base business is seeing 18% price erosion currently. US requires higher inventory, receivables days and will continue to be so
  • Material cost was higher due to elevated API prices and price erosion in US. This is likely to continue, going forward. Out of | 832 crore of material cost in FY22, ~ | 700 crore is sourced from third party. There was a one-time impact of ~1.5% due to write-off of one product nearing expiry, which was sent to US while another ~ 1.5% impact is due to US price erosion, which is likely to continue. Management has guided for ~ 28% EBITDA margins
  • R&D expense | 59 crore (7% of sales) in Q4FY22 while | 204 crore (6% of sales) in FY22. About ~ 55% of R&D is earmarked for US
  • Other Income includes forex gain of | 73 crore in FY22
  • Capex | 154 crore in FY22 and management guided for | 200 crore in FY23
 
Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 Q3FY22 YoY (%) QoQ(%)   Comments
Revenue 870.3 817.0 756.8 837.9 15.0 3.9   YoY growth mainly driven by strong growth in branded portfolio
Raw Material Expenses 239.3 187.9 167.9 189.1 42.5 26.6    
gross margins (%) 72.5 77.0 77.8 77.4 -531 bps -494 bps   Material cost was higher due to elevated API prices and price erosion in US 
Employee Expenses 165.5 158.1 145.8 162.2 13.5 2.1    
Other Expenditure 258.8 245.9 183.8 247.1 40.8 4.7    
Total Operating Expenditure 663.6 592.0 497.4 598.3 33.4 10.9    
EBITDA 206.7 225.0 259.4 239.6 -20.3 -13.7    
EBITDA (%) 23.7 27.5 34.3 28.6 -1053 bps -484 bps   YoY sharp margins decline was also due to, 1) write-off one product sent to US nearing expiry (contributing ~1.5% decline) and 2) US price erosion (contributing ~1.5% decline)
Interest  7.3 1.0 2.6 1.0 186.7 672.6    
Depreciation 31.2 31.7 30.6 31.7 1.8 -1.8    
Other income 29.5 10.2 2.5 24.0 1,065.2 22.7    
PBT before EO 197.7 202.6 228.8 230.9 -13.6 -14.4    
Less: Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
PBT 197.7 202.6 228.8 230.9 -13.6 -14.4    
Tax 46.5 34.4 69.5 39.2 -33.2 18.6    
MI & Share of loss/ (gain) asso. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
Adj. Net Profit 151.2 168.2 159.3 191.8 -5.1 -21.2   Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA mainly due to increase in other income and lower tax expense
Key Metrics                
India 245.0 245.3 218.0 260.0 12.4 -5.8   Ajanta’s domestic business driven by new launches, market share gain and price increase
Total Export 616.0 559.7 526.0 563.0 17.1 9.4    
Emerging Branded Markets  399.0 349.9 273.0 361.0 46.2 10.5   YoY growth amid traction in branded business and improvement in brands market share
Africa - Branded 136.0 145.5 97.0 167.0 40.2 -18.6    
Africa - Tender 50.0 40.0 80.0 36.0 -37.5 38.9    
Asia 263.0 202.4 176.0 194.0 49.4 35.6    
US 168.0 169.8 173.0 166.0 -2.9 1.2   Ajanta’s base business is witnessing 18% price erosion currently

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