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Affle India Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,067.2 Chg : -15.10 (-1.40%)
  • Target : 1,140.0 (17.53%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 May 2022

Seasonally weak quarter; outlook remains strong

About The Stock

Affle India (Affle) is a technology platform that enables advertisers to do targeted advertising.

  • It helps advertisers to measure the effectiveness of advertisement as it charges only when a user downloads an app or completes a transaction
  • As on FY22, 99.1% business comes from consumer platforms while the rest comes from enterprise platforms
Q4FY22

Affle reported Q4FY22 results that were seasonally weak.

  • Revenues declined 7.2% QoQ; converted users declined 3.2% QoQ
  • EBITDA margin dropped 142 bps QoQ to 18.5%
  • Converted users grew 85% YoY to reach 195.3 mn in FY22
What should Investors do?

Affle’s share price has grown by ~5.5x since listing (from ~₹ 174 [adjusted for split] in August 2019 to ~₹ 970 levels in May 2022).

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value Affle at ₹ 1,140 i.e. 43x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Key beneficiary of a shift of advertising budget to digital medium
  • Six billion connected consumer devices to be added globally by 2025
  • Significant increase in India’s digital user base from 525 mn in FY20 to 902 mn by FY25E at 11.4% CAGR while mobile ad spend is expected to rise at 32.4% CAGR in the same period
  • We expect 32% revenue growth in FY22-24E (organic & inorganic combined)
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Affle, in our IT coverage we also like Just Dial.

  • Change in promoters and shift of advertising to digital medium key positives
  • HOLD with a target price of ₹ 900

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 4 Year CAGR(FY18-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 249.4 333.8 516.8 1,081.7 59.5 1,460.2 1,883.7 32.0
EBITDA 70.3 87.9 130.3 213.1 47.1 314.0 423.8 41.0
EBITDA Margins (%) 28.2 26.3 25.2 19.7 - 21.5 22.5 -
Adjusted Net Profit 48.8 64.6 103.1 213.9 66.5 270.3 351.9 28.3
Adjusted EPS (|) 4.0 5.1 8.1 16.1 - 20.3 26.4 -
P/E 241.3 188.7 91.5 60.2 - 47.7 36.7 -
RoNW (%) 67.4 28.2 28.7 18.1 - 18.6 19.5 -
RoCE (%) 72.8 26.2 25.8 17.3 - 18.4 19.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Q4 is seasonally a weak quarter for the company as advertisers spend heavily in Q3 due to the festive season and there is moderation in Q4 vs. Q3 as per historical trends
  • Converted users declined 3.2% QoQ to 56.6 million (mn) (up 91.2% YoY) while average cost per converted user (CPCU) declined 1.4% QoQ (up 24.9% YoY) resulting in 4.5% QoQ decline in consumer CPCU business revenue at | 289 crore (it was up 139% YoY)
  • At the company level (Consumer+ Enterprise), it reported revenues of | 315 crore for the quarter, which was down 7.2% QoQ (up 122.5% YoY). For FY22, it reported 85% growth in converted users to 195.3 mn while average CPCU was up 22% to | 49.9, resulting in consumer business revenue growth of 127%. Overall revenues were up 109% in FY22. Our back of the envelope calculation suggests organic revenues grew 47% in FY22 while the rest has been contributed by Jampp
  • EBITDA margins for Q4FY22 were down 140 bps QoQ, 580 bps YoY to 18.5% while for FY22, it was down 550 bps to 19.7% due to increase in employee as well inventory data costs. The company indicated that adjusted EBITDA for Q4 (adjusted for ESOPs and hyper inflationary costs in one of the subsidiaries in Argentina) was | 60.7 crore while margins were at 19.3%
  • Affle sees minimal impact of Google’s privacy policy due to i) as per the company, Google’s privacy policy is a diluted version of Apple’s iOS policy which came in 2019, ii) the privacy policy is expected to be in a testing phase at least for the next two years before becoming commercial, only in year three, iii) the company had seen much stringent iOS policy earlier. They are well placed/prepared to tackle the issue. The company also indicated that, compared to other global advertisement companies i.e. Facebook, they have minimal exposure to iOS
  • The company’s consumer platform business contributed 99.1% of FY22 revenue while the enterprise platform business contributed 0.9% of revenue
  • Affle’s international revenue share increased to 65.3% in FY22 compared to 50.3% in FY21. The company’s India’s revenue share dropped to 34.7% in FY22 from 49.7% share in FY21
  • The company indicated that EBITDA margins for FY22 also include contribution from Jampp (Jampp being at breakeven in FY21 moved to 6-7% EBITDA margin in FY22). Affle indicated that Jampp is expected to move to mid teen EBITDA margins in FY23 and further high teen in FY24, on account of which overall margins at the company level are expected to improve, going forward
  • The company does not see any disruption in the near term on privacy policy changes globally due to i) consumer continue to spend ample time on smartphones, ii) digital advertisers continue to allocate large pie of their advertisement spend on digital advertising. Affle indicated that digital advertising growth rate in India as well as few emerging economies is expected to around 35% for the foreseeable future while growth rates in the mature markets are expected to be in the range of 30-35%
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q4FY22   Q4FY21   YoY (%)   Q3FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 315.1 141.6 122.5 339.4 -7.2 Revenue declined QoQ due to seasonality
Employee expenses 42.4 16.4 174.6 37.1 16.0  
             
Gross Margin 272.7 125.2 117.8 302.3 -9.8  
Gross margin (%) 86.5 88.4 -188 bps 89.1 -255 bps  
SG&A expenses 214.3 90.7 136.3 234.7 -8.7  
             
EBITDA 58.4 34.5 69.2 67.7 -13.8  
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.5 24.4 -584 bps 19.9 -142 bps Adjusted EBITDA margins ( ESOP and inflationary costs in argentina) were at 19.3%
Depreciation & amortisation 9.3 5.2 79.3 9.9 -5.5  
EBIT 49.0 29.3 67.4 57.8 -15.2  
Finance cost 1.6 1.3   1.9    
EBIT Margin (%) 15.6 20.7 -513 bps 17.0 -147 bps  
Other income (less interest) 28.8 36.0 -19.9 14.4 99.7  
PBT 76.3 64.0 19.1 70.4 8.4  
Tax paid 7.6 5.4 40.0 8.1 -6.3  
PAT 68.7 58.6 17.2 62.3 10.3  

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