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Affle India Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,080.7 Chg : -7.90 (-0.73%)
  • Target : 1,255.0 (16.20%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

07 Feb 2023

Emerging markets stable; some pain in developed markets…

About The Stock

Affle India (Affle) is a technology platform that enables advertisers to do targeted advertising.

  • It helps advertisers to measure the effectiveness of advertisement as it charges only when a user downloads an app or completes a transaction
  • As on FY22, 99.1% business comes from consumer platforms while the rest comes from enterprise platforms
Q3FY23 Results

Affle reported steady Q3FY23 revenue numbers.

  • Revenue grew 6.1% QoQ; converted users grew 4.8% QoQ
  • EBITDA margin improved ~140 bps QoQ to 21.4%
  • Average CPCU flat sequentially at ₹ 51
What should Investors do?

Affle’s share price has grown by ~6.2x since listing [from ~₹ 174 (adjusted for split) in August 2019 to ~₹ 1080 levels in February 2023.

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Affle at ₹ 1,255 i.e. 47x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Key beneficiary of a shift of advertising budget to digital medium
  • Six billion connected consumer devices to be added globally by 2025
  • Significant increase in India’s digital user base from 525 million (mn) in FY20 to 902 mn by FY25E at 11.4% CAGR while mobile ad spend is expected to rise at 32.4% CAGR in the same period
  • We expect 25.9% revenue growth in FY22-25E (organic & inorganic combined)
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Affle, in our IT coverage we also like Persistent.

  • Consistent growth aided by continued strong TCV and inorganic opportunities

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 4920

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 4 Year CAGR(FY18-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net Sales 333.8 516.8 1,081.7 59.5 1,438.6 1,798.3 2,157.9 25.9
EBITDA 87.9 130.3 213.1 47.1 294.9 377.6 463.9 29.6
EBITDA Margins (%) 26.3 25.2 19.7 - 20.5 21.0 21.5 -
Adjusted Net Profit 64.6 103.1 213.9 66.5 232.7 292.8 356.0 18.5
Adjusted EPS (|) 5.1 8.1 16.1 - 17.5 22.0 26.7 -
P/E 210.1 101.9 67.0 - 61.7 49.1 40.4 -
RoNW (%) 28.2 28.7 18.1 - 16.5 17.2 17.3 -
RoCE (%) 26.2 25.8 17.3 - 16.3 16.8 16.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported steady revenue growth of 6.1% QoQ and 10.8% YoY with revenue of | 376.1 crore. Affle indicated that despite being a seasonally strong quarter the revenue growth was little muted due to the pain visible in developed markets
  • The company’s India region reported revenue of | 137.3 crore, up 8.5% QoQ & 23.4% YoY while its international revenue reported muted growth of 0.6% QoQ & 5.6% YoY to | 246.4 crore. India and international markets grew 23% YoY each
  • Converted users during the quarter grew 4.8% QoQ & 15.9% YoY to 67.8 mn while average realisations remained flat sequentially at | 51. The company indicated that it let go some low pricing volume for the quarter which helped in holding realisations. Affle further said the average CPCU in emerging markets is higher than average CPCU in India region. The company reported CPCU revenue of | 345.8 crore, up 4.8% QoQ & 14.1% YoY
  • The company’s consumer platform business contributed majority of the revenue with 99.3% while the enterprise platform business contributed 0.7% of revenue. In consumer platform, CPCU contributed 91.9% of the mix with a revenue of |343.2 crore, up 4.9% QoQ & 13.1% YoY while Non-CPCU mix was 8.1%
  • EBITDA margins improved ~140 bps QoQ to 21.4% while EBITDA in absolute terms was |80.3 crore, up 13.5% QoQ. Margin improvement during the quarter was aided by lower data & inventory cost which declined by ~130 bps QoQ to 60.7% of revenue (declined by from peak of 63.9% of revenue in Q2FY22). The company indicated that the steady decline in inventory & data cost was due to its focus of increasing accretive CPCU revenue business. Affle added that as it scales up the business, the inventory & data cost will remain in ~60-65% of the revenue & will not increase linearly with respect to revenue growth. The company also added that during the quarter it rolled out wage hike in certain geographies at 4%
  • The company indicated that it expects lower converted users in Q4 as per historical trends as Q3 is seasonally strong quarter and clients tend to spend large chunk of their advertising budgets in Q3, leaving much small portion for Q4. Affle continues to maintain that they expect growth momentum to continue in CY23, FY24 and growth rates are likely to sustain. The company also maintained that it does not see any issues in growing at 25% CAGR for the next few years
  • In the developed markets the company indicated that it has witnessed advertising budget cut from the clients. Affle also indicated that the weakness was seen in certain clients & verticals across US & Europe regions. The company added that it is calibrating its model to cater to this structural shits. Affle also indicated that addressable market in US and Europe is huge and it is still scratching the surface in this region, which provides it with ample opportunity to grow as it continues to look to add new clients here
  • On the capital allocation policy of the company, the company mentioned that it is not looking to pay dividends in the first five years of listing as the cash will be used for business growth including any potential M&A. On the M&A front, it has identified target and will make disclosures at an appropriate time. The company also mentioned that unlike its earlier acquisition of Jampp where the target entity was merely breakeven at EBITDA level, Affle is now looking for a target with healthy EBITDA margins
  • On the Competition Commission of India’s (CCI) judgement on Google policy the company indicated that it is too early to comment on the same. The company also mentioned that its business is not built up in keeping in view of any particular operating system. Hence, it does not see any impact of this order on their business
  • The company also mentioned that it is not seeing trend of profitability pressure and corresponding advertisement budget cut spend in the Indian as well as emerging market where lot of conglomerates are continuing to go digital and spend on advertising to enhance their reach. As per the company, even large advertising companies like Google, Meta are looking to capture their next 100-200 mn customers from emerging markets. The company also mentioned that user acquisition in the emerging market continued to be the long term opportunity and the company is looking to capture this opportunity for long term sustainable growth
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q3FY23   Q3FY22   YoY (%)   Q2FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 376.1 339.4 10.8 354.6 6.1 Revenue growth aided by continued increase in converted users while realisation remained flat QoQ
Employee expenses 48.3 37.1 33.4 46.5 4.3  
Investory & data costs 228.1 215.4 6.5 220.0 4.1  
SG&A expenses 19.3 19.3 0.3 17.3 11.4  
             
EBITDA 80.3 67.7 18.7 70.8 13.5  
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.4 19.9 142 bps 20.0 140 bps Margin increased due to operating leverage
Depreciation & amortisation 13.5 9.9 37.2 13.0 3.8  
EBIT 66.8 57.8 15.5 57.7 15.7  
Finance cost 3.2 1.9 68.8 2.9 10.6  
EBIT Margin (%) 17.8 17.0 72 bps 16.3 148 bps  
Other income 16.5 14.4 14.2 12.8 28.6  
PBT 80.1 70.4 13.8 67.7 18.3  
Tax paid 11.0 8.1 35.7 8.7 26.1 ETR high in the quarter due to lower deferred tax
PAT 69.1 62.3 11.0 58.98 17.2  

Disclaimer

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