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Affle India Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,080.7 Chg : -7.90 (-0.73%)
  • Target : 1,350.0 (16.98%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

09 Nov 2022

Developed market impacts Q2; outlook strong

About The Stock

Affle India (Affle) is a technology platform that enables advertisers to do targeted advertising.

  • It helps advertisers to measure the effectiveness of advertisement as it charges only when a user downloads an app or completes a transaction
  • As on FY22, 99.1% business comes from consumer platforms while the rest comes from enterprise platforms
Q2FY23 Results

Affle reported weak Q2FY23 revenue numbers.

  • Revenue grew 2% QoQ. Converted users grew 4.5% QoQ
  • EBITDA margin improved ~20 bps QoQ to 20%
  • Realisation declined 2.1% QoQ
What should Investors do?

Affle’s share price has grown by ~6.6x since listing [from ~₹ 174 (adjusted for split) in August 2019 to ~₹ 1154 levels in November 2022].

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Affle at ₹ 1,350 i.e. 47x P/E on FY25E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Key beneficiary of a shift of advertising budget to digital medium
  • Six billion connected consumer devices to be added globally by 2025
  • Significant increase in India’s digital user base from 525 million (mn) in FY20 to 902 mn by FY25E at 11.4% CAGR while mobile ad spend is expected to rise at 32.4% CAGR in the same period
  • We expect 29.6% revenue growth in FY22-25E (organic & inorganic combined)
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Affle, in our IT coverage we also like Persistent

  • Consistent growth aided by continued strong TCV and inorganic opportunities
  •  BUY with a target price of ₹ 4370

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 333.8 516.8 1,081.7 59.5 1,460.2 1,883.7 2,354.6 29.6
EBITDA 87.9 130.3 213.1 47.1 299.3 395.6 506.2 33.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 26.3 25.2 19.7 - 20.5 21.0 21.5 -
Adjusted Net Profit 64.6 103.1 213.9 66.5 231.5 301.2 381.9 21.3
Adjusted EPS (|) 5.1 8.1 16.1 - 17.4 22.6 28.7 -
P/E 239.1 116.0 76.3 - 70.6 54.3 42.8 -
RoNW (%) 28.2 28.7 18.1 - 16.4 17.6 18.2 -
RoCE (%) 26.2 25.8 17.3 - 16.2 17.1 17.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported muted revenue growth of 2% QoQ and 29.1% YoY with revenue of | 354.6 crore. Affle indicated its revenue in H1 was impacted to the tune of US$3-4 mn due to macroeconomic headwinds in developed markets, especially the US and Europe
  • Converted users continued their strong growth increasing 4.5% QoQ and 32.9% to 64.7 mn but average realisation (CPCU) declined 2.1% QoQ to
    | 51, which ultimately resulted in consumer CPCU revenue of | 330 crore. Affle reported non CPCU revenue of | 24.6 crore
  • The company’s consumer platform business contributed 99.3% of the quarter’s revenue while the enterprise platform business contributed 0.7% of revenue. In consumer platform, 92.9% revenue came from CPCU model while 7.1% came from non-CPCU
  • EBITDA margins of the company were up marginally by ~20 bps QoQ to 20%. Affle’s employee cost increased 8.6% QoQ as it continues its investment in sales team, on ground presence in emerging markets and hiring in specific verticals. Despite this, margins of the company improved due to optimisation of inventory & data cost (remained flat during the quarter). The company indicated that it has further scope to rationalise data and inventory costs, going forward, as it continues to pick up volumes of better pricing
  • Affle’s international business contribution to revenue mix declined 190 bps QoQ to 67.8% while domestic businesses contribution was 32.1%. In
    rupee terms, the company’s international business reported revenue of
    | 240.8 crore, down 0.7% QoQ. The company also indicated that Jampp is fully integrated now and Jampp revenues in the quarter were impacted to the tune of potential loss number, it indicated
  • On India market, the company mentioned that it grew 10% QoQ this quarter. Growth is expected to be strong in H2 as well. The company mentioned that in this market Edtech, crypto sectors are not doing well but growth is coming from retail, education, travel, etc. The company mentioned that funding issues with a lot of start-ups continues but due to wide base of advertisers, growth in this market is expected to be strong
  • The company indicated that digital advertising adoption curve in India and emerging markets continue to be strong and is expected to be strong in coming years as well as time spent on mobile/tab continues to rise, especially from young generations. It mentioned that digital advertising for developed market forms 50% of the mix for emerging markets while it is still in the range of 20-30% for emerging markets depending on the country. It mentioned that there is significant scope for emerging markets to catch up developed markets, going forward. It also indicated that advertisers will continue to align their advertising budgets to digital advertising where more time is being spent
  • Developed market customers, especially in the US and Europe are feeling some heat due to high inflation, geopolitical factors, which will have some impact on digital advertising in this region in the near term. The company indicated that since Q3 is a seasonally strong quarter for them, growth in H2 is expected to be 10% higher than H1. The company expects industry growth to be in the range of 25-30% in FY23. Affle expects to outperform industry on growth on an organic basis. The company also indicated that it expects 25% CAGR in revenue growth in the next three to four years on organic level
  • The margin is improving over the last three quarters from 18.5% in Q4FY22 to 20% in Q2FY23. The company further indicated that it is focusing on profitability and margin improvement, going forward. The company indicated that it expects margin to improve further in H2FY23 and the following are focus areas for margin improvement

a)      Pricing: The company indicated that its pricing has been resilient despite a challenging macro scenario. Affle further indicated that it expects to sustain/improve its pricing, going forward, which would help to improve its margins

b)     Volume growth: The company indicated that it expects volume growth, going forward, at appropriate pricing, which will help it to maintain its margin improvement lever. Affle also indicated that it continues to strengthen its business development team to increase its user base which would lead higher volumes

c)      Operating leverage: The company indicated that it expects its costs to increase at a slower pace compared to revenue resulting in margin expansion

  • The company also indicated that due to developed market slowdown, there is an opportunity for a company like Affle to pick up a few assets for inorganic growth as valuations of some companies are now attractive. The company continues to look for such opportunities but also indicated that it is not looking to acquire a company for a scale purpose as the last three acquisitions that Affle did, were in the range of US$10-40 mn consideration. The company indicated that while evaluating the acquisitions it is mindful of i) acquisition consideration preferably in that similar range (US$10-40 mn) that it did historically, ii) baggage of risks the potential companies are carrying. iii) it is not looking at falling in size and cheap valuation trap
  • Regarding Bobble divestment, Affle continues to hold 26.24% stake in Bobble as the deal with South Korea based Krafton Inc. did not go through despite the extension of closing date due to certain regulatory hurdles. The company indicated that it is not pursuing this deal further. The investment continues to be categorised as ‘held for sale’
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 354.6 274.7 29.1 347.5 2.0 Revenue aided by 4.5% QoQ increase in converted users
Employee expenses 46.5 31.4 53.0 43.1 8.6  
             
Gross Margin 308.1 243.3 26.6 304.4 1.2  
Gross margin (%) 86.9 88.6 -169 bps 87.6 -70 bps  
SG&A expenses 237.3 191.3 24.0 235.7 0.7  
             
EBITDA 70.8 52.0 36.1 68.7 3.1  
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.0 18.9 103 bps 19.8 20 bps Margin increased due to lower inventory & data cost
Depreciation & amortisation 13.0 8.1 61.7 9.3 40.4  
EBIT 57.7 44.0 31.4 59.4 -2.7  
Finance cost 2.9 2.2 34.8 2.2 33.1  
EBIT Margin (%) 16.3 16.0 28 bps 17.1 -80 bps  
Other income 12.8 15.2 -15.8 6.8 89.3  
PBT 67.7 57.0 18.6 64.0 5.8  
Tax paid 8.7 9.2 -5.7 9.0 -3.2  
PAT 59.0 47.8 23.3 55.0 7.3 PAT increased due to higher other income & lower tax

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