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  • CMP : 1,676.5 Chg : -35.10 (-2.05%)
  • Target : 1,295.0 (17.30%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

09 Aug 2022

Strong performance…

About The Stock

Affle India (Affle) is a technology platform that enables advertisers to do targeted advertising.

  • It helps advertisers to measure the effectiveness of advertisement as it charges only when a user downloads an app or completes a transaction
  • As on FY22, 99.1% business comes from consumer platforms while the rest comes from enterprise platforms
Q1FY23 Results

Affle reported strong Q1FY23 numbers.

  • Converted users grew 9.4% driving 10.3% QoQ revenue growth
  • EBITDA margin increased ~120 bps QoQ to 19.8%
  • International revenue contributed 69.8% of the revenue mix
What should Investors do?

Affle’s share price has grown by ~6.3x since listing [from ~₹ 174 (adjusted for split) in August 2019 to ~₹ 1104 levels in August 2022].

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Affle at ₹ 1,295 i.e. 53x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Key beneficiary of a shift of advertising budget to digital medium
  • Six billion connected consumer devices to be added globally by 2025
  • Significant increase in India’s digital user base from 525 million (mn) in FY20 to 902 mn by FY25E at 11.4% CAGR while mobile ad spend is expected to rise at 32.4% CAGR in the same period
  • We expect 32% revenue growth in FY22-24E (organic & inorganic combined)
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Affle, in our IT coverage we also like Persistent

  • Consistent growth aided by continued strong TCV and inorganic opportunities
  •  BUY with a target price of ₹ 4200

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 249.4 333.8 516.8 1,081.7 59.5 1,460.2 1,883.7 32.0
EBITDA 70.3 87.9 130.3 213.1 47.1 314.0 423.8 41.0
EBITDA Margins (%) 28.2 26.3 25.2 19.7 - 21.5 22.5 -
Adjusted Net Profit 48.8 64.6 103.1 213.9 66.5 244.2 325.8 23.4
Adjusted EPS (|) 4.0 5.1 8.1 16.1 - 18.3 24.5 -
P/E 290.3 227.1 110.1 72.4 - 63.5 47.6 -
RoNW (%) 67.4 28.2 28.7 18.1 - 17.1 18.6 -
RoCE (%) 72.8 26.2 25.8 17.3 - 16.9 18.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Converted users increased 9.4% QoQ to 61.9 million (mn) (up 96.5% YoY) while average cost per converted user (CPCU) increased 2% QoQ (up 24% YoY) to | 52.1 resulting in 11.5% QoQ growth in consumer CPCU business revenue at | 322.5 crore (up 144% YoY)
  • At the company level (consumer+ enterprise), it reported revenues of
    | 347.5 crore for the quarter, up 10.3% QoQ and 127.9% YoY. The company indicated that 45% revenue growth on a YoY basis was organic while the rest has come from the inorganic route
  • EBITDA margins of the company were up ~130 bps QoQ to 19.8%. Despite strong growth, margin expansion was limited due to 10% QoQ increase in inventory and data costs
  • The company had indicated that Jampp EBITDA margins have reached 10% now vs. 0% a year ago and its contribution to EBITDA (absolute) in Q1 was less than 20%. The company mentioned that Jampp margins have been getting scaled up as per expectations. Affle continue to maintain that two years from now, it expects Jampp’s margins to be closer to the company’s EBITDA margins.
  • The company’s consumer platform business contributed 99.3% of the quarter’s revenue while the enterprise platform business contributed 0.7% of revenue
  • Affle’s International business contributed 69.8% of revenue mix for the quarter while India business contributed 30.2% of the revenue. The company also indicated that one of the factors behind increasing contribution of the international business is due to some of their clients having closed their India operations and wanting the company (Affle) to bill them from their international entities
  • Affle indicated that its investment across platform & product is contributing to the growth of the company. It indicated that Affle 2.0 will focus on Vernacular & Verticalisation with increase of OEM & operation level partnership for deeper verticalisation for increased advertisement revenue across E, F, G & H verticals
  • The company indicated that macroeconomic factors are expected to have minimum impact on the business operations of the company as i) its business model is RoI linked where advertisers have comfort on reaching their advertisement to the targeted user base, ii) the company’s targeted advertisers are largely from emerging markets and it has zero/marginal exposure to Europe/US market
  • Affle indicated that Google’s proposed policy on blocking third party cookies on browser has been deferred to 2024. The company says its business will not witness any impact due to the policy as it business model is app linked, not browser related. Affle also indicated that recent Google play store policy to block full screen ads has been targeted to the gaming section only to enhance user experience and Gaming forms <10% of its vertical mix
  • The company indicated that the long term growth prospects in emerging markets remain high as there is accelerated push for digitisation and Affle’s niche in android, which covers 90-95% of the mobile & connected devices market. The company maintained that the digital advertising market is expected to grow in the range of 25-30% and it expects it to outpace industry growth
  • Regarding Bobble divestment where it is currently holding 27% stake, it indicated that divestment is aimed to keep its cash position healthy and also giving opportunity to other investors to invest as Affle would like to be a significant minority shareholder and does not wish to hold more than 20% stake
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q1FY23   Q1FY22   YoY (%)   Q4FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 347.5 152.5 127.9 315.1 10.3 Highest quarterly revenue  led by highest conversion of 61.9 mn users
Employee expenses 43.1 18.8 142.3 42.4 1.8  
             
Gross Margin 304.4 133.7 127.6 272.7 11.6  
Gross margin (%) 87.6 87.7 -8 bps 86.5 106 bps  
SG&A expenses 235.7 98.6 139.1 214.3 10.0  
             
EBITDA 68.7 35.1 95.6 58.4 17.6  
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.8 23.0 -326 bps 18.5 123 bps Margin increased due to lower employee cost & lower inventory & data cost
Depreciation & amortisation 9.3 5.2 78.7 9.3 -0.4  
EBIT 59.4 29.9 98.6 49.0 21.0  
Finance cost 2.2 1.4 55.8 1.6 34.4  
EBIT Margin (%) 17.1 19.6 -252 bps 15.6 152 bps  
Other income (less interest) 6.8 12.7 -46.7 28.8 -76.5  
PBT 64.0 41.2 55.2 76.3 -16.1  
Tax paid 9.0 5.3 69.3 7.6 18.7  
PAT 55.0 35.9 53.2 68.7 -20.0 PAT was impacted by lower other income

Disclaimer

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