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  • CMP : 1,758.9 Chg : -12.50 (-0.71%)
  • Target : 2,600.0 (34.92%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

09 Feb 2023

Margin improves QoQ; scope for further expansion

About The Stock

ACC (now an Adani group company) is a large cement player with capacity of over 34.5 MT in India and one of the oldest cement players in the industry. The company also manufactures ready-mix concrete and has 50 plants across India.

  • ACC has a strong balance-sheet with debt free status. However, it remains a laggard in terms of efficiency vs. peer companies as of now
  • The ongoing capex of ₹ 3500 crore to increase its capacity to 39.3 MT. GU in Sindri & Tikaria is already been commissioned. Balance 3.2 MT new capacities are progressing and will be commissioned by March 2023
Q4CY22 Results:

ACC reported an enhanced operational performance during the quarter aided by a sharp reduction in power & fuel expenses

  • Revenue grew 7.4% YoY (14% QoQ) to ₹ 4537 crore (I-direct estimate:₹ 4522.7 crore)
  • Through better operational efficiency EBITDA/t increased to ₹ 492/t (I-direct estimate: ₹ 463/t, Q3CY22: ₹ 24, Q4CY21: ₹ 743)
  • Absolute EBITDA was at ₹ 379 crore (I-direct estimate: ₹ 351.9 crore, Q3CY22: ₹ 16 crore, Q4CY21: ₹ 556 crore). The company recorded exceptional expense worth ₹ 79 crore pertaining to one-time information technology transition cost. As a result, PAT fell 59.7% YoY to ₹ 113.2 crore
What should Investors do?

The valuations of ACC have declined sharply over the past one week. In terms of its valuation, the EV/tonne is trading now at $95/tonne (~9.0x EV/EBITDA), which is ~35% below replacement costs.

Target Price and Valuation

Given its comfortable valuations, we retain BUY rating on the stock with a revised target price of ₹ 2,600 i.e. 13x FY25E EV/EBITDA

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The ongoing expansion (₹ 3,500 crore capex) would increase ACC’s capacity to 39.3 MT by CY23 from 34.5 MT
  • The cost efficiency measures like higher share of renewable power, strong logistics support of group entities to drive margin expansion in the long run
  • Immediate cost benefits to come from royalty cost savings (~1% of revenue), raw material sourcing like flyash, coal on better terms
Alternate Stock Idea:

Besides ACC, in our cement sector coverage we also like UltraTech Cement.

  • It is a market leader with strong brand in the retail segment. It has a robust balance sheet and aims to become debt free by FY23E
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 8050/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars CY20 CY21 FY23E* 3 Year CAGR (%) FY22 FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (%)1
Net Sales 13,785.7 16,151.6 22,169.0 12.9 16,151.6 18,756.5 20,225.2 7.8
EBITDA 2,355.0 2,998.1 2,080.3 -1.3 2,998.1 2,628.8 3,171.4 1.9
EBITDA Margins (%) 17.1 18.6 9.4 - 18.6 14.0 15.7 -
Adjusted Net Profit 1,606.2 1,917.7 1,099.1 -7.3 1,917.7 1,795.8 2,175.2 4.3
EPS (|) 85.5 102.1 58.5 - 102.1 95.6 115.8 -
EV/EBITDA 12.4 9.2 15.2 - 9.2 10.7 8.9 -
EV/tonne ($) 125.4 114.4 121.6 - 0.0 102.7 102.9 -
RoNW 12.6 13.4 7.7 - 13.4 12.1 13.7 -
RoCE 14.7 17.6 10.2 - 17.6 16.2 18.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlights

  • The company maintained healthy capacity utilisation rate of ~85% during the quarter with volumes to the tune of 7.7 MT (I-direct estimate: 7.6 MT, up 3% YoY). As observed for other cement players, realisation has broadly remained flattish (QoQ) at | 5892/t. Revenue grew 7.4% YoY (14% QoQ) to | 4537 crore (I-direct estimate: | 4522.7 crore
  • Through better operational efficiency, production cost per tonne (QoQ) declined by ~ | 400/t to | 5400/t in Q4CY22 (I-direct estimate: | 5487/t). The major delta was driven through decline in power and fuel cost by | 456/t to | 1468/t. Fuel cost declined 17% QoQ to | 2.6/kcal. Freight expense also declined by | 134/t to | 1301/t mainly owing to shortened lead distance (307 km to 292 km) and higher dispatches through rail. EBITDA/t increased to
    | 492/t (I-direct estimate: | 463/t, Q3CY22: | 24, Q4CY21: | 743)
  • Absolute EBITDA was at |379 crore (I-direct estimate: |351.9 crore, Q3CY22: |16 crore, Q4CY21: | 556 crore). The company recorded exceptional expense worth | 79 crore pertaining to one-time information technology transition cost
  • Due to transport unions unworkable position on freight rate and distribution model, ACC decided to temporarily suspend operations at its Gagal plant in Himachal Pradesh
  • On the capex front, the 2.7 MT clinker and 1 MT grinding unit in Ametha has been delayed by six months to September 2023 vs. earlier guidance of March 2023. The 2.2 MT grinding unit at Salai Banwa, Uttar Pradesh, is likely to go on-stream by H1FY24E. The company has recently commissioned WHRS units at its Jamul (10 MW) and Kymore (12.4 MW) plants and aims to achieve a WHRS capacity of 75 MW in the near term

Key triggers for future price performance

New capacities to help gain lost ground from CY22E onwards

Over the past five years, the company has lost its market share to other large players with no major new capacities coming in place during this period either through greenfield route or M&A route. While industry capacity grew at a CAGR of 7%, the company managed to increase their capacity from 30.5 MT to 33 MT i.e. at 2% CAGR. As a result, the company’s production share declined from 14% in FY14 to 11% in FY20. To address this growth concern, the company is increasing its capacity to 39.3 MT with total capex of ~| 3500 crore. This would be mainly funded through internal accruals. Thus, we model a volume CAGR of 5.9% over FY22-25E and expect revenues to grow at 7.8% CAGR over the same period.

Cost rationalisation to bring efficiency…

  • The company was earlier paying royalties to Holcim group at ~1% of revenues. With Adani now being the promoter the company will be able to save ~| 175-180 crore on an annual basis, which works out to a saving of around | 55-60 on a per tonne basis
  • On the raw material front, the company is now better placed to source inputs such as flyash/imported coal/petcoke from Adani group on better terms. The company is aiming to reach WHRS capacity of 75 MW by 2024. With these, we expect annual cost savings in the range of | 100-150 on a per tonne basis. The company can also leverage on the renewable energy potential from Adani group, going ahead, for optimisation of its power & fuel costs. We await more clarity on the same to quantify the benefit
  • Further, the company can also leverage group network to bring down the freight cost further, which the earlier promoter was doing through master supply agreement with Ambuja. Overall, as per our rough estimates, we expect cost savings of | 300-350/tonne from the current run rate

Valuation & Outlook

The valuations of ACC have declined sharply over the past one week with prices of ACC declining by 24%. As the fundamentals of the sector and the company per se continue to stay strong, we believe that this sharp correction in the stock prices of both these companies offers a good opportunity to enter from a longer-term perspective. In terms of its valuation, the EV/tonne is trading now at $95/tonne (~9.0x EV/EBITDA), which is ~35% below the replacement cost for any companies with over 30 MT capacity. With the government likely to focus on infra growth backed by higher allocation to infrastructure (up 33% YoY to | 10 lakh crore), we expect the growth momentum to stay healthy for the sector. Accordingly, we maintain BUY rating with a revise target price | 2,600 (valuing at 13x FY25E EV/EBITDA implying an EV/t of ~$149).

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Rashesh Shah CA, Cheragh Sidhwa, MBA , Debotro Sinha MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

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Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

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Pankaj Pandey

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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