Union Budget 2023- Disinvestment target - a conservative estimate?

• FY24BE disinvestment target is pegged conservatively at Rs 51,000 crore
• We note that FY23RE estimates at Rs 50,000 crore (earlier estimate at
  Rs 65,000 crore) has been softer than anticipated, possibly on account of muted capital markets sentiments
• Furthermore, large ticket disinvestment is nearing closure. Timelines on IDBI Bank and Concor need to be watched
• We believe that a few earlier announced disinvestment (IDBI Bank, RINL, Concor and large zinc manufacturer) would be completed in FY24E
• The revised estimates of receipts from Other Communications services is
  Rs 68,754 crore for FY23 (vs. budgeted estimates of Rs 52,806 crore). We highlight that, as per our understanding, the receipts included licence fees & spectrum usage charges. Instalments were from 5G spectrum allocation to private telcos and instalment for 4G spectrum allocation for BSNL
• The expectation for receipts from Other Communications services is
  Rs 89,469 crore for FY24E. We believe the same includes expectation of instalment for 5G spectrum for BSNL next year
• Dividend from public sector enterprise revised estimates has been higher at Rs 43,000 crore in FY23 (FY23BE - Rs 40,000 crore). For FY24BE, the estimate has remained constant at Rs 43,000 crore
• Nationalised banks have declared dividends in FY23 (after a pause in previous fiscals), on the back of a recovery in performance. The same is likely to continue in FY24E
• Dividend/surplus from RBI, nationalised banks and financial institutions have been pegged lower at Rs 40,953 crore vs. budgeted Rs 73,948 crore, owing to lower dividend from RBI at Rs 30,307 crore

Source: Govt websites, media sources, DIPAM, ICICI Direct Research

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