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  • CMP : 914.6 Chg : -0.25 (-0.03%)
  • Target : 820.0 (13.10%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

01 Jun 2022

gRevlimid bumps exports; traction in near term…

About The Stock

Natco has, over the years, developed a knack for manufacturing complex generic products with few competitors, especially for the US market.

  • India formulations mainly comprise oncology products (38 brands). For the US, it follows partnership products for risky launches and acquired Dash Pharma for front-end presence. It has six FDF, two API manufacturing facilities and two crop health sciences units
  • Maiden entry into crop protection was via launch of pheromone product, Natmate PBW for controlling pink bollworm in cotton
  • FY22 revenue break-up - domestic business: 25%, international business: 62% (mainly from the US), APIs: 13%
Q4FY22

Revenues were buoyed by gains from gRevlimid, in the export formulation segment while Natco booked inventory write-off for Covid products of
₹ 232 crore and provisioning towards estimated credit loss of ₹ 46 crore.

  • Sales were up 80% YoY to ₹ 597 crore
  • Adjusted EBITDA for one-offs was at ₹ 259 crore, with margins at 43%
  • Booked loss of ₹ 50 crore vs. profit of ₹ 53 crore in Q4FY21
What should Investors do?

Natco’s share price de-grew 0.8x over past five years

  • We maintain HOLD rating on the stock due to 1) headwinds continuum in base business (both exports and domestic), 2) high risk-reward play (like Covid drugs) in crop protection and 3) traction from gRevlimid till additional competition sets in seems to be priced-in
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 820 (base business at ₹ 730 with 22x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 33.2 + ₹ 90 NPV for gRevlimid).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • US: Momentum likely amid contribution from gRevlimid, key being market formation post new competition. Focus on Para IV and FTF opportunities
  • India: Natco is a leading player in oncology segment with 38 products & new launches in cardio/diabetology, expanding portfolio remains key for growth
  • Plans to expand in other geographies & agrochemicals with India, Brazil, Canada, China, agrochemical segment, together likely to contribute 70-80% of revenues in the medium to long term
  • Inorganic opportunities in both domestic and export formulations
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Natco, in our healthcare coverage we like Ajanta.

  • Ajanta Pharma is a focused player in the branded space with strategy to launch maximum first time launches with new drug delivery system
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1955

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 2,094.5 1,915.0 2,052.1 1,944.8 -1.2 2,051.6 2,237.3 7.3
EBITDA 794.8 582.6 606.2 263.5 -17.4 745.7 860.6 80.7
EBITDA Margins (%) 37.9 30.4 29.5 13.5 - 36.3 38.5 -
Net Profit 644.4 460.8 440.9 170.0 -18.9 515.5 605.4 88.7
EPS (|) 35.3 25.2 24.2 9.3 - 28.2 33.2 -
PE (x) 20.5 28.7 30.0 77.8 - 25.7 21.9 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 16.6 23.1 21.6 50.2 - 16.9 14.1 -
RoNW (%) 18.5 12.2 10.7 4.0 - 11.0 11.6 -
RoCE (%) 21.3 14.0 13.1 4.6 - 13.3 14.1 -
Debt / Equity 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: gRevlimid drives Q4, one-offs hit profitability

  • Revenues grew 80% YoY to | 597 crore driven by 193% YoY growth in the export formulation business to | 465 crore mainly on back of gRevlimid sales. This was partly offset by de-growth of 8% YoY in the domestic formulation business to | 77 crore and 31% YoY decline in APIs to | 49 crore. EBITDA margins, adjusted for inventory write-off of | 232 crore and provisioning of | 46 crore, was at 43%. Adjusted EBITDA was at | 259 crore. Natco booked a loss of | 50.5 crore for the quarter vs. profit of | 53 crore in Q4FY21
  • Natco's revenue grew on account of a sharp uptick in exports. The company remains focused on the export business of gRevlimid to drive growth in FY23. Natco was carrying significant inventory of Covid products and write-off is mainly due to diminishing Covid opportunities. Going forward, launch momentum in the US post gRevlimid and traction for domestic business remain key aspects to watch

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Natco received profit share (30%) for gRevlimid supplies to Teva, post launch in March, 2022. About 70% of supplied product will be sold in FY23. The management expects Q1FY23 to be on similar lines to Q4FY22 and then contribution should taper off in Q2 and Q3. The gRevlimid gains are likely to shoot up again in Q4FY23 as per the terms of launch. gRevlimid is also doing well in Canada, with Natco having 40-50% of market share
  • In the base US business, the management indicated Copaxone is steady while Afinitor is doing well (~30% of base business in exports). Natco is the sole generic for Afinitor in Brazil and also expects to launch in Canada. The management indicated at ex-Revlimid, exports base business to be less than | 300 crore. Natco also filed three FTF although all were small opportunities
  • In the domestic market, inability to grow the base business remains a challenge with very little spread of portfolio. The management indicated at domestic formulations base business of | 400 crore and is aiming at 10-12% growth in FY23. Natco has started a division to target general physicians. PCPM is at | 8-10 lakh
  • Natco is carrying agrochemical inventory of | 85 crore. Amid legal challenges related to patent infringement for CTPR, it remains a risk
  • The management guided for incremental spend on R&D and also remains on the lookout for inorganic opportunities in both domestic and export markets

 

Variance Analysis


  Q4FY22 Q4FY21 Q3FY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 596.8 331.3 560.5 80.1 6.5   YoY increase due to uptick in exports amid contribution from gRevlimid
Raw Material Expenses 296.3 54.5 93.0 443.7 218.6    
Employee Expenses 109.3 94.6 118.2 15.5 -7.5    
Other Expenditure 209.8 106.0 247.5 97.9 -15.2    
Total Operating Expenditure 615.4 255.1 458.7 141.2 34.2    
EBITDA -18.6 76.2 101.8 PL PL   Adjusted EBITDA at | 259 crore, adjusting for inventory write-off of | 232 crore and provisioning of | 46 crore 
EBITDA (%) -3.1 23.0 18.2 -2612 bps -2128 bps   EBITDA margins adjusted for inventory write-off of | 232 crore and provisioning of | 46 crore at 43%
Interest 6.7 3.5 5.0 91.4 34.0    
Depreciation 38.1 30.4 36.0 25.3 5.8    
Other Income 13.8 28.4 30.2 -51.4 -54.3    
EO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
PBT -49.6 70.7 91.0 PL PL    
Tax  0.9 17.7 10.6 -94.9 -91.5    
PAT before MI -50.5 53.0 80.4 PL PL    
MI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
Adj.Net Profit -50.5 53.0 80.4 PL PL    
Key Metrics              
Domestic formulations 76.9 83.1 100.6 -7.5 -23.6   YoY decline amid inability to grow base business (ex-Covid)
Export Formulations 465.1 158.8 383.1 192.9 21.4   YoY increase due to gains from gRevlimid in Q4FY22
APIs 48.6 70.8 61.7 -31.4 -21.2    


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