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  • CMP : 3,679.6 Chg : 14.40 (0.39%)
  • Target : 1,550.0 (25.51%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

12 Aug 2022

Cost focus & new launches to yield promising growth

About The Stock

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is a conglomerate with presence in auto, IT, financial services, logistics, hospitality and real estate among others. At standalone level it is India’s largest tractor manufacturer (~40% FY22 market share) & second largest CV, fourth largest PV maker (24.7%, 7.4% FY22 market share)

  • FY22 standalone revenue mix – ~62% automotive, ~34% tractors
Q1FY23

The company posted steady Q1FY23 results

  • Standalone net sales rose 14.5% QoQ to ₹19,613 crore
  • EBITDA margins at 11.9% were up 57 bps QoQ
  • Standalone PAT for the quarter came in at ₹1,430.2 crores up 10.7% QoQ   
What should Investors do?

Stock price has grown at ~12% CAGR from ~₹710 levels in August 2017, outperforming the wider Nifty Auto index.

  • We retain BUY rating amidst new launches led healthy demand prospects across M&M’s product profile and tangible steps towards EV transformation
Target Price and Valuation

We value M&M at SOTP-based target price of ₹1,550 (10x FY24E standalone EV/EBITDA; 30% hold co. discount to investments, ₹225/share value accrued pursuant to recently equity raise for Electric PV arm).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We build 17.1%, 23.4% total volume, sales CAGR over FY22-24E on the back of healthy order book amidst robust consumer response to new launches.
  • With operating leverage benefits at play, improving product mix (higher share of premium models in PV space) & focus on optimizing cost; we expect 12.7% EBITDA margins and ~14% standalone RoCE by FY24E.  
  • Consistent focus on prudent capital allocation (>18% RoCE), aggressive EV launch plans, dominant position in rural markets to act as positives.
  • Capex spends to build capacities in response to robust demand prospects
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from M&M, in our OEM coverage we like Tata Motors.

  • Long term value drivers (EV transition, deleveraging & FCF focus) intact

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹530

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 53,614.0 45,487.8 44,629.9 57,446.0 5.5 76,519.8 87,502.6 23.4
EBITDA 6,639.6 5,798.0 6,957.5 7,042.3 9.3 8,800.9 11,099.5 25.5
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.4 12.7 15.6 12.3 - 11.5 12.7 -
Net Profit 4,796.1 1,330.4 984.2 4,935.2 6.3 5,814.3 7,230.7 21.0
Adjusted Net Profit 4,818.6 2,190.4 2,303.2 5,100.4 9.6 5,845.5 7,230.7 19.1
EPS (₹) 40.2 11.2 8.2 41.4 - 48.7 60.6 -
P/E 30.7 110.7 149.7 29.9 - 25.3 20.4 -
RoNW (%) 14.1 6.4 6.6 13.1 - 13.5 14.9 -
RoCE (%) 12.3 8.8 10.0 9.3 - 11.4 13.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q1FY23 Results:

  • M&M’s automotive revenues rose by 1.9% QoQ to ₹12,306.3 crores amid flat QoQ volumes (1.53 lakh units) & 3.6% ASP growth to ₹8.01 lakh/unit. Tractor revenues grew by 54.6% QoQ to ₹6,688.6 crore tracking 63% volume growth (1,18,509 units) and 5% lower ASPs at ₹5.64 lakh/unit.
  • Standalone EBITDA in Q1FY23 stood at ₹ 2,341 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 11.9% (up 57 bps QoQ). Gross margin decline for the quarter was at ~25 bps QoQ, however savings were realised in other expenses which in Q1FY23 were down 72 bps on QoQ basis. For Q1FY23, automotive segment posted ~10 bps increase in EBIT margins QoQ to 5.7% while tractor segment EBIT margins grew by ~30 bps QoQ to 16%.
  • PAT for the quarter came in at ₹ 1,430.2 crore up 10.7% QoQ. PAT came in lower than our estimates primarily tracking lower than expected margins and lower other income.
  • M&M’s performance is not strictly comparable on YoY basis as it has restated base quarter numbers pursuant to absorption of MVML into M&M.

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • M&M continues to counts itself as a market leader in SUV space with Q1FY23 revenue market share pegged at 17.1% vs 17.8% in Q4FY22, also company continues to dominate electric 3W space with 74.4% market share. On tractor front, M&M expanded its market share to 42.7% levels.
  • Automotive volumes lost due to cancellation (amid elongated waiting period) during the quarter to 10-12% of order book (at same levels as of Q4FY22). However, current order book is strong at >1.4 lakh units (ex- Scorpio N) including 79,000+ units for XUV700. Scorpio N has achieved milestone of getting ~1 lakh bookings within 30 minutes of opening translating into $2.3 billion (~₹18,000 crores) sales equivalent.
  • Company is likely to launch facelifted Scorpio Classic in August 2022.
  • Management expects tractor industry to grow mid-single digit in FY23 (3-5%) and ~7-8% CAGR over the longer term i.e. 7-8 years.
  • Company remains committed towards it RoCE target of 18% through greater focus on cost control measures & better profitable growth at its international farm subsidiaries.
  • Company informed loss in production due to chip shortage to extent of 10% as bookings are generally for higher end variants requiring greater number of chips.
  • Company remains on track to unveil its first born electric concept on 15th August, 2022. Further company is not planning for Hybrid and would purely focus on EVs.

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I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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