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  • CMP : 984.0 Chg : -10.30 (-1.04%)
  • Target : 1,970.0 (16.98%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 Apr 2023

In line Q4; investment in infrastructure to drive growth

About The Stock

HDFC Bank is a leading private sector bank with consistent growth and operational performance over various cycles. The bank has maintained superior return ratios compared to its peers resulting in premium valuations.

  • Largest private sector bank with loan book of ₹ 16 lakh crore
  • Consistent performance with +4% NIM and +15% RoE in past many years
Q4FY23

In line operational performance; lower credit cost aided PAT.

  • Healthy loan growth at 16.9% YoY to ₹ 16 lakh crore; deposits up 20.8%
  • NII up 23.7% YoY, NIMs steady at 4.1%, C/I up at 42% led by elevated opex
  • Credit cost declined to 0.67%, PAT up 19.8% YoY at ₹ 12047 crore
  • GNPA & NNPA improved to 1.12% and 0.27% QoQ, respectively
What should Investors do?

HDFC Bank’s share price has grown by ~2x in the past three years. Focus on building distribution capabilities (branch, human resource and technology) is expected to help withstand competition and drive future business growth though merger with HDFC Ltd to remain in the highlight in the near term.

  • We remain positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

HDFC Bank is expected to deliver higher than industry growth with RoA of ~2% in FY25E. We value HDFC Bank at ~2.9x FY25E ABV & ₹ 50 for subsidiaries and revise target price from ₹ 1920 to ₹ 1970/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Repricing of liabilities to get partially offset by new fixed rate book at higher rates leading to marginal pressure on NIMs in the near term. Structural change in asset mix to keep margins in the stated band of 3.9-4.4%
  • Focus on strengthening distribution infrastructure to keep opex elevated, accrual of benefit over medium term to result in reduction of CI ratio
  • Focus on liabilities accretion (through branch expansion, customer additions & relationship building with existing customer), steady asset quality and healthy provision buffer to aid growth and RoA
Alternate Stock

Apart from HDFC Bank, we also like Axis Bank.

  • Strong liabilities franchise, adequate capitalisation and healthy provision buffer to aid business growth as well as earnings trajectory
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1100

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
NII 56,186.0 64,880.0 72,010.0 86,842.0 16.0 99,420.0 115,407.0 15.0
PPP 48,750.0 57,362.0 64,077.0 70,405.0 13.0 84,055.0 97,987.0 18.0
PAT 26,257.0 31,117.0 36,961.0 44,109.0 19.0 52,076.0 60,425.0 17.0
ABV (|) 305.4 361.3 425.0 494.3 - 560.5 659.4 -
P/E 35.4 30.0 20.4 21.4 - 18.1 15.6 -
P/ABV 5.5 4.7 3.2 3.4 - 3.0 2.6 -
RoA 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 - 2.0 2.0 -
RoE 16.4 16.6 16.7 17.0 - 17.3 17.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY (%) Q3FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 23,351.8 22,985.9 18,872.7 23.7 22,987.8 1.6 Driven by healthy loan growth and steady NIMs
NIM (%) 4.1 4.0 4.0 2.5 4.1 0.0  
Other Income 8,731.2 8,934.8 7,637.1 14.3 8,499.8 2.7 Primary driven by growth in fee & comission income
Net Total Income 32,083.0 31,920.7 26,509.8 21.0 31,487.7 1.9  
Staff cost 4,362.1 4,245.3 3,144.6 38.7 4,126.2 5.7  
Other Operating Expenses 9,100.1 8,339.7 7,008.2 29.8 8,337.4 9.1 C/I ratio inched up to 42% on sequential basis
PPP 18,620.9 19,335.7 16,357.0 13.8 19,024.1 -2.1  
Provision 2,685.4 3,361.1 3,312.4 -18.9 2,806.4 -4.3 Credit cost further moderated to 0.67%
PBT 15,935.5 15,974.7 13,044.7 22.2 16,217.6 -1.7  
Tax 3,888.1 3,993.7 2,989.5 30.1 3,958.1 -1.8  
PAT 12,047.5 11,981.0 10,055.2 19.8 12,259.5 -1.7 Earnings in-line with estimates led by healthy topline
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 18,019 19,327 16,141 11.6 18,764 -4.0 Slippages at ~1.2% (annualised)
NNPA 4,368 5,085 4,408 -0.9 5,024 -13.1  
Advances 16,00,586 16,00,500 13,68,821 16.9 15,06,809 6.2 Growth driven by retail and commercial segment
Deposits 18,83,395 18,80,000 15,59,217 20.8 17,33,204 8.7 CASA up 11.3% YoY

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Global market volatility, risks from slowdown and geopolitical tensions may impact growth
  • Focus will be on granular deposit base continuing. The bank is on track to keep building distribution capabilities. LCR was ~116% during the quarter
  • Retail segment growth of 20% YoY was driven by home and personal loans. Growth in wholesale segment was driven by NBFCs, telecom, PSUs and retail sector. Higher share of retail assets to keep credit cost lower and result in steady RoAs
  • Esop expenses during the quarter was | 300 crore. Opex was higher mainly on account of branch addition (~638 branches added in Q4FY23)
  • Slippage ratio was at 28 bps (| 4900 crore). Recoveries and upgrades were
    | 3300 crore (22 bps), write-offs were | 2400 crore (17 bps). No sale of NPA during the quarter. Total restructured book was at 37 bps (Covid restructured book was 31 bps vs. 50 bps in Q3FY23)
  • Provisions during the quarter include contingent provision of | 300 crore (PCR at 76%). Outstanding provisions buffer includes | 9700 crore contingent provisions and floating provision of | 1450 crore
  • Overall deposit accretion at | 1.5 lakh crore in Q4FY23. Retail deposit growth higher at 23.5% YoY in Q4FY23 with absolute accretion at ~| 1,07,000 crore
  • Repricing of liabilities to get partially offset by new fixed rate asset book at higher rates leading to marginal pressure on NIMs in near term. Structural change in asset mix to keep margins in stated band of 3.9-4.4%
  • Total 45% book is at fixed rate (that runs for two to three years), MCLR linked loans were 6% of total book with very low volume at shorter end of tenure. Thus, recent reduction in MCLR rates do not seem to have a substantial impact
  • The bank added 638 branches during Q4FY23 and 1479 in FY23. The pace of branch expansion will continue in FY24
  • Gold loans offered in 4182 branches (3x increase over FY22). Wealth management business offered in 923 branches via hub and spoke model
  • With respect to merger, the bank is on track and expects the merger to get completed by June-July 2023

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.     

 

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