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  • CMP : 257.5 Chg : -1.75 (-0.68%)
  • Target : 155.0 (19.23%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 Oct 2022

Strong quarter with all-round performance…

About The Stock

Federal Bank is an old private sector bank based out of Kerala with 1305 branches and 1876 ATM across various states.

  • Market share in advances and deposits was at 1.24% and 1.08%, respectively, as of September 2022
  • Balanced loan mix with retail: wholesale mix of 54:46
Q2FY23

Strong performance on growth, earnings and asset quality.

  • Advances grew 19.4% YoY, 6.1% QoQ at ₹ 1.63 lakh crore. Deposits were up 10% YoY, CASA growth at 11% YoY
  • NII up 19.1% YoY, 9.8% QoQ. NIMs up ~10 bps QoQ at 3.3%
  • GNPA down 23 bps QoQ to 2.4%. Restructured book at 1.98%
What should Investors do?

Federal Bank’s share price has increased ~37% in the past year. The management maintained its growth guidance for FY23E. With healthy business traction, steady asset quality and provisioning to aid earnings growth.

  • Thus, we upgrade our rating from HOLD to BUY
Target Price and Valuation

Federal Bank is expected to deliver credit growth higher than industry growth and RoA of ~1.25% in FY24E. Thus, we value Federal Bank at ~1.5x FY24E ABV and revise our target price from ₹ 135 to ₹ 155 per share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The management has guided for advances growth to be in high teens and deposits growth to be in early teens. In addition, partnerships with fintechs will enhance deposit franchise
  • Bank’s focus on high yielding products (CV/CE, micro, credit cards & personal loans) to aid yields
  • Sustainable business growth, steady margins at ~3.3% and exit RoA of ~1.25% in FY23-24E is encouraging
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides Federal, in our coverage we also like IndusInd Bank.

  • IndusInd Bank is a Hinduja group promoted newer age private sector bank with a strong pan-India presence of 5939 branches
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1330

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
NII 4,176.3 4,648.9 5,533.7 5,962.0 12.6 6,933.4 8,256.0 17.7
PPP 2,763.1 3,204.7 3,786.9 3,757.9 10.8 4,451.2 5,363.0 19.5
PAT 1,243.9 1,542.6 1,590.3 1,889.8 15.0 2,531.8 3,061.1 27.3
ABV (|) 58.6 64.8 72.9 82.7 - 90.1 101.6 -
P/E 20.7 16.8 16.3 14.5 - 10.8 8.9 -
P/ABV 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 - 1.4 1.3 -
RoE (%) 9.8 11.1 10.4 10.8 - 12.8 13.9 -
RoA (%) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 - 1.1 1.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 1,762 1,802 1,479 19.1 1,605 9.8 Driven by healthy business growth & margin expansion
NIM (%) 3.30 3.32 3.20 10 bps 3.22 8 bps  
Other Income 610 472 492 24.0 453 34.7 Led by strong growth in retail and treasury
               
Net Total Income 2,371 2,273 1,971 20.3 2,057 15.3  
Staff cost 516 643 572 -9.8 499 3.3  
Other Operating Expenses 643 619 487 32.1 584 10.1 Higher spends due to increased business volumes
               
PPP 1,212 1,011 912 32.9 973 24.5  
Provision 268 148 293 -8.5 167 60.7 Credit cost marginally up QoQ to 0.53%
PBT 944 864 619 52.5 807 17.1  
Tax Outgo 241 216 159 51.2 206 16.8  
PAT 704 648 460 52.9 601 17.2 Healthy business growth aided PAT
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 4,031 3,998 4,446 -9.3 4,155 -3.0 Moderation in slippages to 0.96% from 1.2% QoQ
NNPA 1,262 1,402 1,502 -16.0 1,420 -11.1  
Advances 1,63,958 1,63,956 1,37,313 19.4 1,54,391 6.2 Loan growth driven by across segments
Deposit 1,89,146 1,89,146 1,71,995 10.0 1,83,355 3.2 CASA up 11% YoY, though CASA ratio moderated by 43 bps QoQ

 

Q2FY23 Concall Highlights - 

  • The management has maintained its guidance for FY23E. NIMs are expected at ~3.3%, slippages at | 900-1000 crore (in H2FY23), credit cost of 50-55 bps, PCR of 67.5% with exit RoA of ~1.25%
  • Margin is guided to remain at 3.2-3.4% in FY23-24E led by effective transmission of interest rates hike, lower incremental slippages
  • Partnership with fintechs contributed ~10-12% of total incremental deposits. CD ratio likely to be in mid-80% levels. The management guided that deposits growth to be in early teens and advances growth to be in higher teens
  • Credit card business has shown significant growth supported by fintech partnerships. Fee income growth was led by higher volumes during the quarter
  • In business banking, growth was across segments and not region specific. In corporate banking, working capital demand is driving growth. Gold loan portfolio quality is quite strong. Thus, NPAs are negligible
  • The bank will be able to meet credit demand by deposit accretion with branch expansion, selective borrowings, remittances and partnership with fintechs
  • The bank has upfronted major deliverables in the current year. Hence, opex is higher. For FY23E, CI ratio to be in the range of 48% to 49%
  • During the quarter, the bank has increased PCR by 238 bps, which resulted in increase in provisions to the tune of | 40 crore. The bank has made excess provision of | 138 crore
  • Out of total restructured book, ~30% is yet to come out of moratorium in H2FY23
  • The management aims to add 30-40 branches by FY23E
  • The bank has no plan to raise capital in H2FY23


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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

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