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  • CMP : 495.0 Chg : -6.75 (-1.35%)
  • Target : 680.0 (28.54%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

06 May 2022

Agri-economy growth to improve rural consumption

About The Stock

Dabur India (DIL) is one of the biggest FMCG companies with a presence in Ayurveda based products across categories. The company has a dominant market share in health supplement, OTC & Ethical products, hair oils & Juices. Moreover, it is continuously gaining market share in Oral care category.

  • The company has a total distribution reach of 6.9 million retail out with direct reach of 1.3 million outlets. It would increase direct distribution to 1.5 million outlets in the next two years. Dabur also derives ~50% of its sales through rural regions with presence in 90,000 villages
Q4-FY22 Results

Dabur reported stable 7.7% pricing led revenue growth

  • Sales were up 7.7% YoY aided by 5.6% pricing & 2% volumes growth
  • EBITDA was at Rs 453.6 crore, up 2.5 YoY, with margins at 18%
  • Consequent adjusted PAT was flat at Rs 379.3 crore
What should Investors do?

Dabur’s share price has given 88.4% return in last five years (from Rs 280 in May 2017 to 529 in May 2022)

  • We believe Dabur is best placed to curb margin pressure given its low dependence on crude based raw material
  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 680 on ascribing 52x FY24 earnings multiple

Key triggers for future price performance
  • Though commodity inflation has impacted consumer sentiments & margins in near term, DIL could benefit from high growth in agri-economy due to increasing agri exports & in turn expected improvement in rural growth
  • Increasing the addressable market by diversifying in categories like fruit drinks, health foods (under Real brand), herbs & baby products under Dabur brand & extending Chyawanprash, Honey into new variants
  • Extensive rural distribution expansion, increasing direct distribution reach & ecommerce presence to support newer & under-penetrated category sales
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like TCPL in our FMCG coverage

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in India market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value the stock at Rs 910 on ascribing 52x FY24 earnings multiple

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR % (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 8,703.6 9,561.7 10,888.7 7.2 11,997.4 13,343.1 - 10.7
EBITDA 1,792.4 2,002.7 2,253.8 8.4 2,456.3 2,785.8 - 11.2
EBITDA Margin % 20.6 20.9 20.7 - 20.5 20.9 - -
Net Profit 1,447.9 1,694.9 1,742.3 6.4 2,053.4 2,304.8 - 15.0
EPS (|) 8.2 9.6 9.9 6.3 11.6 13.0 - 15.0
P/E 64.6 55.2 53.7 - 45.6 40.6 - -
RoNW % 21.9 22.1 20.8 - 22.5 22.8 - -
RoCE (%) 26.1 24.5 24.9 - 25.5 26.4 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY22 Results: Rural consumption to get a boost from high exports

  • Dabur witnessed revenue growth of 7.7% to Rs 2517.8 crore led by 7.6% growth in standalone business (domestic) & 8.2% growth in subsidiaries (international business). The growth is largely driven by prices
  • The quarter saw strong growth of 33.5% in foods & beverage business led by Juices (saw 35% growth). The company saw 610 bps increase in market share in juices & nectars. food (homemade) portfolio clocked Rs 100 crore sales in FY22. The company launched Cold Pressed Groundnut Oil & Virgin Coconut Oil in edible oil portfolio
  • Despite high base of health-supplement (Chyawanprash, Honey), the category reported 9.7% sales growth. OTC-& ethical sales grew by 7.5% & home care category saw strong growth of 11%
  • However, oral care, hair oils & shampoos witnessed muted 1.1%, 2.6% & 5.6% sales growth on high base & saturation in category growth. Digestives also recorded dismal 1.2% sales growth. Skin & saloons category saw degrowth of 10.6%. The company launched Hajmola Amla Candy in Digestives during the quarter
  • DIL saw market share gain in ‘Chyawanprash’ & Honey to the tune of 250 bps & 300 bps respectively. Home care brands Odonil & Odomos gained market share by 40 & 220 bps, respectively
  • The growth in international business was led by 12% sales growth in Egypt, 24.8% growth in Africa, 11.2% growth in Namaste (US) & 47.2% growth in Hobi. The MENA region sales was flat & Saarc region sales growth was also muted at 5.4%
  • The new product launches (Innovation) is now contributing 5% to the sales with multiple new products launched in last two years. Despite relatively slower pace of innovation in future, contribution of new products would continue to remain 4-5%
  • The company has increased its direct distribution network to 1.3 million outlets & rural reach has increased to 90,0000 villages. Ecommerce channel contributing 6.5% to the sales
  • Oral care category saw a decline by 5% but the company registered growth of 2.5% gaining market share by 20 bps. ‘Dabur Red’ led the growth with 5.5% sales growth. There seems to be down trading in oral care due to adverse rural market sentiments. Cut back in consumer promotions has also impacted growth in the category
  • With the steep increase in commodity prices (crude based packaging), gross margins contracted 130 bps. Employee & marketing spends were down (percentage to sales) by 40 bps & 63 bps, respectively. However, overhead spends were up by 65 bps. Operating profit grew at a slower pace of 2.5% to Rs 453.6 crore whereas operating margins were down by 92 bps to 18% mainly on account of lower gross margins
  • The contraction in gross margins is mainly due to crude based costs like liquid paraffin & HDPE. The inflation for the company is closer to 9% and has taken 7-8% price hikes. It may require to take price hikes further to protect margins given raw material inflation continue to rise unabated
  • Juices & nectars market has grown by 9% in Q4 due to early start of summer. With robust growth, the company gained market share to the tune of 610 bps. The newly launched fruit drinks sales touched |100 crore mark
  • The high overhead spends was mainly on account of freight cost due to high growth in food & beverage segment. Further, shortage of capacity in beverage led to the higher outsourcing & increased processing costs
  • The reported net profit was down by 22% to Rs 294.3 crore on account of Rs 85 crore exceptional expense due to goodwill impairment in Turkey Subsidiary ‘Hobi Kozmetic’ due to currency de-valuation. Adjusting for this exceptional expense, PAT was flat at Rs 379.3 crore. The company proposed a final dividend of Rs 2.7 /share & total dividend stands at Rs 5.2 / share for FY22
  • The capex for the year is likely to Rs 400 crore and income tax is likely to be 22-23% in FY23

Terms & conditions and Other Disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal MBA (FINANCE) Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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