loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 1,433.3 Chg : -26.20 (-1.80%)
  • Target : 1,780.0 (3.49%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

18 May 2023

Upbeat operating performance…

About The Stock

Astral is the leader in the CPVC piping segment and expanding into other building material business like adhesive, paints and sanitary ware.

  • Astral is the third largest piping company with a value market share of 9.6%. In FY23, plumbing, paints & adhesives contributed 73%, 27%, respectively, to its topline
  • Healthy b/s reflected in strong return ratios (RoE: 17%, RoCE: ~21%)
Q4FY23 Results

Lower raw material costs support margin expansion

  • Consolidated revenue increased 8.3% YoY to ₹ 1506 crore, driven by ~25% YoY growth in adhesive & paints segment to ~₹ 383 crore. Piping segment revenue grew 3.6% YoY to ₹ 1123.5 crore. Piping segment volume grew 15% YoY led by strong demand & new product launches
  • Gross margin  increased by ~692 bps YoY (573 bps QoQ) supported by low raw material prices. As a result, EBITDA margin increased by~492 bps to 20.5%
  • PAT grew by ~38% YoY to ₹ 199 crore tracking EBITDA margin expansion
What should Investors do?

Astral’s share price has grown by ~4.1x over the past five years (from ~₹ 419 in May 2018 to ~₹ 1720 levels in May 2023).

We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock

Target Price and Valuation

We value Astral at ₹ 1780 i.e. 55x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Beneficiary of increased government capex of ₹ 69,684 crore for Jal Jeevan mission to provide tap water connections to 19.3 crore households
  • Entrance in newer high margin businesses such as valves, faucets, sanitaryware and paints to drive profitability
  • Greenfield expansion in Hyderabad with capacity of 70,000 M.T. by FY26E
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Supreme Industries in the same space.

  • Supreme is a market leader in plastic piping segment with ~15% market share. Robust b/s with average RoE, RoCE of 23%, 26%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3200

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 Year CAGR (18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (23-25E)
Net Sales 2,577.9 3,176.3 4,394.0 5,158.5 0.2 6,668.9 7,719.9 0.2
EBITDA 442.9 644.5 755.3 809.9 0.2 1,066.5 1,327.6 0.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.2 20.3 17.2 15.7 - 16.0 17.2 -
Net Profit 249.6 408.2 490.4 459.5 0.2 679.5 864.4 0.4
EPS (|) 16.6 20.3 18.2 17.1 - 25.3 32.1 -
P/E(x) 103.8 84.6 94.3 100.7 - 68.1 53.5 -
Price/book value (x) 17.2 18.2 19.9 17.1 - 14.9 12.7 -
Mcap/sales (x) 17.9 14.6 10.5 9.0 - 6.9 6.0 -
RoE (%) 16.6 21.5 21.1 17.0 - 21.9 23.8 -
RoCE (%) 20.5 27.5 26.7 21.3 - 26.2 28.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY23 Results: Strong operating performance driven by growth across segments

  • Astral’s consolidated revenue grew 8.3% YoY to | 1506.2 crore in Q4FY23 driven by ~25% revenue growth in the adhesives & paints segment. Consolidation of paints business helped drive revenue of the segment, Paints business reported revenue of ~| 58 crore in Q4. Piping revenues grew ~3.6% YoY led by 15% YoY increase in volume offtake. Higher volume offtake was on account of pick up in construction activities and launch of new products.
  • Usage of low-cost inventory and lower raw material prices led to improvement in gross margin by 692 bps YoY. This has resulted in improvement in EBITDA margin by ~492 bps YoY to 20.5%
  • Expansion of EBITDA margin coupled with lower interest outgo (down ~1.6x YoY) resulted in ~38% YoY growth in PAT to | 199 crore

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Plumbing segment (Pipes, fittings, water tanks, faucets and sanitary ware):
    • The piping industry is pegged at | 37000 crore in India. Astral commands ~9.6% market share in the overall piping industry. It is market leader in the CPVC pipe segment
    • The management has reiterated piping segment volume growth of 15% over the next five years as against industry volume growth of ~10%.
    • According to the management, launch of new products, dealer additions in the new geographies and market share gains from unorganized players will continue drive volume growth for the company. The company expects strong growth in the newly launched water tank and valve business over the next five years
    • Looking at robust demand in southern market, Astral is planning to set up a new green field plant at Hyderabad with capacity of 70,000 MT with an investment of ~| 100 crore. The plant will be completed in phase manner by FY26
    • The company has also planned to start manufacturing capacity in Guwahati to serve eastern markets. The plant will be on leased and the capex will be only for machineries.
    • Astral Plans to increase its pipe manufacturing capacity by ~16% to 3.4 lakh MT by the end of FY25.
    • Company plans to double its infra pipes (DRAINPRO, SILENCI) manufacturing capacity in FY24 due to strong demand led by increased government spends on infra related work.
    • Company’s water tank revenue increased 2.2x in FY23 to | 94 crore. New product launch and dealer expansion in the new geographies helped drive overall segment revenue
    • The company has started receiving revenue from its valves business and company plans to push the product into international markets.
    • The company has set up a new manufacturing plant in Jamnagar for the manufacturing of faucets. Company clocked faucets revenue of | 22 crore in FY23. The company has total 383 showrooms/display centres and plans to add another 177 showrooms/display in the various states by the end of FY24
  • Adhesives & Paints:
    • The adhesive industry is pegged at | 18000 crore in India wherein Astral market share stands at 4.7%. The industry is likely to grow at CAGR of 10% supported by increased construction activities and housing demand. Company’s domestic adhesive business is likely to grow ~15% led by market share gains through new product launches and dealer additions
    • In the adhesive segments Company’s user based are classified into four subcategories in the adhesive segments 1) Maintenance 2) wood 3) constructions 4) Industrials
    • In the Paint division the company has clocked revenue of | 216 crore with EBITDA margin of 14.5%. Decorative and industrial paints contribute 50% each in the revenue.
    • No major capex in the paint segments, as the current capacity (at peak utilisation) has potential to generate revenue of | 800 crore.
    • The company will leverage its existing dealer network to drive segment revenue in the next few years
    • Paints – Paint business has grown by 15% in 9MFY23 and the company is working on rebranding and redesigning of the product line. The management expects better performance in the paints business from FY24 onwards
  • Margins:
    • PVC prices have now become stable and the management does not see significant volatility in the gross margin in FY24E. The company will continue investing into brand building exercise in the next two year in order to increase the visibility of new products.
    • The EBITDA margin in Q4 is higher owing to improved product mix and benefit of lower raw material prices
  • Others:
    • The management has guided that the new products such as Tank, Faucet, sanitaryware, paint and valve will together generate revenue of | 1500 crore in next five years.

As on FY23, the company has total cash balance of | 682 crore. The company will utilise the cash for future growth opportunities

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

 

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

 

 

 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

 

 

 

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Hitesh Taunk, MBA (Finance), Sanjay Manyal, MBA (Finance) and Ashwi Bhansali, MBA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. Registered Office Address: ICICI Venture House, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 400 025. CIN: L67120MH1995PLC086241, Tel: (91 22) 6807 7100. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

 

Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. None of the research recommendations promise or guarantee any assured, minimum or risk-free return to the investors.

 

Name of the Compliance officer (Research Analyst): Mr. Anoop Goyal

Contact number: 022-40701000 E-mail Address: complianceofficer@icicisecurities.com

 

For any queries or grievances: Mr. Prabodh Avadhoot Email address: headservicequality@icicidirect.com Contact Number: 18601231122

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/ beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Read More