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Dr Reddys Laboratories Ltd>
  • CMP : 6,252.1 Chg : 33.35 (0.54%)
  • Target : 4,750.0 (15.85%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

29 Jul 2022

Muted Q1 ex-one-offs; focus on margins and launches

About The Stock

Dr Reddy’s (DRL) portfolio includes pharmaceutical generics, APIs, custom pharmaceutical services, biosimilar and complex formulations.

  • Revenue breakup: US (35%), India (20%), Russia and CIS (14%), Europe (8%), RoW (8%), PSAI (14%) and others (2%)
  • It has 13 formulation facilities, nine API manufacturing facilities, one biologics facility and several R&D centres across the globe
Q1FY23

Revenues propelled by brand divestment income (₹ 230 crore)

  • Sales were up 6% YoY to ₹ 5233 crore
  • Adjusted EBITDA (ex-divestment income) was at ₹ 711 crore, with Adjusted margins at 14% [note: adjustments for income from divestments of brands]

Adjusted PAT for quarter was at ₹ 607 crore [note: adjustments for income from divestments of brands and settlement gains of ₹564 crore

What should Investors do?

Dr Reddy’s share price grew 1.6x over past three years

  • Maintain BUY on back of 1) ramp up across geographies in coming quarters on back of new launches and easing of high Covid base, 2) value accretive launches schedule in global markets, and 3) margin improvement due to new launches, softening of input cost and operating leverage
Target Price Valuation

We value Dr Reddy’s at ₹ 4750 i.e. 24x FY24E EPS of ₹ 191 + NPV of ₹ 167.8 for gRevlimid.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • US pipeline: In near term, key launches in complex generics (guidance for 25 launches in FY23) is likely to weather persisting price erosion in US, along with additional impetus from gRevlimid in H2FY23. Structurally, 1) 40% of pipeline being injectable/sterile, 2) 25+ complex products and 3) select Biosimilars and Complex generics bodes well for US market
  • Emerging Markets & India: New launches to offset price erosion and loss in Covid opportunities. Domestically, ramp-up of acquired assets and faster integration to increase base business.
  • Easing of volatility in currency for Russia-CIS market and possible gains from inventory normalization in H2FY23
  • Target to backward integrate 70% molecules to benefit gross margins in medium term. Immediate focus on cost rationalisation, on SG&A front and simultaneous launches across geographies
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Dr Reddy’s, in healthcare we like Sun Pharma.

  • Higher contribution from specialty and strong domestic franchise is likely to change the product mix towards more remunerative businesses by FY23
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1070

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 15,448.2 17,517.0 19,047.5 21,545.2 8.7 22,723.0 24,793.4 7.3
EBITDA 3,151.6 2,466.0 3,869.9 3,767.7 8.8 4,614.1 5,244.6 18.0
EBITDA Margins (%) 20.4 14.1 20.3 17.5 - 20.3 21.2 -
Adjusted PAT 1,906.3 2,026.0 1,951.6 2,128.8 10.5 3,386.0 3,179.3 22.7
EPS (Adjusted) 114.6 121.7 117.3 127.9 - 203.4 191.0 -
PE (x) 40.8 34.6 36.0 31.1 - 20.2 21.5 -
RoE (%) 13.6 13.0 11.1 11.1 - 14.1 12.0 -
RoCE (%) 10.7 9.6 13.1 13.0 - 15.4 13.0 -
- - - - - - 19.1 18.1 -
Debt / Equity 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 - - - -
- - - - - - 0.1 0.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Muted quarter ex-one offs

  • Revenues grew 6% YoY to | 5233 crore, driven by 26% YoY growth in India to | 1334 crore. Russia & Other CIS markets grew 4% YoY to | 510 crore while Europe also grew 4% YoY to | 414 crore. US markets grew by 2% YoY to | 1781 crore while RoW markets de-grew 8% YoY to | 390 crore. PSAI segment posted de-growth of 6% YoY to | 709 crore. Revenues for Q1FY23 includes License fee and service income of | 90.2 crore from sale of brands to JB Chemicals and | 139.9 crore from sale of brands to Torrent Pharma. Gross margins declined 210 bps YoY to 63.5% and EBITDA margins improved 313 bps to 18%. Adjusted EBITDA margins for one-off divestment income was at 14.2%. Subsequently, EBITDA grew 28% YoY to | 941 crore. PAT for the quarter was up 224% YoY to | 1180 crore. [Note: Dr Reddy’s recognised amount receivable of | 563.8 crore as other income from settlement with lndivior lnc., lndivior UK Limited and Aquestive Therapeutics].

 

  • Dr Reddy’s Laboratories’ Q1 revenues were in-line with I-direct estimates, however highly skewed in different geographies. Margins for the quarter was a miss on estimates on account of higher commodity prices, adverse leverage on manufacturing overheads, price erosion and adverse forex related impact. Q1FY23 print was again marred by one offs in various directions but the actual narrative was on substantial weaker footing. Russia & CIS markets saw poor offtake due to channel inventory normalization post stocking up in Q4FY22 while US was muted due to price erosion in some key molecules. The management remains committed to working on cost rationalisation, especially on the SGN&A front and calibrating of R&D spend more towards Global Generics front & Biosimilars and lower towards proprietary products. Key growth drivers in the near term would be key launches across geographies besides continuing growth momentum in Global Generics especially in India and Russia.

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • North America: Growth was affected by additional competition in couple of molecules, price erosion in US base business while sequentially Vasopressin inventory filling in Q4FY22 led to high base, as volumes and prices have normalised in current quarter. Launched seven new products in Q1FY23 and Management guided for 25 launches in FY23, including volume limited launch of gRevlimid (in all strengths) in septmeber,2022.
  • Europe: During Q1, total of nine launches in various geographies. Gross margins were in-line with previous years.
  • India: Adjusted for brand divestment in current quarter and Covid sales in Q1FY22, growth was in double digits but on adjusting for acquisitions, base business grew in single digits in Q1FY23. Company launched 5 products.
  • Emerging Markets: Russian market (YoY 14% decline in constant currency terms) declined primarily due to channel inventory normalization post stocking up in Q4FY22 while RoW markets declined primarily on account of higher base in QlFY22 due to Covid product sales and price decline in current quarter. CIS markets grew driven by volume traction in base business, favourable price benefits in some products and launch of new products.
  • PSAI business: Management indicated that adjusted for Covid base in Q1FY22, there was some growth in current quarter. The offtake is likely to improve through FY23 due to addition of new products and new customers.
  • Gross margins: There was 150 bps adverse effect due to forex impact on cost. Management indicated that gross margins will improve on back of new launches and internal sourcing for brands like Cidmus to reduce cost.

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