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State Bank of India>
  • CMP : 830.1 Chg : 3.80 (0.46%)
  • Target : 725.0 (26.31%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

19 May 2023

Surging quarterly profits, bar set for higher return ratios

About The Stock

SBI is a public sector bank and also the largest bank in India with a balance sheet size of over ~ ₹ 55 lakh crore.

  • Strength in retail portfolios, best operating metrics in the PSU banking space
  • Large subsidiaries, strong outlook adding value to the bank
Q4FY23

SBI reported a stellar performance in spite of higher expenses.

  • GNPA, NNPA improved 36 bps, 10 bps QoQ respectively; slippage ratio at 0.41%
  • Though NII was up 29% YoY, other income grew 17% YoY, higher opex on employee provisions dented operating profit growth. NIMs improved QoQ by 10 bps
  • Lower provisions & healthy topline resulted in PAT growth of 83% YoY at ₹ 16695 crore
  • Gross advances up 16% YoY, deposits up 9.2% YoY; CASA dipped to 43.8% vs 44.5%
What should Investors do?

SBI has demonstrated its strength in the last few quarters both on core operating performance and asset quality. Management confidence on growth, maintenance of margins and return ratios reaching >1%  RoA in coming years too warrant a re-rating, which is long due and should see strong positive momentum. Plough-back of profits leading to improving RoE of ~16-17% further adds to valuation.

  •  We reiterate BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the bank at ~1.2x FY25E ABV and subsidiaries at ~₹ 163/share to arrive at a revised target price of ₹ 725 from ₹ 700 earlier.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The management provided credit growth guidance of ~12-16%, with NIMs to be maintained
  • Healthy recoveries trend to continue in the coming quarter (to the tune of
    ₹ 3000-3500 crore)
  • Management is comfortable on ECL provisions and adequate buffer to aid healthy earnings and, thus, RoA trajectory of >1% to continue
  • Continued traction in customer & business accretion via “Yono”. Unlocking of subsidiaries value to act as positive surprise
Alternate Stock

Besides SBI, in our coverage we also like IndusInd Bank.

  • Robust business growth, uptick in NIM, moderation in provision seen enabling the bank to generate RoA of ~1.9% in FY24-25E
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1450

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
NII 980.8 1,107.1 1,207.1 1,447.8 13.9 1,787.9 1,983.8 17.1
PPP 681.4 715.5 752.9 837.1 7.1 1,013.7 1,235.8 21.5
PAT 144.9 204.1 316.8 502.3 51.3 613.8 711.7 19.0
ABV (|) 203.2 243.3 282.6 343.2 - 411.0 484.9 -
P/E 35.3 25.1 16.2 10.2 - 8.3 7.2 -
P/ABV 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.7 - 1.4 1.2 -
RoA 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 - 1.1 1.1 -
RoE 6.4 8.4 11.9 16.5 - 17.2 16.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY (%) Q3FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 40,393 38,501 31,197 29.5 38,069 6.1 Led by strong credit growth and NIMs expansion
NIM (%) 3.6 2.7 3.2 45 bps 3.5 10 bps  
Other Income 13,961 10,300 11,880 17.5 11,468 21.7 Aided by healthy fee income growth
               
Net Total Income 54,354 48,801 43,077 26.2 49,536 9.7  
Operating expense 29,733 24,013 23,361 27.3 24,317 22.3 Higher opex partly due to wage arrear provisions
PPP 24,621 24,787 19,716 24.9 25,219 -2.4  
Provision 3,315 4,500 7,237 -54.2 5,760 -42.4 Credit cost improved by 5bps QoQ to 0.16%
PBT 21,306 20,287 12,479 70.7 19,459 9.5  
Tax Outgo 4,611 5,173 3,366 37.0 5,253 -12.2  
PAT 16,695 15,114 9,113 83.2 14,206 17.5 Stellar earnings growth led by strong top line and lower credit cost
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 90,928 1,00,847 1,12,023 -18.8 98,347 -7.5 Improvement in GNPA by 36 bps QoQ
NNPA 21,467 25,084 27,966 -23.2 23,484 -8.6  
Advances 3199269 3159097 2733967 17.0 3058177 4.6 Domestic growth was driven by retail segment
Deposits 4423778 4440481 4051534 9.2 4213557 5.0 CASA deposits grew ~5% YoY
GNPA % 2.8 3.1 4.0 -119 bps 3.1 -36 bps  
NNPA % 0.7 0.8 1.0 -35 bps 0.8 -10 bps  

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Management guidance for FY24 – Credit growth to be 12-14% YoY
  • Management said there is still some headroom to increase MCLR and hence NIM will not dip significantly
  • During FY23 cost of deposits went up ~16 bps (YoY) of which ~9 bps increased in Q4FY23
  • Growth driver of fee income will be loan processing, income from cross selling of products & forex income
  • Opex was higher on account of increased spends on tech, IT, GST related expenses etc. CI increased mainly due to wage revision expenses during the quarter (₹ 2500 crore from November 2022 to March 2023)
  • Xpress credit - >83% customers are employed with armed forces and / or government employees, >12% are with reputed corporates
  • Restructuring book (1+2) stood at ₹24302 crore vs 26035 crore in Q3FY23 and ₹30960 crore in Q4FY22.
  • NBFC sector exposure was ₹3.57 lakh crore (well rated corporate groups) vs ₹2.71 lakh crore
  • Bank has ₹4 lakh crore excess SLR to support credit growth and have ₹1.7 lakh crore projects in pipeline
  • Bank is well prepared for ECL norms and does not see major impact on P&L

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                             

 

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