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SRF Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,621.1 Chg : -15.20 (-0.58%)
  • Target : 3,000.0 (16.73%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

12 May 2023

Chemicals business continues to drive numbers, optimism…

About The Stock

Incorporated in 1970, SRF started with nylon cord tyre and, thereafter, diversified into refrigerant gases, speciality chemicals and packaging film among others.

  • Chemicals (specialty + fluorochemicals) form 50% of overall revenues followed by packaging film (35%), technical textile (13%) and others (2%)
  • The company exports to more than 90+ countries. Revenue from the international market constitutes 57% of overall revenues while the rest is from the domestic market segment
Q4FY23 Results

Reported a decent performance in Q4FY23 largely led by specialty chemicals segment.

  • Reported revenue growth was 6.1% YoY to ₹ 3,719.3 crore, led by chemicals (up 34% YoY) but pulled down by technical textile (down 13% YoY), packaging film (down 17% YoY) and other segment (down 1% YoY)
  • Gross margins declined 311 bps YoY to 50% while EBITDA margin declined 205 bps YoY to 24.7%. Absolute EBITDA was down 2% YoY to ₹ 931.6 crore
  • PAT declined 7% YoY to ₹ 562.5 crore
What should Investors do?

The stock appreciated at 53% CAGR in last three years.

  • We retain BUY rating on the back of 1) sustained efforts to ride on the increasing opportunities for specialty + fluorochemicals across key industries 2) foray into Fluoropolymer PTFE, 3) optical visibility capex drive with a heavy tilt towards specialty chemicals
Target Price and Valuation

We value SRF on SOTP basis to arrive at a target price of ₹ 3000/share (earlier ₹ 2550/share).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Continuous capex towards speciality chemical on the back of higher consumption of fluoro compounds across agrochemical and pharma is likely to support strong business performance in years to come
  • Venturing into PTFE through backward integration of R22. Commencement of production is expected to begin in H1FY24
  • The management guidance of 20%+ growth in specialty chemical segment and recovery in technical textile segment
New Stock Ideas

Apart from SRF, in our chemical coverage, we also like Tata Chemical.

  • Tata Chemical’s future revenue growth would be driven by increasing soda ash margins
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1130

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 year CAGR (FY18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 year CAGR (FY23-25E)
Net Revenue 7,209.4 8,400.0 12,433.7 14,870.3 21.6 16,896.9 19,359.1 9.2
EBITDA 1,454.9 2,144.9 3,175.9 3,529.2 29.9 3,882.0 4,756.5 10.5
EBITDA Margins (%) 20.2 25.5 25.5 23.7 - 23.0 24.6 -
Adj.PAT 1,019.1 1,197.9 1,888.9 2,162.3 36.2 2,360.9 2,944.4 10.8
Adj. EPS (₹) 34.3 40.3 63.5 72.7 - 79.4 99.0 -
EV/EBITDA 46.7 31.6 21.3 19.3 - 17.8 14.5 -
P/E 63.7 54.2 34.4 30.0 - 27.5 22.0 -
ROE (%) 20.7 17.5 22.1 20.9 - 19.4 20.1 -
ROCE (%) 16.1 18.7 23.8 21.9 - 20.6 22.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Q4FY23 Results: Specialty chemical continues growth momentum

  • SRF - ESG Disclosure Score*

     

     

    Source: Blomberg, ICICI Direct Research, *Score ranges from 0 - 100 with a higher score indicating higher ESG disclosures

     

     

    Specialty chemical business drive overall performance: Revenues were up 6.1% YoY to | 3719.3 crore, led by chemical segment, which was up 34% YoY to | 2101.7 crore. The growth from the chemical segment was driven by new products witnessing significant traction and strong customer engagement on flagship and downstream products. Apart from this, technical textile segment de-grew 13% YoY to | 430.7 crore while packaging film segment de-grew 17% YoY to | 1153.1 crore
  • Margins under pressure across all segments except specialty chemicals: OPM for the quarter declined 205 bps YoY to 24.7%. EBIT from specialty chemical segment increased 310 bps to 35% while the same from technical textile, packaging film and other segments was at 11% (-717 bps YoY), 4%             (-1629 bps YoY) & 12% (+764 bps YoY), respectively

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Speciality Chemical Business
    • The company will make strong investments in the specialty chemical industry, going forward
    • The recently commissioned PIP plant is anticipated to ramp up
    • The primary growth driver in the upcoming years will be the launch of seven to eight agrochemical active intermediates
    • In the pharma business, it aims to enter CDMO business through organic or inorganic route
  • Fluorochemical Business
    • The company will commission the PTFE capacity in the coming quarter. The PX-1/PX-2 capacity is developing according to schedule. Due to travel restrictions imposed by China, the commissioning of PTFE was delayed
    • Regarding refrigerants, it will concentrate on the domestic market in Q1 and US markets in the following two quarters. Weak Q1 performance is anticipated. It expects to build exports in the Middle East from Q2
    • The management expects the US to remain a net importer of HFC on the back of high cost of HFC purchased locally and US restriction on Chinese gases. The new R32 plant is expected to ramp up the capacity utilisation up to 70% over the next year 12 months and up to 100% by the end of the second year

 

  • Packaging Films Business
    • Segment faced several headwinds that impacted performance during the financial year including significant supply addition in BOPET, global demand slowdown, rising energy costs in Europe, and sharp fall in commodity prices. The management expects the packaging business to improve from here on
    • The capacity in Hungary has suffered due to a rise in energy costs. The utilisation for Hungary plant was at ~69% for FY23. For Q4FY23, utilisation of Hungary plant was at 65%
    • The company completed debottlenecking at the South Africa plant by increasing the capacity from 15%. It increases the capacity by ~3500 tonnes per month
    • Aluminium foil plant is progressing well and is expected to get commissioned in the end of Q2FY24. With this, SRF will become a solution provider of three major segments BOPP, BOPET and aluminium foil

 

 

 

 

 

  • Technical Textiles Business
    • Q4FY23 was subdued to weak demand for Nylon Tyre Cord Fabric but belting fabric reported decent numbers
    • The management is witnessing a revival in demand on NTCF and belting fabric in FY24
    • Polyester industrial yarn is expected to be driven by geo textile and seatbelts

 

Other Points

  • Overall capex guided by the management for FY24 was | 2500 crore

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third Floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

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Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

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