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Sonata Software Ltd>
  • CMP : 636.7 Chg : -23.50 (-3.56%)
  • Target : 520.0 (2.97%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

20 Oct 2022

IT services numbers weak…

About The Stock

Sonata Software (Sonata) offers IT services (30%) and product licensing & deployment (70%).

  • The company provides IT services to travel, retail, agri & commodities and manufacturing and software vendors
  • Net debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of >30%)
Q2FY23 Results:

Sonata reported weak Q2FY23 numbers.

  • IT services dollar revenues increased 1.8% QoQ & 3.9% in CC terms
  • EBITDA margins in IT services declined 70 bps QoQ
  • The company closed two large deals in Q2
What should Investors do?

Sonata’s share price has grown by ~4.4x over the past five years (from ~₹ 116 in October 2017 to ~₹ 505 levels in October 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Sonata at ₹ 520 i.e. 16x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strong digital capabilities helping it in accelerated digital revenue growth enhancing digital revenue mix. i.e. 73% of mix now vs. 68% a year ago
  • Upgrades in Microsoft Dynamics and tapping Fortune 1000 clients in the medium to large category bode well for revenue growth
  • Robust hiring trend and inorganic growth prompt us to build IT service dollar revenue growth of over 13.3% CAGR over FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Sonata, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,670

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 3,743.3 4,228.1 5,553.4 18.6 6,807.4 7,488.1 8,087.1 13.3
EBITDA 372.8 379.4 463.8 19.3 521.4 576.1 637.5 11.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.0 9.0 8.4 - 7.7 7.7 7.9 -
PAT 276.9 244.0 376.5 19.1 371.0 416.9 453.3 6.4
EPS (|) 26.7 23.5 27.2 - 26.8 30.1 32.7 -
P/E (x) 18.9 21.5 18.6 - 18.9 16.8 15.4 -
RoNW (%) 41.4 26.9 34.2 - 29.7 29.5 28.4 -
RoCE (%) 44.7 33.5 39.8 - 35.3 35.5 35.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • IT service segment dollar revenues increased 1.8% QoQ to US$57.8 million, (3.9% in CC terms) while rupee revenue came in at | 460.4 crore, up 5.4% QoQ. Product business revenues declined 22.6% QoQ to | 1,040.2 crore. Consolidated revenues declined 15.9% QoQ to | 1,495.9 crore
  • IT service EBITDA margin (including other income) declined ~70 bps QoQ to 25.9% while that of product business increased ~120 bps to 4.5%. Consolidated EBITDA margins increased ~210 bps to 11.1%. The company indicated that persistent supply side headwinds & resumption of travel expenses impacted IT services margins
  • The revenue for US region (56% of the mix) remained flat QoQ while Europe region reported a sharp decline of 7.9% QoQ. The company indicated that Europe region revenue was impacted due to cross currency impact. RoW region reported growth of 15.6% QoQ. Vertical wise, the company indicated that retail & travel were impacted due to cross currency impact reporting a decline of 1.1% & 9.4% QoQ. Also, commodity business declined 2.8% QoQ while growth was driven by distribution & manufacturing and ISV verticals, which grew 0.8% & 3% QoQ
  • The revenue from top clients of the company continued to moderate with the top five, top 10, top 20 client’s revenues declining 3.9%, 4.8%, 8.1% QoQ, respectively
  • Digital revenues contribution remained at 73% & offshore mix increased to 75%, up 100 bps QoQ. The company indicated that it expects the offshore mix to remains steady at current levels
  • The company’s new CEO Sameer Dhar indicated that the company plans to double IT services revenue in the next four years (this implies growth at a CAGR of 18.9%). It also indicated that it may not necessarily include inorganic opportunities as the company is confident of current headcount as well deal pipeline to bring in that growth. However, Sonata did not rule out inorganic opportunity completely as it mentioned that it may still go for it, if it is a strategic fit for it. The company also clarified that it will not go for inorganic opportunities for scale benefit
  • The company reported that it added 12 new clients during the quarter. Sonata also indicated that it closed two large multi-year annuity deals, out of which one is with a Sweden based company with annual turnover of US$95 bn. The deal is of four years and the scope of work includes modernising their IT systems, bringing in sales efficiency, distribution management. It also mentioned that the deal is margin accretive as the margins in the deal are above company margins
  • The company indicated that demand remains strong despite macroeconomic uncertainties. It mentioned that its pipeline remains robust and it is witnessing traction in cloud, data & automation. The company indicated that no projects are cancelled but it witnessing delayed decision making in the few of new projects
  • With the strong pipeline in place the company indicated that it has hired 800 employees in the last one year including ~300 freshers. The company indicated that it will continue to invest in its fresher’s program and plans to hire 550 freshers in FY23 to address the supply side headwinds. However, the company also indicated that the supply side challenges in certain niche technical skills will persist and it will take a few quarters for it to normalise. Sonata further mentioned that attrition declined 200 bps during the quarter and expects the same to moderate, going forward
  • The company, during the quarter, allotted bonus shares in the ratio of 1:3, i.e. one bonus shares for every three shares held by shareholders on the record date
  • Sonata declared an interim dividend of | 7/share
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue         1,496           963          55.3        1,779           (15.9) IT services reported 3.9% QoQ CC growth while rupee revenues grew by 5.4% QoQ while Products business ( lumpy in nature) reported decline of 22.6% QoQ , resulting in 15.9% QoQ overall revenue decline
Employee expenses           222           175          27.0           214              3.7  
Purchase of stock-in trade & other        1,019           596          71.1        1,321           (22.9)  
Gross Margin           255           193          32.3           244              4.5  
Gross margin (%)          17.0          20.0  -297 bps           13.7  332 bps   
Other expenses           100             70          44.0           102             (2.0)  
             
EBITDA           155           123          25.7           142              9.2  
EBITDA Margin (%)          10.3          12.8  -244 bps             8.0  237 bps  EBITDA margins for IT services declined ~70bps QoQ while that of lumpy product business improved 125bps QoQ
Depreciation & amortisation             14             12          16.4             13              5.0  
EBIT           141           111          26.6           129              9.6  
EBIT Margin (%)            9.4          11.6  -214 bps             7.2  219 bps   
 Other income (less interest)                7               9        (16.8)             14           (49.4)  
PBT           148           120          23.4           143              3.6  
Tax paid             36             29          22.9             35              0.7  
PAT           113             91          23.6           108              4.6  

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Sujay Chavan, MMS Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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