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Sansera Engineering Ltd>
  • CMP : 996.7 Chg : -5.20 (-0.52%)
  • Target : 860.0 (15.44%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

18 Nov 2022

Healthy performance, fundamental levers for growth ...

About The Stock

Sansera Engineering Ltd. (SAN), est. in 1981, is a Bengaluru based engineering led integrated manufacturer of critical precision forged components (engine, non-engine oriented) for end application in predominantly auto domain.

  • FY22 Geography mix: India 63%; Europe: 24%; USA: 9%; Others: 4%
  • FY22 End-User mix: Auto ~83%; Non-Auto ~11%; Auto-Tech & xEVs ~6%
Q2FY23

SAN reported a healthy performance in Q2FY23

  • Consolidated sales rose 19% QoQ to ₹ 634 crores
  • EBITDA was at ₹106.2 crores with margins down 20 bps QoQ to 16.8%.
    • Consolidated PAT was up 35% sequentially to ₹46 crores
  • For the quarter domestic operations outperformed the mellow export show
What should Investors do?

SAN price has corrected ~10% since listing from ~₹818 levels in September 2021, under-performing the wider Nifty Auto index.

  • We maintain BUY rating amidst robust order book, strong export order wins, precision engineering capabilities & tendency to outrun industry growth.
Target Price and Valuation

We value SAN at ₹ 860 i.e. 22x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹38.8, building in 15%/25% sales/earnings CAGR respectively over FY22-24E

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With robust order-book in domestic as well as from global space amounting to peak annual revenues of ~₹1,420 crores amid marquee OEMs as its key clients (including Boeing), we expect sales to grow at 15% over FY22-24
  • With cooling of commodity prices, improved product mix & operating leverage at play, we see margins stabilizing at ~18.2% mark by FY24E.
  • Strong focus on de-risking the ICE portfolio with 5 year sales target placed at 25% from non-auto & 15% from Auto-Tech Agnostic & xEVs.
  • Healthy B/S, with debt at ~₹ 670 crores (H1FY23) with debt: equity at ~0.6x & consistent positive cash flow from operations (>₹200 crore per annum), RoCE/RoE are expected at ~15.1/14.6% by FY24E.
Alternate Stock Ideas

In our auto universe, we also like Mahindra & Mahindra.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR (FY19-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 1,624.4 1,457.2 1,549.3 1,989.0 6.9 2,283.6 2,628.3 15.0
EBITDA 289.1 224.7 272.1 333.6 4.8 387.1 477.0 19.6
EBITDA Margins (%) 17.8 15.4 17.6 16.8 - 17.0 18.2 -
Net Profit 96.2 80.3 108.0 130.4 10.6 149.9 202.5 24.6
EPS (|) 18.4 15.4 20.7 25.0 - 28.7 38.8 -
P/E 40.4 48.4 36.0 29.8 - 25.9 19.2 -
RoNW (%) 15.2 10.5 12.3 12.7 - 13.0 15.1 -
RoCE (%) 14.3 8.2 10.5 11.3 - 12.6 14.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q2FY23 Results

  • Total operating income for the quarter came in at | 634 crore, up 19% QoQ.
  • Reported EBITDA for Q2FY23 stood at | 106.2 crore up 18% QoQ with corresponding EBITDA margins at 16.8%, down 20 bps QoQ.
  • Consequently, PAT came in at ₹46 crores up 35% QoQ.
  • Management informed about muted margin performance due to subdued demand in exports and commodity cost for H1’23 being booked in Q2FY23.

 

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Company during the quarter received and long term (6 year) order from American company in non-auto space with peak revenue potential of ₹25 crore. While it also received an order from a global auto OEM with peak annual revenues of ₹130 crore (total order value pegged at ~₹700 crore over 6 years)
  • SAN witnessed highest ever quarterly revenue despite exports being subdued mainly riding on strong domestic demand amidst festive cheers.
  • SAN during Q2FY23 started commercial deliveries of connecting rods to Tata Motors & Eicher Motors and is in discussion for more components.
  • Company expects outperformance in the Aerospace & Defence business and expects these segments to grow by 35-40% in FY23E. Further management expect aerospace business to achieve ~₹200 crore topline by FY26E backed by new facility in Bengaluru ready for mass production by April 24.
  • Dip in margin was due to muted exports, which management expects to pick-up in Q4FY23E. Overall management expects revenue from international business to remain at 35-38% to topline.
  • Management informed about ~₹ 60 lakh of MTM loss due to forex movement.
  • SEL guided about Q3FY23 to be muted in terms of operating leverage as plants will go for annual maintenance and margin to be ~17% mark. Further during Q4FY23 operating leverage is expected to be higher than Q2FY23 amidst uptick in domestic as well as export markets.
  • Sales in Sweden is expected to be subdued in FY23E due to change in procurement strategy at one of its major OEM client. Also management expects margins to be in double digit range in FY24E from current 7%.
  • Company has ~12 customers for xEV components with ~18% of order-book comprising of xEV components and sales of same pegged at ~3% in Q2’23.
  • Decline in gross margin to extend of 1.3-1.4% was due to base effect i.e. pass on of commodity cost to customers & ~0.5% due to decreased exports.
  • Order-book as of Q2FY23 stood at ₹~1,420 crores of peak revenues vs ~₹1,100 crores of peak revenues as of Q1FY23.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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