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  • CMP : 2,933.1 Chg : -0.90 (-0.03%)
  • Buying Range : 2465-2486
  • Target : 2,710.0 (9.47%)
  • Stoploss : 0.0
  • Target Period : 3 Month

27 May 2023

Breakout above last three months base formation....

RelianceIndustries

TECHNICAL_INFOGRAPHIC_1
Technical Outlook
The share price of Reliance Industries is seen resolving above last three months base formation (₹2463-2180) signalling resumption of up move and offers fresh entry opportunity 

Stock has witnessed a steady rebound in the last two months from the key support area of ₹ 2200 being the previous major low of March 2022 and the entire up move is well channelled signalling sustained demand at elevated levels

In the smaller time frame the stock in the last 11 sessions has witnessed a shallow retracement of just 50% of its preceding 14 sessions up move and is currently witnessing buying demand after base above the 52 weeks EMA highlighting strength and positive price structure
 
We expect the stock to maintain positive bias and head towards ₹ 2710 levels in the coming months being the 80% retracement of the entire decline of Apr22-Mar23 (₹ 2856-2180)

Fundamental Outlook

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is one of India’s largest conglomerate with a presence in oil refining & marketing, oil & gas exploration, petrochemicals, organised retail, media and digital services (Jio) making it a well diversified business entity. On a consolidated basis, at the EBITDA level in FY23, O2C and oil & gas contributed 50% while retail, digital and others contributed 12%, 34% and 4%, respectively

On the traditional businesses front, in FY23 O2C segment’s EBITDA grew 18% YoY to ₹62075 crore, profitability is expected to remain steady in near term. We expect GRMs to be subdued in the current quarter, but likely to increase in H2FY24 due to the anticipated rise in demand. Going forward, the company plans to invest more into petrochemicals business. Oil and Gas EBITDA grew 1.5x YoY to ₹13589 crore due to higher gas realisation. Going ahead, ramp up in gas production will drive growth in oil & gas segment.

FY23 was another landmark year for Reliance Retail as it grew 30% YoY to ₹ 2.6 lakh crore on a significantly large base. Retail coverage area now has crossed 65 million sq ft (up 57% YoY), which is more than 4.5x the size of the second largest retailer. Despite record number of store additions and foray into newer segments (consumer brands) the company managed to improve its RoCE profile by 250 bps YoY to 14.0% in FY23. Reliance Retail’s widespread physical store network would further enhance its omni-channel capabilities (~18% of revenues) and position it as a frontrunner to garner consistent business growth by capturing a larger pie of the Indian retail sector opportunity.

We believe that superior spectrum portfolio along with superior digital ecosystem offering lends Jio a competitive advantage even in 5G (as seen in 4G foray). With no tariff hike in sight, 5G users’ data usage trend will drive the ARPU in the near and medium term (~8.5% ARPU CAGR over FY23-25). It is aggressively expanding its broadband coverage (targeting 100 mn customer in two to three years vs. current base of ~9 mn) both through new plans and fixed wireless access, thereby aiming higher wallet share ahead. Jio also continues to build on enterprise use case both for large enterprises and small and medium businesses which will be a long-term growth catalyst.
 
We expect consolidated revenue to grow at 3% CAGR over FY23-25 to ₹1034222 crore, EBITDA to grow at ~10% CAGR over FY23-25 to ₹171724 crore and PAT to grow at 12% CAGR to ₹83608 crore, with a ROCE of 9.2% in FY25E. Long term prospects and dominant standing of Reliance Industries in each of its product & service portfolio provide comfort for long term value creation. RIL’s consumer business will be the growth driver, going ahead. The company has a strong balance sheet while its traditional business will continue to generate steady cash flows.

Follow up summary of Gladiator Stocks

Other product open recommendations

Date Product Scrip Name Market Strategy RP Target Stoploss Time Frame
5/16/2023 12:00:00 AM Momentum Pick PNC Infra Cash Buy 318.5 348 303 14 Days
5/18/2023 12:00:00 AM Momentum Pick IEX Cash Buy 162 175 155 14 Days
5/22/2023 12:00:00 AM Momentum Pick ACC Cash Buy 1810 1970 1740 30 Days
5/25/2023 12:00:00 AM Momentum Pick Tejas Network Cash Buy 666 712 628 14 Days
5/26/2023 12:00:00 AM Momentum Pick Coforge Cash Buy 4365 4630 4173 14 Days
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Product Guidelines......

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Trading portfolio allocation

  • It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products
  • Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
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For example: The ‘Momentum Picks’ product carries 2 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation

INFOGRAPHIC

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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