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Polycab India Ltd>
  • CMP : 5,593.7 Chg : -39.45 (-0.70%)
  • Target : 2,850.0 (17.38%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

12 May 2022

High raw material cost drags margin…

About The Stock

Polycab is the largest manufacturer of wire & cable in India. The company also entered the fast moving electrical goods (FMEG) space in 2014 and has recorded strong segment revenue CAGR of 43% in the last five years.

  • Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 23%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. The company has ~4100 dealers, serving.65 lakh retail outlets
  • Robust b/s with RoE, RoCE of 19%, 26%, respectively, (three-year average)
Q4FY22 Results

Strong revenue growth; margin pressure continued.

  • Strong revenue growth of 35% YoY to ₹ 3970 crore led by ~40% growth in the wire & cable segment. FMEG grew albeit a slow pace of 9% YoY
  • EBITDA margin declined ~173 bps YoY to 12% due to higher raw material prices. Sequentially, margin improved 127 bps
  • PAT increased ~15% ₹ 325 crore; tracking strong topline growth
What should Investors do?

Polycab’s share price has grown by ~3.6x over the past two years (from ~₹ 680 in May 2020 to ~₹ 2439 levels in May 2021).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price & Valuation

We revise our target price to ₹ 2850/share valuing the stock at 35x P/E on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Set a target to achieve ₹ 20,000 crore revenues by FY26 (13% CAGR)
  • Beneficiary of government’s plans to invest ~ ₹ 111 lakh crore in FY20-25 under its National Infrastructure Pipeline
  • Total ~1.7 crore new houses under PMAY, urbanisation and rising aspiration level will give a significant boost to demand for home appliances
  • Model revenue, earnings CAGR of ~12%, ~15%, respectively, in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Supreme Ind under our coverage

  • Supreme is market leader in plastic piping segment with ~14% market share. Robust b/s with average RoE, RoCE of 24%, 27%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2320

Key Financial Summary

(Rs# Crore) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net sales 7,956.0 8,830.0 8,792.2 12,203.8 0.2 13,594.2 15,427.2 0.1
EBITDA 923.2 1,135.0 1,111.1 1,265.2 0.2 1,427.4 1,805.0 0.2
EBITDA Margin(%) 11.6 12.9 12.6 10.4 - 10.5 11.7 -
Net Profit 500.5 765.6 885.9 917.3 0.3 940.5 1,207.4 0.1
EPS (|) 35.4 51.4 59.3 61.4 - 62.9 80.8 -
P/E(x) 68.5 47.2 41.0 39.6 - 38.6 30.1 -
RoE (%) 17.6 20.0 17.9 15.6 - 15.7 17.5 -
RoCE (%) 28.3 26.4 20.6 20.2 - 20.7 23.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Strong revenue growth led by wire & cable business

  • Polycab reported strong revenue growth of 35% YoY to | 3970 crore led by wire & cable business. The wire & cable business (88% of overall revenue) revenue increased 40% YoY to | 3540 crore, supported by ~10% YoY volume growth. The company witnessed strong demand for housing wires in Q4 led by a revival in the real estate industry and increased renovation works. However, institutional sales were impacted due to significant volatility in aluminium prices. On the FMEG front (10% of overall revenue), revenue grew albeit a slow pace of 9% YoY to ~| 380 crore supported by price hikes. Supply issues (of switches), realignment exercises to improve sales force efficacy and achieve distribution synergies led to slower segment revenue growth. The EPC business (~2% of overall revenue) grew 8% YoY to | 104 crore
  • EBITDA margin declined 173 bps YoY to 12% due to higher raw material costs. EBIT margin of wire & cable came in at 11.6% in Q4 (down 150 bps YoY) while FMEG EBIT margin was weak at 2.8% (vs. 7% in Q4FY21) due to delay in price hikes, low operating leverage (amid lower volume growth)
  • PAT increased ~15% YoY | 325 crore tracking higher sales growth in Q4

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Demand Outlook:

  • The company remained a market leader in the organised wire & cable segment (with value share of 24% in FY22 vs. 22% in FY21)
  • The wire & cable and FMCG segment of the company is likely to see industry leading growth in FY23E supported by increased government/private capex and dealer expansion (target 300 high potential cities under project ‘Shikhar’). The company maintained its long term revenue growth guidance of 13% in FY22-26E (| 20,000 crore revenues by FY26). Polycab has launched new sub brand “Etira” under the economy price segment, which will be target to government project
  • The Company is working on four initiatives to drive FMEG segment revenue growth 1) aggressive market reach expansion, 2) building the right product portfolio across price spectrums, 3) improved brand architecture to drive premiumisation and 4) augmented influencer management programme
  • Fan, lighting, switches contribute ~33%, 15%, 15% in FMEG revenues, respectively. The company plans to start in-house manufacturing of switches, going forward

 

Margins:

  • The company is aiming at wire & cable segment EBIT margin in the range of 11-13% in FY22-24E (vs 9.8% in FY22E). On the FMEG front, it aims to achieve 12% annualised EBITDA margin by FY26 (vs. 1.6% in FY22)
  • The premium product contribution in the FMEG segment increased from 7% in FY21 to 16% in FY22. Despite higher contribution of premium products the company’s EBIT margin remain under pressure due to higher A&P, staff cost and input cost pressures

Other:

  • Authorised dealers & distributors increased from 4100 in FY21 to 4600 in FY22. The retail touch points increased by 24% YoY to 205000
  • The company is targeting a capex of | 300-350 crore to increase the capacity in the wire & cable segment and setting up new switch manufacturing plant
Variance Analysis
  Q4FY22 Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 3970.0 2942.7 34.9 3372.0 17.7   Revenue growth led by wire & cable segment
Other Income 16.8 23.1 -27.3 21.6 -22    
               
Raw Material Exp 3089.2 2185.6 41.3 2609.5 18.4   Delayed in price hikes in thre wire segments led to decline in gross margin by 354 bps YoY
Employee cost 105.0 97.6 7.6 102.5 2.4    
Adevertisement Exp 16.6 14.4 15.3 43.6 -61.8    
Freight and forwarding Exp 79.1 70.2 12.6 85.9 -7.9    
 Other Expenditure  203.7 170.8 19.3 168.8 20.7    
Total Expenditure 3493.6 2538.6 37.6 3010.3 16.1    
EBITDA 476.3 404.1 17.9 361.7 31.7    
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.0 13.7 -173 bps 10.7 127 bps   Savings in other costs partially offset higher raw material costs, restricting overall fall in EBITDA margin to 173 bps
Depreciation 50.3 46.1 9.1 51.1 -1.7    
Interest 12.5 13.2 -5.2 7.8 60.1    
PBT 430.4 368.0 17.0 324.4 32.7    
Total Tax 104.7 97.6 7.3 76.3 37.2    
 (Profit)/loss from discon. Op               -           (12.1)  NM       (67.8)  NM     
PAT 325.3 283.3 14.9 316.2 2.9   PAT growth supported by higher topline growth
               
Key Metrics*              
Wires & Cables 3,540.0 2,531.8 39.8 2,998.8 18.0   Revenue growth supported by ~10% volume growth. Wires grew faster than cables. Housing wires posted strong growth led by continued momentum in real estate and renovation activities 
FMEG 379.2 346.8 9.3 340.4 11.4   Decline in the revenue of switches (15% of segment revenue) and re-structuring excerise for distribution synergies led to slower growth in the segment
Others 104.4 96.0 8.9 98.9 5.6   Pick up in infra activities helped drive segment revenue
 *Including inter segment revenue               

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