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Persistent Systems Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,415.0 Chg : -15.35 (-0.45%)
  • Target : 5,075.0 (17.72%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

30 Apr 2022

Acquisition led growth continues in H2FY23

About The Stock

Persistent System (Persistent) offers cloud, data, product & design led services to BFSI, Healthcare & Hi Tech verticals

  • Persistent had a strong year with revenue growth of 35.2% in dollar terms, out of which organic growth was 32.8%
  • Net debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of 20%)
Q4FY22

Persistent reported robust Q4FY22 results.

  • Dollar revenues increased 9.1% QoQ, organic growth was 6.8% QoQ
  • EBIT margins increased 8 bps QoQ to 14.0%
  • Deal TCV was at US$361 mn, up 8% QoQ
What should Investors do?

Persistent’s share price has grown by ~7.9x over the past five years (from ~₹ 547 in April 2017 to ~₹ 4,311 levels in April 2022).

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value Persistent at ₹ 5,075 i.e. 36x P/E on FY24E

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company is looking to reach US$1 bn annual revenue in six to eight quarters from now and looking at EBITDA margin expansion of 16-17%, while a further 100-150 bps margin improvement is expected
  • It has acquired five companies in FY22 building capabilities in payments, cloud, etc. The company is not shying away from acquisitions in coming years as well
  • Strong deal win momentum will help improve its revenue growth. We expect dollar revenue to grow at 23.5% CAGR in FY22-24E along with EBIT margin expansion of ~80 bps to 14.7% in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Persistent, in our IT coverage we also like LTI.

  • Industry leading growth and healthy margins prompt us to be positive on the stock
  • HOLD with target price of ₹ 6,000

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 3,365.9 3,565.8 4,187.9 5,710.7 14.7 7,291.8 8,750.1 23.8
EBITDA 580.5 493.0 683.0 958.2 16.1 1,285.7 1,569.1 28.0
EBITDA Margins (%) 17.2 13.8 16.3 16.8 - 17.6 17.9 -
Net Profit 351.7 340.3 450.7 690.4 18.0 882.3 1,071.4 24.6
EPS (|) 44.0 44.4 59.0 90.3 - 115.5 140.2 -
P/E (x) 98.1 97.1 73.1 47.7 - 37.3 30.8 -
RoCE (%) 20.5 18.5 21.6 23.1 - 26.3 28.0 -
RoE (%) 15.0 14.3 16.1 20.5 - 22.7 23.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Revenue grew 9.1% to US$217.3 million (mn), out of which organic growth was 6.8% QoQ while the rest has come through the inorganic route. In rupee terms, revenue grew 9.8% QoQ to | 1,637.9 crore
  • This is the fourth consecutive quarter of ~9% QoQ growth. In terms of geographies, growth was aided by North America market (78.6% mix), which reported 8.3% QoQ while India market (11% mix) reported 10.1% QoQ growth
  • In terms of verticals, growth was aided by BFSI (32% mix), which grew 8.7% QoQ while technology (47% mix) grew 8.7% QoQ
  • However, 9.8% QoQ increase in employee cost restricted EBITDA, EBIT margin expansion, which expanded ~34 bps and 8 bps QoQ to 17.2%, 14.0%, respectively. The company indicated margins were impacted by higher CSR and one-time acquisition cost (-30 bps), and were mitigated from forex (+30bps). The company called out some headwinds in FY23 for the margin would be i) inflation led higher wage hikes, ii) amortisation impact due to acquisitions, which could be mitigated by i) robust revenue growth ii) elevated fresher intake. The company indicated that they would like to maintain 14% EBIT margin guidance
  • IP led revenues impacted by change in structure of the key clients from outcome based payments to fixed fee as some client’s products witnessed a muted response, which was impacting IP led revenues. Also, Persistent witnessed lower than company margin on these products
  • The management continues to maintain that it is aspiring to reach US$1 billion (bn) annual organic revenue in six to eight quarters from now. The company mentioned they would take a position on acquisitions at least in H1FY23 and focus on integration of the recent acquisitions. Persistent also indicated they will not shy away from further acquisitions from H2FY23 onwards as growth remains the primary focus area and margin is secondary
  • The management expects the growth momentum in the services business to continue while IP led business, which has witnessed de-growth in the last few quarters, is expected to grow in the range of 10-15%
  • The company reported a 30 bps dip in LTM attritions in the quarter to 26.6% as salary hikes, employee upscaling programme and career progression programmes may have helped attrition to see a downward trend. The company expects attrition to stabilise in H2FY23
  • The company has hired a few senior members in the team. Mr Jogesh has been appointed as chief people officer, Mr Samir Bendre as chief of operations, Mr Rajiv and Mr Rahul as key leaders in the cloud practice wherein Mr Rajiv will lead Microsoft. Mr Berlin Mathew would be the head of delivery and excellence

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

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Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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