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Mphasis Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,286.8 Chg : -12.35 (-0.54%)
  • Target : 2,210.0 (8.23%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

22 Oct 2022

Client related furlough, mortgage business impacting overall growth…

About The Stock

Mphasis Ltd (Mphasis) offers application services, BPO and infrastructure services, BFSI, technology, communication & logistic services.

  • The company’s direct revenue increased 35.7% YoY on a reported basis and 34.4% in CC terms in FY22
  • OCF, EBITDA of 75% and double digit return ratio (with RoCE of 20%)
Q2FY23 Results:

Mphasis reported muted Q2FY23 results.

  • Direct revenue grew 2% QoQ in CC terms
  • EBIT margins were flat at 15.3%
  • TCV wins continued to be strong with US$300 mn+ during the quarter
What should Investors do?

Mphasis’ share price has grown by ~3.1x over the past five years (from ~₹ 650 in October 2017 to ~₹ 2042 levels in October 2022).

  • We change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price and Valuation

We value Mphasis at ₹ 2210 i.e. 20x P/E on FY25E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strategy to mine top 10, 20 clients, adding high potential new logos, rise in deal sizes & expansion in Europe bodes well for long term growth
  • Further, the management stability, improving deal size, market share gains via vendor consolidation, low legacy exposure to drive 11% CAGR in revenues over FY22-25E
  • Improving revenue trajectory, higher offshoring, pricing and automation to boost EBIT margins (+100 b ps to 16.3% in FY22-25E)
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Mphasis, in our IT coverage we like LTI.

  • Industry leading growth and healthy margins prompt us to be positive on the stock
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 5,525

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 8,843.5 9,722.3 11,961.5 14.5 13,994.3 15,208.2 16,376.6 11.0
EBITDA 1,650.4 1,802.9 2,117.6 16.9 2,421.0 2,783.1 3,046.1 12.9
EBITDA Margins (%) 18.7 18.5 17.7 - 17.3 18.3 18.6 -
Net Profit 1,184.8 1,216.8 1,430.9 12.6 1,653.9 1,913.8 2,090.9 13.5
Diluted EPS (|) 63.1 64.4 75.6 - 87.4 101.1 110.5 -
P/E (x) 32.1 31.3 26.7 - 23.1 20.0 18.3 -
RoE (%) 20.3 18.6 20.6 - 22.0 23.4 23.4 -
RoCE (%) 22.3 21.8 23.7 - 24.5 26.1 26.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Revenue growth of the company was muted for a second successive quarter with revenue of US$440.3 million (mn), up 1% QoQ while in CC terms growth was 1.8% QoQ. In rupee terms, revenues came in at | 3,527 crore, up 4% QoQ
  • The company indicated that revenue growth in the quarter was impacted by the following factors: a) earlier than expected furloughs from a key client & b) higher than expected ramp down in the mortgage business due to macroeconomic uncertainties. The company also mentioned that a client has a history of furlough in Q2 due to its annual closure but this time there was some unexpected element to it. Normal furloughs are expected to hit in Q3
  • Direct revenue (93.7% of mix) grew 4.2% QoQ while DXC revenues (4.6% mix) increased 1.1% QoQ. In CC terms, direct revenue grew 2% QoQ while DXC declined 1% QoQ
  • Geography wise US region (82.2% of mix) reported growth of 3.8% QoQ while EMEA (8.2% of mix) grew 5.2% QoQ. In CC terms, the US region reported growth of 20.4% YoY. Excluding DCX, growth was 21.4% YoY while Europe reported growth of 21.4% YoY
  • Vertical wise, banking (54.2% of the mix) reported growth of 5.7% QoQ despite the decline in mortgage business. Others vertical reported strong growth of 8% QoQ. In CC terms, BFS reported growth of 15.7% YoY while TMT, logistics & others reported growth of 33%, 16.5% & 34% YoY, respectively
  • The company reported flat EBIT margins for the quarter at 15.3%. Mphasis indicated that the margins of the company were stable even after muted revenue growth as result of the reduced SG&A expenses during the quarter. The company maintained its EBIT margin guidance in the band of 15.3-17% for FY23
  • Mphasis indicated the following levers for margin improvement in H2: a) improvement in utilisation, b) getting revised price from clients, c) improvement of off shore mix, d) reduction in ESOP expenses and e) reduction of amortisation expenses
  • The TCV (new bookings) continues to remain strong despite macroeconomic factors. The company for the fourth successive quarter got new TCV wins of US$300+ mn with a TCV of US$302 mn, up 25.3% YoY. Mphasis also indicated that it won two large deals of TCV worth US$110 mn. The company indicated that it is winning majority of the large deals in verticals other than BFS indicating its growth in those verticals. Mphasis also added five new clients during the quarter
  • The company’s total headcount during the quarter declined by 23 to 36,876 during the quarter. Mphasis during the quarter added 156 net new employees to its technology services team taking the total headcount to 23,596
  • Mphasis indicated that its growth strategy for the future is based on the following 3 points: a) Tech enhancement: The company indicated that it will improve delivery capability by investing to accelerate its hyper scaler ability; b) Vertical Focus: Mphasis will improve its end-to-end capability in BFS & Insurance & c) geography expansion: The company indicated that it will expand its presence in the Europe & Canada market by investing & offering its capabilities in BFS & insurance space
  • The company indicated that it is seeing normal furlough in H2. However, the pace of change of the mortgage business is unprecedented and recovery is likely once macro issues settle. The company said it is in constant conversation with its client to assess any macro related impact
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 3,520 2,869 22.7 3,411 3.2 Revenue growth impacted by furloughs in key client & higher than expected ramp down in mortgage LOB
Employee expense 2,532 2,043 23.9 2,394 5.7  
             
Gross Margin 988 827 19.6 1,017 -2.8  
Gross margin (%) 28.1 28.8 -73 bps 29.8 -174 bps  
Other expense 371 329 12.7 417 -11.1  
             
EBITDA 618 498 24.1 600 3.0  
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.5 17.3 20 bps 17.6 -4 bps  
Depreciation & amortisation 80 66 21.9 80 0.6  
EBIT 538 432 24.4 520 3.3  
EBIT Margin (%) 15.3 15.1 21 bps 15.3 2 bps Margin were flat despite muted revenue growth due decline in SG&A expenses
Other income (less interest) 17 28 -37.2 13 39.2  
PBT 555 460 20.7 533 4.1  
Tax paid 137 118 15.6 131 4.3  
PAT 418 342 22.5 402 4.1  

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Sujay Chavan, MMS Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

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Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

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Road No 7, MIDC,

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