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Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,156.4 Chg : 94.30 (4.57%)
  • Target : 1,200.0 (20.0%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

31 May 2022

Steady performance, retains capital efficiency focus…

About The Stock

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is a conglomerate with a presence in auto, IT, financial services, logistics, hospitality and real estate among others. At standalone level it is India’s largest tractor manufacturer (~40% FY22 market share) & second largest CV, fourth largest PV maker (24.7%, 7.4% FY22 market share)

  • FY22 standalone revenue mix – ~62% automotive, ~34% tractors
Q4FY22

The company posted healthy Q4FY22 results

  • Standalone net sales rose 12.4% QoQ to ₹ 17,124 crore
  • EBITDA margins at 11.4% were down 50 bps QoQ
  • Standalone PAT for the quarter came in at ₹ 1,291.9 crore down 4.5% QoQ
What should Investors do?

The stock price has grown at ~6% CAGR from ~₹ 710 levels in May 2017, outperforming the wider Nifty Auto index.

  • We retain BUY rating amid healthy demand prospects across M&M’s product profile, its focus towards capital efficiency and EV proactiveness
Target Price Valuation

We value M&M at SOTP-based target price of ₹ 1,200 (9x FY24E standalone EV/EBITDA; 25% holdco discount to investments).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We build 14.4%, 19.2% total volume, sales CAGR, respectively, in FY22-24E on new product launches, EV product development, healthy order book
  • With operating leverage benefits at play, mix normalisation (high growth in relatively low margin automotive business) & focus on optimising cost; we expect 12.6% EBITDA margins and ~13% standalone RoCE by FY24E
  • Consistent focus on prudent capital allocation (>18% RoCE vision), aggressive EV launch plans (UVs, LCVs and 3-W) remain structural positives
  • Stepping up the capex spend to build capacities in response to robust demand prospects. Value creation initiatives to limit net cash outflow
New Stock Ideas

Apart from M&M, in our OEM coverage we like Tata Motors.

  • Long term value drivers (EV transition, deleveraging & FCF focus) intact
  • BUY with target price of ₹500

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 53,614.0 45,487.8 45,041.0 57,431.0 5.4 71,996.8 81,668.9 19.2
EBITDA 6,639.6 5,798.0 6,506.1 7,042.9 9.3 8,368.6 10,319.3 21.0
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.4 12.7 14.4 12.3 - 11.6 12.6 -
Net Profit 4,796.1 1,330.4 268.6 4,932.4 6.2 5,427.0 6,822.8 17.6
Adjusted Net Profit 4,818.6 2,190.4 942.5 5,097.5 9.6 5,427.0 6,822.8 15.7
EPS (₹) 40.2 11.2 2.3 41.3 - 45.5 57.2 -
P/E 24.9 89.7 444.2 24.2 - 22.0 17.5 -
RoNW (%) 14.1 6.4 2.7 13.1 - 12.6 14.2 -
RoCE (%) 12.3 8.8 9.5 9.3 - 10.8 13.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q4FY22 Results:

  • M&M’s automotive revenues rose 26.4% QoQ to | 12,072 crore amid 29% volume increase (1.56 lakh units) & 1.7% ASP decline to | 7.74 lakh/unit. Tractor revenues declined 17.1% QoQ to | 4,327 crore tracking 22% volume decline (72,826 units) and 5.8% higher ASPs at | 5.94 lakh/unit
  • Standalone margins posted QoQ decline of 50 bps to 11.4%, primarily on the back of ~160 bps gross margin contraction (vs. our estimate of ~100 bps contraction) however substantial savings were realised in employee expense which for the quarter were down 140 bps. Automotive segment posted ~190 bps increase in EBIT margins QoQ to 5.6% while tractor segment EBIT margins dipped ~160 bps QoQ to 15.7%
  • PAT for the quarter came in at | 1,291.9 crore down 4.5% QoQ. It was supported by lower effective tax rate and exceptional gains
  • The company declared a dividend of | 11.55 per share for FY22. It continues to remain net debt free on standalone basis with CFO for FY22 at ~| 7,100 crore with corresponding FCF at ~| 3,850 crore
  • M&M’s performance is not strictly comparable on YoY basis as it has restated base quarter numbers pursuant to absorption of MVML into M&M

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The company counts itself as a market leader in the SUV space with Q4FY22 revenue market share pegged at 17.8%, also company continues to dominate electric 3W space with 73%+ market share
  • On farm equipment side the company regained its market share to 40% levels and was up ~180 bps YoY aided by launch of new products
  • Automotive volumes lost due to cancellation during the quarter on account of chip shortages & elongated waiting period amounted to 10-15% of order book (at same levels as of Q3FY22). However, current order book is strong at >1.7 lakh units including 78,000+ units for XUV700 vs ~70,000 in Q3FY22. Thar has achieved milestone of getting ~1 lakh bookings till date
  • M&M remains committed towards it RoCE target of 18% through greater focus on cost control measures & better profitable growth at its international farm subsidiaries. Further to create value, M&M has identified 7 business (of which 3 are listed i.e. Mahindra Holidays, Lifespace & Logistics) to reach $1 billion Market cap valuation in coming 2-4 years from earlier target of 3-5 years.
  • Demand from rural area remained strong in April & May amid healthy realisations from wheat but suffered post announcement of export ban on wheat. However, the management expects the tractor industry to grow in single digits in FY23
  • Waiting period for its flagship product XUV 700 is ~18-24 months with the company receiving booking at a run-rate, which is ~2x the production run-rate at ~10,000 bookings per month
  • The company to unveil its first born electric concept on August 15, 2022

  • With respect to recent deal with VW group agreement was for purchase of EV related components to assure good quality parts and faster launch of EV. Further details on agreement would be unveiled in August

  • As planned company is witnessing good traction in exports particularly from south Asian market

  • CAFÉ norms are expected to increase diesel vehicles cost further by ~| 10,000-12,000

  • Semiconductor shortage to continue going forward for some time and with launch of new gen Scorpio order book is seen to further rise

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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