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CIE Automotive India Ltd>
  • CMP : 485.8 Chg : 1.15 (0.24%)
  • Target : 380.0 (21.79%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 Nov 2022

Steady performance, healthy demand outlook …

About The Stock

Mahindra CIE (MCI), part of the Spain-based CIE Automotive Group, is a multi-technology, multi-product automotive component supplier.

  • CY21 consolidated revenue mix – Europe 49%, India 51%.
  • Forging is ~59% of consolidated sales (86% in Europe).
  • In India it derives 37%/31%/16%/8% of sales from PV/2-W/tractors/M&HCV
  • In Europe it derives 36%/39%/9% of sales from PV/MHCV/Off highway
Q3CY23

MCI posted steady Q3CY22 results

  • Consolidated net sales came at ₹2,731 crores, flat QoQ.
  • EBITDA margins stood at 11.6%, up 36 bps QoQ.
  • PAT stood at ₹171 crores down 9.4% QoQ
What should Investors do?

MCI stock price has grown ~5% CAGR past 5 years (from ~₹ 244 levels in Oct 2017), outperforming the Nifty Auto index.

  • We retain BUY, tracking healthy demand prospects, strong CFO/FCF yields (~10/5%) & healthy return ratios matrix (ex-goodwill RoIC: ~30%+).
Target Price and Valuation

Introducing CY24E, we now value MCI at 10x CY23E EV/EBITDA for revised target of ₹ 380 (earlier target: ₹ 325)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With volume growth on the anvil in the Indian operations amidst benefits flowing from the robust product profile at M&M & MSIL, as well as recovery in Europe, sales at MCI is expected to grow at 14.7% CAGR over CY21-24E
  • With benign RM prices, negotiations with customers for pass through of hiked cost & operating leverage at play amid MCIs efforts on costs efficiency, margins are seen improving to 12.8% by CY24E with corresponding RoCE seen at ~14% (optically muted due to high goodwill in B/S, RoIC at ~30%+)
  • Persistent efforts to de-risk the base business amid global thrust on electrification with order book gaining traction in EV specific as well as EV neutral products (MCI stands to benefit from transition towards Hybrids)
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides MCI, in our ancillary coverage, we like Apollo Tyres.

  • India CV revival beneficiary, focused on debt reduction, higher return ratios

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹335

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials CY19 CY20 CY21 5 year CAGR (CY16-21) CY22E CY23E CY24E 3 year CAGR (CY21-24E)
Net Sales 7,907.8 6,050.1 8,386.7 9.5 10,863.7 11,773.7 12,671.0 14.7
EBITDA 967.7 501.6 1,017.3 13.9 1,256.9 1,463.5 1,616.8 16.7
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.2 8.3 12.1 0.0 11.6 12.4 12.8 0.0
Net Profit 353.8 106.4 392.9 18.4 687.2 813.9 918.6 32.7
EPS (₹) 9.3 2.8 10.4 - 18.2 21.5 24.3 -
P/E 33.4 111.0 30.1 - 17.2 14.5 12.9 -
RoNW (%) 7.7 2.2 7.7 - 12.0 12.8 13.0 -
RoCE (%) 10.2 2.7 9.4 - 11.6 13.4 14.2 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q3CY22 Results:

  • Mahindra CIE reported steady performance in Q3CY22. On consolidated basis, net sales for the quarter stood at ₹2,731.1 crore, flat QoQ. EBITDA for Q3CY22 stood at ₹316.9 crore with EBITDA margins at 11.6%
  • Revenues from Indian operations grew 12% QoQ with steady state 15% EBITDA margin profile while revenues from European operations de-grew 9% with 160 bps decline in EBITDA margins at 10%.
  • With rise in share of revenues from India (55% for the quarter vs. 50% in Q2CY22), blended margins witnessed 36 bps expansion to 11.6%.
  • Margins at European operating came in muted due to high energy prices.
  • Management commentary on demand outlook was robust with intent to grow ahead of industry going forward.

Q3CY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • During the quarter CIE bought M&M’s share keeping in mind high growth prospects in Indian operations. Post this acquisition CIE share increased from 63.44% to 65.71%.
  • Management guided about strong growth forecast for auto industry in India (except tractors) whereas European region witnessed some setbacks due to war & inflationary scenarios. However, demand from European region is still strong with minimal cancellations of orders.
  • Muted performance in european operations was due to 20 days’ plant closure during Q3CY23 as well as high metals & energy prices which impacted margins as well as top line for the company. Company is engaging with customers for pass-through of this hike and is expected to be recovered with a quarterly lag.
  • Management guided about no constrains in terms of availability of energy as of now in European region. However, some rumours suggest shortfall of gas in Germany.
  • Management expects European PV industry to grow by 7-8% in CY23.
  • Metacastello a material subsidiary of company is witnessing good demand traction from US market and is working towards fulfilling pending orders (particularly in PV space). Metacastello has received large orders for EV powertrain in previous quarters which are yet to be delivered.
  • CV forging business in EU region witnessed some softness due to seasonality factor & is less profitable in opinion of management & is currently focusing more on PV which is expected to grow by 7-8% for CY23.
  • Company continues to focus on its local supply model (i.e. produce and sell in same country) to save logistics cost & mitigate currency exchange risk.
  • Company expects some consolidation of forging players to happen in Europe due to economic uncertainty, thereby benefitting MCIE.
  • Tractor industry in India remained muted on back of muted farm sentiments where as other segments including 2W witnessing recovery.
  • Company is supplying components to largely all new launches of M&M & Maruti Suzuki and has also won new business from Tata Motors& Royal Enfield (Brand at Eicher Motors)
  • Management remains committed towards incurring ~5% of T/O as capex.
  • Net debt as on date stood at ~₹750 crores of which ~₹650 crores relates to European operations.
  • Exports from India stood at ~12-13% of T/O & management remains committed towards 20% target. However, the company is witnessing strong domestic demand & would like to focus on the same.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets) and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.            

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