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Just Dial Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,025.8 Chg : -70.60 (-6.44%)
  • Target : 715.0 (19.17%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

18 Oct 2022

Looking to reach pre-pandemic paid campaigns in FY23…

About The Stock

Just Dial (JDL) generates revenues from advertisers on various subscription and fee-based packages.

  • Reliance Retail Ventures now holds a 67% stake in JDL
  • JDL’s launch of B2B platform will be a key revenue driver in the long run
Q2FY23 Results:

JDL reported strong numbers in Q2FY23.

  • Revenues grew for a second straight quarter with 10%+ QoQ growth to ₹ 205.3 crore
  • Paid campaigns were up 4.2% QoQ and realisation was up 6.2% QoQ
  • Adjusted (ex-Esop) EBITDA grew 360 bps QoQ to 9.5% to ₹ 19.5 crore
What should Investors do?

JDL’s share price has grown by ~1.5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 412 in October 2017 to ~₹ 600 levels in October 2022).

  • We change our rating from HOLD to BUY
Target Price and Valuation

We value JDL at ₹ 715 i.e. 23x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Continued increase in paid campaigns as well as realisation growth
  • Ramp up in sales team is expected to drive revenue growth in both B2B and B2C businesses
  • JDL will be a key beneficiary of this shift of advertising to digital medium and underpenetrated MSME (B2B) segment. The paid subscribers as a percentage of total MSME is just 1.5%
  • JDL’s B2B and B2C platforms are well placed to capture this demand leading to revenue CAGR of 21% in FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from JDL, in our IT coverage we also like Affle.

  • Key beneficiary of digital advertising spend

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,295

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 953.1 675.2 647.0 -2.1 826.6 982.2 1,150.8 21.2
EBITDA 272.9 154.9 -2.2 - 77.1 156.1 234.7 -
EBITDA Margins (%) 28.6 22.9 -0.3 - 9.3 15.9 20.4 -
Net Profit 272.3 214.2 70.8 - 80.5 196.1 259.8 54.2
EPS (|) 42.0 33.0 8.5 - 9.6 23.5 31.1 -
P/E 14.3 18.2 70.8 - 62.3 25.6 19.3 -
RoNW (%) 21.1 16.9 2.0 - 2.3 5.4 6.9 -
RoCE (%) 25.7 19.0 2.5 - 2.9 6.5 8.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of result and conference call highlights

  • The company reported revenue of | 205.3 crore for the quarter, up 10.6% QoQ & 31.6% YoY. This was the second consecutive quarter the company reported 10%+ QoQ growth. Paid campaigns were at 503,840, which grew 4.2% QoQ while realisation grew 6.2% QoQ. The company reported that top 11 cities contributed ~42% of the paid campaigns and 60% of revenue. JDL reported deferred revenue of | 378.6 crore, up 7.1% QoQ & 13.3% YoY
  • The company reported that unique quarterly visitors were 156.5 million (mn), up 5.9% QoQ. JDL indicated that ~10% of the traffic was from inorganic route while organic contributed ~90% of the traffic. The company reported that 84.5% of the traffic was from mobile based while desktop & voice based were 11.6% & 3.9%, respectively. JDL’s ratings and reviews increased 2.7% QoQ & 11.5% YoY to 137.1 mn while total app downloads were 31.7 mn, up 1.6% QoQ & 7% YoY
  • The company indicated B2B traffic contributed ~25-30% of total collections and also indicated that realisation from B2B customers is 10-15% higher than average realisations. The company indicated that the sales team for B2B customers is ~650+ now and expects higher growth in collections from B2B customers as the sales team gets more efficient
  • JDL reported an EBITDA of | 17 crore while adjusted to Esop charges, EBITDA was at | 19.5 crore. The adjusted EBITDA margin increased ~360 bps QoQ to 9.5% due to a decline in SG&A expenses
  • The company reported other income of | 56.5 crore including profit on sale of investments of | 140.4 crore offset by MTM loss on bond yields of | 89.8 crore. The company reported PAT of | 52.2 crore with PAT margin of 25.4%
  • JDL, during the quarter, incurred advertising expenses of | 5.2 crore and indicated that it spent ~| 11-12 crore on advertisement expenditure in H1. The company had earlier indicated that it planned to spend ~| 60 crore on advertisement expenditure on core business in FY23. However, now it has indicated that it will spend ~| 30-32 crore on advertising expense in FY23. JDL also indicated that the decision for additional advertisement spend on new initiatives will be taken as required
  • The company indicated that it has withdrawn all discounts from November 2021 onwards and has increased price in Tier 1 cities by 12-15%. JDL also indicated that it has increased price across select geographies & monthly payment option contributed ~71% of the paid campaigns. The company indicated that realisable value of signups is | 230-275 crore, which implies that the core business growth is strong despite price increase
  • The company hired 731 net new employees in Q2 taking the total sales team headcount to 11,332 employees. JDL indicated that it plans to continue to ramp up the sales teams keeping in mind its revenue target for the next two fiscal years. The company indicated that as its sales employees get more tenure their productivity increases, which improves monetisation, which eventually leads to margin improvement
  • The company indicated that its cost of revenue (sales team salaries & incentive to sales team/ direct revenue) was 42% pre Covid. Currently, the same is at 45-46%. The company indicated that it wants to improve the Cost of revenue to its pre Covid level & as the revenue increases the employee cost to revenue will taper off going forward
  • The company indicated that its core business growth is strong & it expects the paid campaigns to be back to its pre Covid level in next two quarters. With the ramp of the sales team, JDL expects strong revenue growth, going forward, and with moderation in expenses the company expects continued margin improvement. The company is aiming at achieve EBITDA margin 25-30% in the long term. JDL also indicated that any additional margins above the guided band would be utilised on strengthening team
  • The company indicated that some of new initiatives are being capitalised on and the same is in the pilot project stage. JDL reported that it incurred | 22.2 crore expenses as intangibles under development on the new initiatives in H1 and expects to incur similar amount in H2. The company indicated that it will capitalise on the above amount as the projects go live
  • The company mentioned that Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) programme by the government is for digitalising MSMEs. The program is in pilot stage and creating digital catalogue for the seller side app. JDL indicated that the programme is mutually beneficial for it and MSME companies and is evaluating a plan to see how they can fit in the ONDC programme
  • JDL has cash & investment of | 3,818.9 crore as on September 2022
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue         205.3        156.0          31.6        185.6            10.6 Revenue aided by growth in campaigns as well as realisations
Employee expenses        162.5        118.8          36.8        149.0              9.1  
             
Gross Margin          42.8          37.2          15.0          36.7            16.8  
Gross margin (%)          20.8          23.9  -301 bps           19.7  110 bps   
Other expenses          25.8          16.5          56.6          28.3             (8.7)  
             
EBITDA          17.0          20.7        (18.1)            8.4          102.5  
EBITDA Margin (%)            8.3          13.3  -502 bps             4.5  376 bps   
Depreciation & amortisation            7.7            7.2            7.7            7.0            10.5  
EBIT            9.3          13.6        (31.7)            1.4          558.2  
EBIT Margin (%)            4.5            8.7  -419 bps             0.8  376 bps   
Other income (less interest)             55          34.0          61.6        (61.3)         (189.7)  
PBT             64          47.6          35.0        (59.8)         (207.3)  
Tax paid             12            9.9          22.2        (11.5)         (205.1)  
PAT             52          37.7          38.3        (48.4)         (207.9) Profitability improved due to higher other income which was impacted in Q1 due to MTM losses on treasury portfolio

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Sujay Chavan, MMS, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

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Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

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