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JK Tyre & Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 393.4 Chg : -15.60 (-3.81%)
  • Target : 180.0 (5.88%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

07 Nov 2022

Steady base; anticipating margin recovery in H2FY23

About The Stock

JK Tyre (JKT) is a leading tyre manufacturer with annual capacity pegged at 6.2 lakh MT. It serves various automotive segments via India, Mexico plants with dominance in truck/bus radial (TBR) space domestically.

  • FY22 segment mix – truck/bus ~55%, PCR ~26%, 2-W, 3-W ~4%
  • FY22 channel mix – aftermarket ~59%, OEM ~20%, exports ~21%
Q2FY23

The company reported steady performance in Q2FY23.

  • Consolidated net sales were up 3% QoQ to ₹ 3,756 crores.
  • EBITDA margins rose 10 bps QoQ to 7.9%
  • Consequent PAT stood at ₹ 51.3 crore up 38% QoQ
What should Investors do?

JKT’s share price has grown at ~3.5% CAGR over the past five years (~₹ 145 levels in Nov 2017), in line with the Nifty Auto index

  • With high leverage on B/S & limited scope of b/s de-leveraging in the near term amid fresh capex spend we maintain HOLD rating on the stock.
Target Price and Valuation

Building in RM price decline benefits, we now value JKT at ₹180 i.e. ~5.6x EV/EBITDA on FY24E basis (previous target price ₹ 135)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Focusing towards product premiumisation & technologically advanced range of products like smart tyre, puncture guard tyre & EV specific tyres offering ultra-low rolling resistance and higher efficiency.
  • Cooling off in input prices i.e. natural rubber & crude derivatives to aid in margin recovery as well as healthy cash flow generation.
  • Reduction of debt on B/S (term loans) amid normalized working capital need
  • Building in the visible positives, we build 14.7% FY22-24E net sales CAGR with margins seen at 10.6% in FY24E amid focus on export markets along with continued focus on premiumisation of products.
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides JKT, in our auto coverage we like Apollo Tyres.

  • Focused on sweating of assets, calibrated capex spends and RoCE focus

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 335

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 10,369.9 8,724.9 9,102.2 11,983.0 9.3 14,881.5 15,765.1 14.7
EBITDA 1,114.1 987.6 1,306.3 1,073.3 -1.1 1,329.6 1,676.1 25.0
EBITDA Margins (%) 10.7 11.3 14.4 9.0 - 8.9 10.6 -
Net Profit 176.4 150.8 319.4 210.0 -11.0 297.6 507.1 55.4
EPS (₹) 7.8 6.1 13.0 8.5 - 12.1 20.6 -
P/E 21.9 27.8 13.1 19.9 - 14.1 8.3 -
RoNW (%) 7.7 6.5 11.9 7.4 - 9.6 14.4 -
RoCE (%) 9.2 7.4 11.8 8.1 - 10.4 13.3 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q2FY23 Results

  • Among geographies, growth for the quarter was led by mexican geographies. India revenues increased 3% QoQ to | 3,149.5 crore while Mexico operations posted increase of 7% to | 720.9 crore.
  • Management informed about domestic demand to continue to grow on the strength of improved economic activities, sustained focus of government on infrastructural spends.
  • On the margin front, gross margin remained flat sequentially and was on expected lines. India EBIT margins recovered ~21 bps QoQ to 4.9%, with Mexico EBIT margins up ~14 bps QoQ to 7.1%

 

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Total installed capacity stood at 6.2 lakh MT i.e ~3.3 crores tyres annually with corresponding capacity utilization for H1FY23 stood at 90%.
  • Company witnessed highest ever quarterly sales in Q2FY23 as it also benefitted from customer’s preference for UV as UV have larger tyre size.
  • Management guided about strong demand from OEMs amidst strong festive season and easing of chip shortages, also CV industry to witness cyclical upswing in medium term, whereas tractor to witness good demand amidst healthy monsoons.
  • Cavendish revenue for Q2FY23 was at ₹982 crores up 34% YoY vs ₹942 crores at Q1FY23, Margins at Cavendish stood at 6.3% and PBT at -₹18 crore (loss due to forex charge). Mexican operation Q2FY23 revenue stood at ₹721 crores, up 25% YoY vs ₹673 crores in Q1FY23. Operating profit for the same stood at ₹65 crores up 13% YoY vs. ₹60 crores in Q1FY23.
  • Export from India stood at ₹514 crores in Q2FY23 vs. ₹458 crores in Q1FY23.
  • Utilization at JK Tornel, Mexico stood at 90% and management will conduct debottlenecking activities in near future, however currently company have sufficient capacity to meet rising demand. Also JK Tornel remained largest supplier to large MNCs like Walmart in Mexico and enjoys leadership position in PCR segment.
  • JKT took ~16% price hike in Mexican market in last 15 months and can take ~1-2% more in coming quarters. Price hike in Indian operations for the quarter stood at ~3%. RM cost increased by ~4% in Q2FY23, however company is witnessing some softening with benefits to flow from Q3FY23.
  • Over medium to long term it expects its margin to stabilise ~ 11-12% mark
  • Company retained its capex guidance as in Q1FY23.
  • In export market growth was primarily led by North American markets amongst 105 countries company exports to.

  • Anti-dumping duty imposed by government of India on Chinese imported TBR tyre has been extended till December 2022 vs earlier date of September 2022. It is currently under review

  • Company remains committed towards repayment of ~40% of long term debt by FY25E

  • Company has developed complete range of electric vehicle (EV)-specific Smart radial tyres for all categories of trucks, buses, LCVs and passenger cars in India & is also partner with Delhi Govt for supply of tyres for E-Buses.

  • Volume growth for the quarter in Indian operations was flat QoQ.

  • Management guided about under recovery to extent of 7-8% still in system and will focus on premiumisation to offset the same.

Disclaimer

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I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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