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Birlasoft Ltd>
  • CMP : 613.1 Chg : -5.70 (-0.92%)
  • Target : 255.0 (-4.14%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

03 Feb 2023

Client issue, furlough impacts Q3; leadership changes may bring in some recovery

About The Stock

Birlasoft Ltd (Birlasoft) has strength in non-ERP digital businesses like CRM, B & data analytics, app development & enterprise solution.

  • The company caters to manufacturing, BFSI, energy & utility and life sciences
  • Debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of >19%)
Q3FY23 Results

Birlasoft reported weak numbers for Q3FY23.

  • Revenue was flat QoQ in CC & declined 0.3% in dollar terms
  • Adjusted EBITDA margins excluding provision feel ~180 bps QoQ to 13%
  • Signed TCV of US$231 mn during the quarter
What should Investors do?

Birlasoft’s share price has grown by ~2.3x since its demerger (from ~₹ 114 in February 2019 to ~₹ 266 levels in February 2023).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Birlasoft at ₹ 255 i.e. 13x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Change in management, hiring of new vertical leaders likely to recoup some lost revenue momentum
  • Revenue growth is expected to be achieved via client mining, cross sell, multi-year deals, expansion in Europe & APAC and focus on niche verticals
  • Expect rupee revenues to grow at 10.1% CAGR over FY22-25E
  • Expect EBITDA margin to be at 15.1% by FY25E on the back of easing of supply side challenges, higher utilisation, etc
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Birlasoft, in our IT coverage we also like Newgen.

  • Strong logo additions, increasing annuity revenues & GSI opportunity to aid revenue growth at 18.7% CAGR in FY22-25E
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 460

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net Sales 3,291.0 3,555.7 4,130.4 17.4 4,751.7 5,084.3 5,516.4 10.1
EBITDA 391.9 529.2 640.1 27.8 525.0 756.1 834.2 9.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 11.9 14.9 15.5 - 11.0 14.9 15.1 -
Net Profit 224.3 320.8 463.6 19.5 342.5 499.2 554.3 6.1
EPS (|) 8.1 11.6 16.3 - 12.1 17.7 19.7 -
P/E 32.8 23.1 16.0 - 21.2 14.6 13.1 -
RoNW (%) 11.9 14.7 17.9 - 15.4 19.9 19.6 -
RoCE (%) 17.0 19.8 23.1 - 19.7 26.1 25.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Revenue for the quarter was flat QoQ while in dollar terms revenue declined by 0.3% to $148.4 mn. In rupee terms, the company reported revenue of
    | 1,221.9 crore, up 2.5% QoQ
  • Geography wise, US (83.1% of mix) declined 0.7% QoQ while Europe continue to grow reporting growth of 7% QoQ. Vertical wise manufacturing and E&U declined 2.6% QoQ & 1.7% QoQ, respectively, while BFSI & Lifesciences reported growth of 5% & 1.3% QoQ, respectively. The company indicated that furloughs & deal delays impacted E&U vertical
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin excluding provision declined 180 bps QoQ to 13% while reported EBITDA margin of the company was 0.6%. The company indicated that apart from the provisions margins of the company were impacted by higher-than-expected furlough impacts, investment in new leadership & impact of some residual wage hikes
  • The company has informed that Birlasoft Solutions Inc. a subsidiary of the company, has received an intimation that Invacare Corporation, a customer in the US, has filed for bankruptcy on February 1, 2023. The company has made a provision of US$19 mn or | 151 crore against receivables from this client till that date on billed, unbilled as well as contractual assets which may include cost of third-party licenses, subcontractors etc. Birlasoft also indicated that it is taking legal opinion and clarity on i) whether the work can be continued with this client after February 1, 2023 ii) whether the client can be billed for the services to be provided hereafter iii) any additional provisions to me made, which may come up in Q4 and beyond iv) resources on this project can be shifted to other projects etc v) Bankruptcy filed by the client for US operations while Birlasoft has been working with this client on global profile, so what happens to the work relationship outside US. The company also mentioned that it expects zero revenue from this contract in Q4 and have taken a hit of 3% on Q3 revenue. Birlasoft also indicated that provisions may continue at least in Q4 till further clarity emerges. The company also mentioned that this was fixed price contract signed in 2019. Hence, despite only two months of delay in billed payment (unbilled extra) the amount may look large due to nature of contract wherein the company has spent on efforts and the cost was front loaded. The company also mentioned that none of its other accounts have been facing any issues
  • Birlasoft also mentioned that performance for the quarter was impacted due to higher-than-expected furloughs, projects put on hold by few of its clients for the quarter and investments in new leaderships. The company indicated that longer term technology spend trends are intact as customers continue to spend on cloud transformation. It also indicated that customers are also increasingly spending on customer experience & cost optimisation but deal pipeline is now skewed towards cost take out deals due to high inflation scenario
  • The company indicated it will focus on growth in top accounts where it is likely to increase investments while continuing to strengthen its capabilities such as digital, data & analytics which are working well for it. Birlasoft also mentioned that it has a good chunk of legacy business. Hence, it would like to take up these new capabilities to its core verticals such as BFSI and manufacturing to aid growth going forward. The company also mentioned that it is now looking for sustained quarterly growth, going forward, before it can think of reaching US$1 bn revenue as indicted by earlier CEO
  • The company indicated that its growth momentum in BFSI continues to be good since it has been in a leadership position in couple of processes in this space and it is looking to capitalise the same for further growth acceleration. Birlasoft also mentioned it also has a good set of clients in BFSI space and growth in some top accounts helping them

 

  • The company also mentioned it has appointed new leaders in hi-tech and manufacturing verticals and is hopeful of good growth in this vertical from the medium-term perspective. Birlasoft also welcomed new leaders in life sciences as well as energy verticals while indicating that some more leaders are in the pipeline. The company also mentioned that it is seeing growth in both legs of manufacturing in terms of discretionary and non-discretionary spending while it indicated that there could be slower growth for couple of quarters but it is likely to rebound as the cycle reverse
  • The company indicated that ex-provisions, it is looking at sequential growth in both revenues and profitably in Q4. Birlasoft mentioned that since it is investing into leadership building as well as strengthening of few capabilities, it is likely to take a hit on EBITDA margins in the near term and indicated that it may take few quarters to reach 15% EBIT margin. The company also indicated that they aspire to expand margins in the medium term on easing of supply side pressure
  • The company indicated that currently is focusing on growing is organic capabilities & organic business & it will evaluate the opportunity of inorganic growth at later stage if it feels the need of it. The management indicated that it not actively looking for any inorganic opportunity
  • The company continue to win steady deals & indicated that its pipeline remains strong. Birlasoft for the quarter reported TCV of US$231 mn, up 39.2% QoQ including new deal wins of US$ 102 mn, down 26.1% QoQ.
  • The company also mentioned that TCV it won for the quarter includes three large deals & it aspires to have more sticky revenue from clients, going forward, especially from top 20 accounts. The company also mentioned that its legacy business is likely report flattish revenue growth in FY23 while growth from new age and digital business is likely to be industry leading
  • The company’s revenue from its Top 5/10/20 clients grew by 1.7%/1.2% & 0.4% QoQ respectively
  • The company’s LTM attrition declined 190 bps QoQ to 25.5%. The company indicated that it expects attrition to moderate further and will provide a tailwind lever for margin improvement. The company’s utilisation during the quarter improved by 160 bps QoQ to 84%
  • The company’s net headcount during the quarter declined by 228 to 12,530. Out of the 228, the net decline in technical employees was 182 taking the total technical employees to 11,386
Variance Analysis
 
   Q3FY23   Q3FY22   YoY (%)   Q2FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 1,222 1,072 14.0 1,192 2.5 CC growth was flat on QoQ due to higher than expected furloughs, hold on some projects
Employee expense 732 607 20.6 694 5.5  
             
Gross Margin 490 465 5.3 498 -1.7  
Gross margin (%) 40.1 43.4 -330 bps 41.8 -170 bps  
Other expense 483 302 59.6 322 49.9  
             
EBITDA 7.4 162.8 -95.5 176.4 -95.8  
EBITDA Margin (%) 0.6 15.2 -1458 bps 14.8 -1419 bps EBITDA margins adjusted to |151 crore were at 13%, impacted by higher SG&A expenses
Depreciation & amortisation 21 19 11.9 21 1.6  
EBIT -14 144 -109.5 156 -108.8  
EBIT Margin (%) -1.1 13.4 -1455 bps 13.1 -1418 bps  
Other income (less interest) 7 10 -29.3 -9 -179.8  
PBT -7 154 -104.4 147 -104.6  
Tax paid 10 40 -76.0 32 -70.3  
PAT -16 114 -114.4 115 -114.2  

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

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Andheri (East)

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