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Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd>
  • CMP : 990.3 Chg : -7.25 (-0.73%)
  • Target : 590.0 (13.24%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

05 Aug 2022

Numbers dwindle; US traction key for margins, return ratios…

About The Stock

Alembic Pharma operates in international generics (US:31% & ex-US: 15% in FY22), domestic branded (36% in FY22) and API (18% in FY22).

  • Domestic business has 1.5% of market share of IPM with three brands in the top 300. Going ahead, emphasis is on the specialty segment
  • The company has invested ~ ₹ 1800 crore in recent years in facilities geared mainly towards US formulations. As of Q1FY23, it has filed 237 ANDA and has 167 approvals with 110 launches in the US
Q1FY23

Alembic’s numbers were a miss on revenues led by lower traction in US due to price erosion across the portfolio and high stocking in Q4FY22

  • Sales de-grew 5% YoY to ₹ 1262 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 15 crore, down 94% YoY with margins at 1.2%. Adjusted EBITDA for Aleor’s impact was ₹ 115 crore with margins at 9.1%
  • Adjusting for ₹ 115 crore impact of Aleor, adjusted PAT was at ₹ 36 crore
What should Investors do?

Alembic’s share price has grown by ~1.3x over the past five years (from ~₹ 530 in August 2017 to ~₹ 680 levels in August 2022).

  • Downgraded from HOLD to REDUCE rating on the stock amid 1) poor offtake in US amid persisting price erosion, 2) impending USFDA clearances of three plants and 3) likelihood of ~ ₹ 350 crore expenses post commercialisation of F-2, F-3 and F-4 plants affecting profitability
Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 590 i.e. 22x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 26.9

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Commercialisation of international formulation plants F2 (oncology injectable), F3 (general injectable & ophthalmic) & F4 (general oral solids)
  • Aleor acquisition and ramp up in dermatology portfolio, further amortisation of Aleor’s intangible assets
  • US performance in backdrop of price erosion. Resolving USFDA issues for timely new launches to improve margins amid additional expense of ~₹ 350 is expected to be incurred on commercialisation of F2, F3 and F4 facility
  • Consistency of performances in Indian branded formulations 
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Alembic, we like Ajanta Pharma.

  • Ajanta Pharma is a focused player in branded with focus on launching maximum number of first time launches with new drug delivery system
  •  BUY with a target price of ₹ 1495

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 3,934.7 4,605.7 5,393.1 5,305.8 11.1 5,498.1 6,052.4 6.8
EBITDA 873.6 1,223.0 1,557.6 874.2 7.3 715.9 1,028.9 8.5
EBITDA margins (%) 22.2 26.6 28.9 16.5 - 13.0 17.0 -
Net Profit 592.7 872.8 1,178.1 545.7 6.4 300.5 529.0 -1.5
EPS (|) 30.2 44.4 59.9 27.8 - 15.3 26.9 -
PE (x) 25.2 18.0 12.7 24.5 - 44.5 25.3 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 17.5 13.1 9.3 15.3 - 18.7 12.6 -
RoCE (%) 19.6 21.0 24.2 10.6 - 6.5 10.5 -
RoNW (%) 21.8 27.1 23.0 10.4 - 5.6 9.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Weak revenues and margins

  • Revenues declined 5% YoY to | 1262 crore. Domestic formulations were flat YoY at | 480 crore while domestic business grew 20% YoY adjusting for Covid sales in Q1FY22. US generics was also flat YoY at | 367 crore, mainly due to price erosion across the portfolio and high stocking in Q4FY22. International formulations sales de-grew 8% YoY at | 182 crore while APIs also declined 16% YoY to | 233 crore mainly impacted by lower volumes. EBITDA margins declined 1647 bps YoY to 1.2% mainly due to higher other expenditure (Aleor’s recurring R&D expenses of |100 crore). Adjusted EBITDA margins were at ~ 9.1%. EBITDA declined 94% YoY to | 15 crore. Adjusted EBITDA for Q1FY23 was | 115 crore. Alembic posted loss of | 66 crore versus adjusted PAT of | 164 crore in Q1FY22. Adjusted for Aleor’s impact, PAT was at | 36 crore
  • Alembic’s numbers were a miss on revenues on the back of lower traction in the US and RoW markets. On the profitability front, Q1 was impacted as intangible assets (R&D development expenses) of Aleor Dermaceuticals worth | 115 crore were charged off during the current quarter. India branded business continues to perform well on back of 23% YoY growth in specialty segment and likelihood of recovery in acute segment. US is weighing on numbers as the company is witnessing double-digit price erosion and squeezing of base business. New launches and commercialisation of new facilities earmarked for the US market and consistency of performances in Indian branded formulations are key levers for the company

 

Q1FY23 earnings conference call highlights

  • Intangible assets (R&D development expenses) of Aleor Dermaceuticals of | 115 crore (| 100 crore in other expenses and | 15 crore in depreciation) were charged off during Q1 after thorough review of current market conditions in the US Generic business. Residual intangible assets to be written off is now at | 40 crore
  • US: Q1FY23 was challenging. Alembic switched to a new logistics provider in Q4FY22 and distributors had held extra inventory last quarter. In the US, new base is around US$50 million. In the US, price erosion (low double-digits) is across the board in generics. Alembic has reached ~15% market share in Formoterol (CMO product). The company launched five products in Q1 and plans to launch five to six products in Q2, 15-18 in FY23. Remediation measures are going on at F-3 facility
  • India: Ex-Covid topline India branded business grew 20% YoY. Ex-Azithromycin IPM de-grew by 1% while Alembic grew by 12% YoY. Alembic has started to increase investments from Q4FY22 onwards and expects increased traction to be visible from coming quarters. The management is expecting Acute portfolio (~ 118 crore in Q1FY23) to gain traction from Q2FY23.
  • R&D in absolute terms to remain at | 650-700 crore in coming years. Majority of R&D is earmarked for US and some for other regulated markets
  • The management indicated that input cost and freight cost have gone up significantly. Around | 180-200 crore of cash expense along with | 150 crore of depreciation is likely to hit P&L on commercialisation of all the three plants. The management is more focused on getting these plants (F-3, F-2 and F-4) operational and generate revenues as soon as possible. Part of F-2 (oncology oral solids) plant is already cleared by USFDA while from other part (oncology injectables) Alembic has begun fillings and inspection has been triggered
  • The management indicated that margins are likely to remain under some pressure until realisations from US improve

 

Variance Analysis


  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 1,262.1 1,355.2 1,326.0 -4.8 1,415.7 -10.8   Significant miss on revenues on back of lower traction in the US and RoW markets
Raw Material Expenses 378.3 365.9 385.1 -1.8 385.8 -2.0    
Gross Margin (%) 70.0 73.0 71.0 -93 bps 72.7 -272 bps   Alembic witnessing double digit price erosion in US
Employee Expenses 290.4 284.6 289.9 0.2 277.2 4.8    
R&D Expenditure 146.4 169.4 167.2 -12.5 161.8 -9.5    
Other Expenditure 432.5 311.7 250.1 72.9 430.9 0.4   Q1FY23 includes | 100 crore of Intangible assets (R&D development expenses) of Aleor Dermaceuticals being charged off
EBITDA 14.7 223.6 233.8 -93.7 160.1 -90.8   Adjusted EBITDA for Q1FY23 was | 115 crore
EBITDA (%) 1.2 16.5 17.6 -1647 bps 11.3 -1015 bps   Adjusted EBITDA margins were at ~ 9.1%
Interest  8.8 4.0 2.1 316.6 6.7 31.2    
Depreciation 67.1 69.0 53.2 26.2 123.1 -45.5   Total | 15 crore higher in amortisation expense on count of Aleor
Other Income 1.1 10.2 4.1 -73.3 10.3 -89.5    
PBT before EO & Forex -60.1 160.8 182.6 -132.9 40.6 -248.2    
Forex & EO 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
 PBT  -60.1 160.8 182.6 -132.9 40.6 -248.2    
Tax  -1.5 33.8 34.2 -104.4 -1.7 -13.3    
PAT before MI -58.6 127.0 148.4 -139.5 42.3 -238.6    
Adjusted Net Profit -65.9 142.7 164.5 -140.0 35.5 -285.8   Adjusted for Aleor’s impact, PAT was at | 36 crore
Key Metrics                
Domestic Formulation 480.0 461.8 481.0 -0.2 449.0 6.9   Ex-Covid India branded business grew 20% YoY
US 367.0 463.4 369.0 -0.5 557.0 -34.1   YoY decline amid price erosion across the portfolio and high stocking-up by distributors in Q4FY22
RoW 182.0 206.9 197.0 -7.6 188.0 -3.2    
APIs 233.0 223.2 279.0 -16.5 222.0 5.0   YoY decline due to lower volumes


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