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Dr Reddys Laboratories Ltd>
  • CMP : 6,056.4 Chg : -201.25 (-3.22%)
  • Target : 4,960.0 (18.10%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

24 Jun 2022

To embark upon Horizon 2 by leveraging on Horizon 1

About The Stock

Dr Reddy’s (DRL) portfolio includes pharmaceutical generics, APIs, custom pharmaceutical services, biosimilar and complex formulations.

Investor Meet Takeaways

Dr Reddy’s is embarking on the next phase of its strategy in alignment with changing dynamics of industry, emerging opportunities.

  • The goal is to leverage Horizon 1 business growth levers and drive productivity to invest in Horizon 2 businesses
  • Horizon 1 will be core driver in the short to medium term mainly comprising 1) Generics, 2) API, 3) Branded Generics, 4) OTC and 5) Biosimilars
  • Horizon 2 is earmarked for long term mainly comprising 1) Immuno-Oncology NCEs, 2) Biologics & CGT, 3) Nutraceuticals, 4) CDMO (small and large molecules), 5) Disease management, 6) D2C and 7) Digital services
  • The company aspires to 1) maintain double digit sales growth, 2) 25% EBITDA margin profile and 3) 25% RoCE, while keep investing in Horizon 2
What should Investors do?

Dr Reddy’s share price grew ~1.7x in past three years.

  • We maintain BUY as the so called transition to Horizon-2, although directional, provides well thought out strategy for the next five years
Target Price Valuation

We value Dr Reddy’s at ₹ 4960 i.e. 22x FY24E EPS of ₹ 218 + NPV of ₹ 163.4 for gRevlimid.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • US: Focus on remunerative portfolio with 1) 40% of pipeline being injectable/sterile, 2) 25+ complex products and 3) select Biosimilars and Complex generics earmarked for US launch
  • Europe: Building scale in select countries while leveraging existing portfolio to do first-to-market launches. Increased focus on Biosimilars, complex generics and high value generics launches from global staple
  • India: 1) Scaling up existing brands, 2) creating differentiated portfolio by both organic & inorganic means and 3) Diving productivity by data analytics
  • Emerging Markets: DRL is leveraging its existing portfolio in other geographies and seeks growth in Rx and OTC. It is targeting GPO tenders in China and has 17 filings pending for approval, FY23 target of 15
  • API: 1) Backward integrating 70% molecules to benefit gross margins, 2) value added API offerings for B2B sales and 3) focused approach in Discovery and CDMO services to biotech and originator companies
Alternate Stock Ideas
  •  Apart from Dr Reddy’s, in healthcare we like Sun Pharma.
  • Higher contribution from specialty and strong domestic franchise is likely to change the product mix towards more remunerative businesses by FY23
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1070

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 15,448.2 17,517.0 19,047.5 21,545.2 8.7 23,925.4 26,331.1 10.6
EBITDA 3,151.6 2,466.0 3,869.9 3,767.7 8.8 5,169.7 5,894.3 25.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 20.4 14.1 20.3 17.5 - 21.6 22.4 -
Adjusted PAT 1,906.3 2,026.0 1,951.6 2,128.8 10.5 3,113.6 3,628.0 30.5
EPS (Adjusted) 114.6 121.7 117.3 127.9 - 187.1 218.0 -
PE (x) 40.8 34.6 36.0 31.1 - 22.4 19.3 -
RoE (%) 13.6 13.0 11.1 11.1 - 13.0 11.0 -
RoCE (%) 10.7 9.6 13.1 13.0 - 14.3 14.7 -
- - - - - - 17.8 20.2 -
Debt / Equity 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 - - - -
- - - - - - 0.1 0.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Investor Meet takeaways

  • Dr Reddy’s is geared for the next phase of its strategy in alignment with the changing context in the industry and emerging opportunities and trends. The management plans to reach 3x patients through 1) leadership in chosen spaces, 2) patient focused innovation and 3) operational excellence to grow in Horizon 1 and build futuristic Horizon 2
  • Horizon 1: Core drivers in the short to medium term mainly comprise 1) Generics, 2) API, 3) Branded Generics, 4) OTC and 5) Biosimilars
  • Horizon 2: Driver in the short to long term mainly comprises 1) Immuno-Oncology NCEs, 2) Biologics and CGT, 3) Nutraceuticals, 4) CDMO (small and large molecules), 5) Disease management, 6) D2C and 7) Digital services
  • The aspiration is to continue 1) double digit revenue growth and 2) maintain 25% EBITDA margin profile and 25% RoCE while keep investing in Horizon 2 opportunities for future. The management guided that ~ 15% of sales could be from Horizon 2 by 2027

Chosen spaces for future business areas

  • North America: Dr Reddy’s has grown at CAGR of 5% from US$862 million in FY19 to US$1003 million in FY22 despite price erosion
    • Horizon 1 – Injectables, retail generics, OTC – private label and brands and direct to patient channels;
    • Horizon 2 – Biosimilars, digital wellness solutions, drug device combinations and immuno-oncology
  • Dr Reddy’s has a pipeline of 175+ products with 90 being filed
    • Total 40% of pipeline comprises injectable/sterile products
    • Also, 25+ complex products across drug-device combos, peptides, long acting injectables and RTUs
    • Advanced stages in multiple platform technologies like particulate systems, microsphere and liposomal, peptides platform, emulsions and suspensions
  • Select products:
    • Complex Generics: Semaglutide, Teriparatide, Octreotide, Liraglutide, Regadenoson and Dasatinib
    • Biosimilars: Pegfilgrastim, Rituximab, Tocilizumab and Abatacept
  • Europe:Dr Reddy’s has grown at a CAGR of 26% from €97 million in FY19 to €192 million in FY22
    • Horizon 1 – Build scale in Germany, UK, Spain, France and Italy, Selective other geographical expansion and first to market launches leveraging current portfolio;
    • Horizon 2 – Branded businesses in branded and OTC space, new spaces like pharmaceutical cannabis and biosimilars
  • Select Products:
    • Complex Generics: Liraglutide, Doxorubicin liposomal
    • Biosimilars: Pegfilgrastim, Rituximab, Tocilizumab and Abatacept
    • Other Generics: Apixaban, Rivaroxaban, DMF and Sacubitril

 

 

 

 

  • India:Dr Reddy’s has grown at a CAGR of 17% from | 2600 crore in FY19 to | 4200 crore in FY22
    • Horizon 1 – Build big brands, chosen therapy areas with differentiated portfolio, productivity is marketing through data analytics;
    • Horizon 2 – Nutraceuticals, OTC, biologics and CAR-T, NCE/NBE, Disease management and Digital ecosystem
  • The management has set an aspirational target to be among top five in India
  • Emerging Markets: Dr Reddy’s has grown at a CAGR of 16% from | 2900 crore in FY19 to | 4600 crore in FY22
    • Horizon 1 – Grow mega brands in Rx and OTC, leverage global portfolio in emerging markets and productivity through S&M excellence;
    • Horizon 2 – Differentiated formulations, nutrition portfolio, biologics, NCE/NBE, disease management and direct to customer
  • Dr Reddy’s aims to do 2-3x sales in China in the next five years. The company is targeting GPO tenders in China. Currently, 17 filings are pending for approval while 15 more are expected in FY23. The management guided to do double-digit filings every year. In Brazil, Dr Reddy’s aims to grow 4-5x in five years with major focus on oncology and institutional business
  • API Business:
    • API: Developing, manufacturing and selling APIs to customers globally. The company aims to backward integrate 70%+ core molecules effecting 500 bps improvement in gross margins in the next five years
    • API+: Institutional & B2B sales of value added offerings. The management aims to increase presence in 60+ countries in the next five years from 25+ currently
    • Discovery + CDMO: Service originator and biotech companies. Serving three of Top five innovators and in-total 120 total biotech companies globally
    • Health access business: Working with public health institutions
  • Biologics: Dr Reddy’s is scaling up to build global biosimilars business in Horizon-1 and CGT and CDMO business in Horizon-2
    • Horizon 1 – Focus area is oncology and auto-immune disease. Total 12 products are in the pipeline in various stages of development while the company expects two assets to enter the clinical phase by FY23 and two others to be scaled up. Dr Reddy’s is building global biosimilar business with Pegfilgrastim already approved in Europe and under review with USFDA while Rituximab is expected to be filed for regulated markets in early 2023. The pipeline opportunity is at US$50 billion of innovator peak sales
    • Horizon 2 – The management is looking to build biologics in two areas of 1) cell and gene therapy and 2) CDMO biologics

Productivity

1)     Operational productivity in the last four years has improved in the following areas – a) API: 35% lower opex as percentage of sales, b) OSD: 39% lower US$/000’ units and c) sterile: 83% lower US$/unit

2)     Efficient operations through first-to-market, lowest cost, best services and accelerated improvements through industry 4.0 technologies

3)     Productivity in sales and marketing using data analytics

 

Innovation

  • In Horizon 2 areas, Dr Reddy’s will look to scale up in immuno-onco NCEs, nutraceuticals and CDMO while investing enter new areas of biologics and cell gene therapy, differentiated formulations, disease management and preventive & primary care platform SVAAS

 

Other Highlights

  • The management has guided for USFDA inspection for FTO-XI plant (new sterile plant) in the first two weeks of July, 2022. Product launch guidance for FY23 in the US was 20-25
  • The management indicated at an increase in investments by 50-100 bps of sales for Horizon 2 (~| 250-300 crore through P&L). R&D expenses are expected to range from 9-10% of sales, going forward. Biosimilar is ~ 25% of R&D expense and is expected to increase over the next few years. About 80% of R&D is likely to be leveraged globally
  • Capex is likely to be in the range of | 1500-2000 crore.

 

 

 

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