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J K Cements Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,863.7 Chg : -83.15 (-2.11%)
  • Target : 2,850.0 (20.25%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

24 May 2022

New capacity to keep growth trajectory intact

About The Stock

With 14.7 MT grey cement capacity, JK Cement is the fourth largest player in North India contributing over 40% of its revenues. The company also has a presence in the western region in Gujarat, Maharashtra and southern region in which Karnataka is a key market for the company.

  • It is also the second largest producer of white cement (0.6 MT) and wall putty (1.2 MT) in India
  • The company is adding another 4 MT integrated cement capacity in the central region that will take its capacity to 18.7 MT by FY23E
Q4FY22

JK Cement’s performance remained below estimates due to miss on the margins. Further exceptional loss w.r.t. UAE subsidiary led to lower profits.

  • Revenues increased 10.5% YoY to ₹ 2269 crore led by 1% YoY growth in the volumes (3.93 MT) and 9.5% YoY increase in realisations
  • EBITDA margins declined 453 bps YoY, 224 bps QoQ to 16.9% (vs. I-direct estimate 18.2%) due to 16% YoY, 1.5% QoQ rise in the cost of production. Blended EBITDA/t came in at ₹ 973/t (down 13.7% YoY, 12.8% QoQ)
  • PAT of ₹ 86.3 crore (down 32% QoQ) was lower than estimates due to impairment loss of ₹ 130 crore pertaining to UAE subsidiary
What should Investors do?

Post recent correction in the stock prices, the valuation of the company has now come down to attractive levels at 11x FY24EV/EBITDA

  • We now upgrade our rating from HOLD to BUY

 

Target Price Valuation
  • We value the company at ₹ 2850/share (i.e. at 13x FY24E EV/EBITDA)
Key Triggers for future price performance
  • In the phase-II expansion, it is adding another 4 MT integrated cement capacity (2.6 MT clinker capacity) and 22 MW power plant with capex of
    ₹ 2970 crore. This would further expand its footprints in UP & MP market
  • Despite capex, net debt/equity to remain stable at 0.8x supported by operating cash flows and some debt repayments over FY22-24E.
  • Expect revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 13.6%/16.2% during FY22-24E led by volume CAGR of 11.3%. PAT CAGR growth expected at 22.5% only if no further impairment comes from UAE subsidiary

Q4FY22 Conference Call Highlights

  • Operated with CU of 92%. Grey cement volume increased 1.1% YoY, 22.4% QoQ to 3.54 MT. Realisations were also higher by 9.5% YoY. However, volumes of white cement were down 2% YoY, 10% QoQ
  • Average fuel consumption cost was at ₹ 9,300/t vs. ₹ 8700/t in Q3. Current fuel mix is at 50% petcoke, 20-25% imported coal. With spot rate of fuel being at elevated levels, fuel cost set to increase further by ₹ 150/t in Q1FY23
  • Despite cost pressure, expect operating margins to improve marginally supported by cement price hikes. Price hike of ₹ 25-35/bag has already been taken in April 2022
  • The new expansion project of 4 MT integrated unit at Panna (including 2 MT GU at Hamirpur and 22 MW WHRS) is likely to come on stream by Q4FY23E. The total capex for the same is ₹ 2,970 crore. Spent till date is ₹ 1,535 crore
  • Overall, the company plans to incur capex of ₹ 1700 crore in FY23E (₹ 1150 crore for Panna, ₹ 150 crore for paints) and ₹ 1100 crore in FY24E (₹ 400 crore for Panna, ₹ 100 crore for paints)
  • Paint business to commence operations from March 2024 onwards
  • On ESG front, the company targets to increase the green power share (i.e. WHRS, solar and other alternative fuels) to increase from current 33% to 75% by 2030
New Stock Ideas

In our cement coverage, we also like UltraTech.

  • It is a market leader with strong brand in the retail segment. It has robust balance sheet and targets to become debt free by FY23E
  • BUY with a target price of ₹8,000/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 4,981.0 5,464.0 6,328.0 7,679.0 15.5 8,561.0 9,902.0 13.6
EBITDA 810.0 1,182.0 1,514.0 1,482.0 22.3 1,457.0 2,002.0 16.2
EBITDA (%) 16.3 21.6 23.9 19.3 - 17.0 20.2 -
PAT 324.0 400.0 603.0 631.0 24.8 666.0 946.0 22.5
EPS (|) 42.0 51.8 99.6 98.5 - 86.2 122.4 -
EV/EBITDA 24.4 17.5 13.3 14.5 - 15.3 11.1 -
EV/Tonne ($) 216.0 174.0 157.0 155.0 - 161.0 134.0 -
RoNW 11.2 12.8 20.6 17.9 - 13.9 16.8 -
RoCE 12.5 16.2 18.6 15.6 - 12.7 16.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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