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Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd>
  • CMP : 144.8 Chg : -2.90 (-1.96%)
  • Target : 260.0 (19.82%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

14 Feb 2023

Weak performance; merger key catalyst ahead

About The Stock

Zee Entertainment (Zee) is one of the largest listed media companies in India, which owns and operates a bouquet of 49 TV channels across 11 languages and also an OTT app Zee5.

  • The company’s TV network viewership share was at 16.2% in Q3FY23 (16.4% in Q2FY23)
Q3FY23

Zee reported a weak Q3FY23 performance.

  • Revenues were at ₹ 2111.2 crore, up 6.7% YoY. Ad revenues declined 15.6% YoY to ₹ 1064 crore, owing to weak ad spending by key segment (FMCG), sports heavy quarter and impact of exit from free to air. Overall subscription revenues grew 13.2% YoY to ₹ 894.4 crore led by 30.7% YoY growth in international subscription (Zee5 driven), and catchup revenues recognition from Siti (₹ 59 crore)
  • EBITDA came in at ₹ 338 crore, down 18% YoY and up 35% QoQ, with margins at 16% (down 482 bps YoY, up 243 bps QoQ)
  • PAT was at ₹ 24.3 crore as it provided for one-time exceptional items of
    ₹ 169 crore. Adjusted PAT, at ₹ 193 crore, was largely in line
What should Investors do?

Zee’s share price has declined by ~62% over the past five years, owing to promoter debt issue and business challenges.

  • We cut our earnings estimates but maintain BUY. Gradual ad recovery and likely merger consummation, remain key triggers.
Target Price and Valuation

We value Zee at ₹ 260, at 18x FY25 P/E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Overall viewership share improvement, which remains sub optimal. Turnaround in some key regional markets like Tamil/Marathi as well as Hindi GEC, where it has lost viewership market share. This would also drive a recovery in margin performance and cash flow generation
  • Consummation of merger with Sony
New Stock Ideas

Besides Zee, we like Inox Leisure in the media space.

  • A play on recovery and consolidation of multiplexes
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 620

Key Financial Summary

(Year-end March) FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR FY17-22 FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR FY22-25E
Net Sales (| crore) 8,129.9 7,729.9 8,189.3 4.9 8,146.2 8,892.9 9,799.0 6.2
EBITDA (| crore) 1,634.6 1,790.1 1,722.1 -2.2 1,264.1 1,645.2 2,155.8 7.8
Net Profit (| crore) 526.5 800.1 964.6 - 463.7 1,010.7 1,404.7 -
Adjusted Nat Profit (| crore) 1,661.5 984.9 1,054.6 -3.9 709.2 1,010.7 1,404.7 10.0
EPS (|) 5.5 8.3 10.0 - 4.8 10.5 14.6 -
P/E (x) 39.5 26.0 21.6 - 44.9 20.6 14.8 -
Price / Book (x) 2.1 2.0 1.9 - 1.9 1.8 1.7 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.1 10.6 11.3 - 15.0 11.6 8.7 -
RoE (%) 16.7 9.4 9.7 - 6.5 8.9 11.4 -
RoCE (%) 13.9 13.7 14.6 - 9.3 12.2 15.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlight and outlook

Challenging ad environment/FTA pullout impact performance

The company indicated that ad growth weakness was owing to exit from FTA and a challenging macro environment impacting ad spends, especially from key segments like FMCG. We also highlight that Q3 was sports heavy and GEC losing ad share was also a likely possibility. Consequently, domestic ad declined 15.8% YoY. The company’s TV network viewership share was at 16.2% (down 20 bps. QoQ). Zee continues to focus on fresh content strategy for viewership improvement in Hindi, Marathi and Tamil. We expect a growth recovery only in FY24. We bake in ~6.3% CAGR in ad revenues in FY22-25E, with major growth recovery from FY24 onwards. Overall subscription revenue growth of 13.2% YoY to | 894.4 crore was owing to 30.7% YoY growth in international subscription (Zee5 led), and catchup revenues recognition from Siti (| 59 crore). We highlight that NTO 2 implementation has been mandated from February, 2023. The company expects subscription revenues to be in healthy single digit post NTO 2 implementation. We bake in subscription CAGR of ~5.5% in FY22-25E with tailwinds largely from Zee5.

Healthy growth for Zee5…

Zee5’s revenues were at | 194.3 crore during the quarter, growth of 33% YoY and ~16% QoQ, driven by strong content slate addition. Zee5 reported operating losses of | 282.2 crore vs. losses of | 276.9 crore in Q2. Zee5 recorded global DAU of 11.5 million and 119.5 million global MAU in December vs. Q2 numbers of 11.3 million and 112.4 million, respectively. Average daily watch time came down to 169 minutes vs. 198 minutes in Q2. The company indicated that the decline in watch time was due to a sharp increase in new users (MAUs), which should normalise gradually ahead. Zee5 saw the launch of 50+ new shows and movies in Q3FY23, including six originals. The company indicated that investment in content (on both OTT and linear TV), marketing, technology and product will continue to capture viewership and engagement share despite near-term revenue headwinds on the ad revenue front. It indicated that capital allocation towards regional movies would remain high. Its aim is to expand movie production with a strong slate of movies across regional languages of Tamil, Telugu, Marathi and Punjabi.

Other highlights

  • Progress on merger with SPNI: The company awaits NCLT approval. A meeting has been convened on February 14, 2023 to hear the lenders’ plea
  • One off items and dues from related parties:
    • One off included | 16.2 crore DSRA related additional liability pertaining to Siti Networks, impairment of Zee Learn NCD | 25.5 crore, | 68.9 crore of merger led expenses. The company also provided against Siti revenues of | 59 crore (on a conservative basis), as the money is either parked in court/FDs in bank as per requirement
    • Receivables from Dish have come down from | 240 crore as of FY22 to | 106 crore in Q3.
  • Other:
    • Cash and treasury investment was at | 670 crore

 

The rebound in market share in Hindi GEC and Marathi/Tamil will be key to overall market share and ad recovery. We cut our earnings estimates but maintain BUY rating. Gradual ad recovery from FY24 and likely merger consummation, remain key triggers. We believe the combined entity will have a strong competitive positioning in both linear and digital segments. We value the stock at 18x FY25 P/E vs. 19x earlier with a target price of | 260/share (| 310, earlier).

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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