BAROMETERS END FLAT AHEAD OF UNION BUDGET; NSE VIX JUMPS 4%

Domestic stocks ended almost flat today as investors remained cautious ahead of tomorrow`s Union Budget, opting to wait and see before making any major moves. Despite early gains, the Nifty50 couldn`t hold onto momentum and closed below 24,550. While some sectors like auto and healthcare saw a rise, others like oil & gas and realty declined. This cautious approach reflects the dual impact of the conservative economic growth projection and recent underwhelming corporate earnings reports. The budget is expected to be positive, but high valuations and potential downgrades in earnings growth keep investors on edge.

The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was down 102.57 points or 0.13% to 80,502.08. The Nifty 50 index shed 21.65 points or 0.09% to 24,509.25.

The broader market outperformed the headline indices. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index jumped 1.27% and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index added 0.83%.

The market breadth was positive. On the BSE, 2093 shares rose and 1923 shares fell. A total of 136 shares were unchanged.

The NSE`s India VIX, a gauge of the market`s expectation of volatility over the near term, jumped 4.13% to 15.44.

Economy:

The Economic Survey that has projected a real GDP growth of 6.5%�7% for FY25. "The Survey conservatively projects a real GDP growth of 6.5%�7%, with risks evenly balanced, cognizant of the fact that the market expectations are on the higher side," said the Economic Survey 2023-24.

The current account deficit for the year is around 0.7% of GDP. The current account registered a surplus in the last quarter of the financial year.

The real GDP in FY24 was 20% higher than its level in FY20, a feat that only a very few major economies achieved, while also leaving a strong possibility for robust growth in FY25 and beyond.

Growth has been inclusive with a reduction in unemployment and multi-dimensional poverty and an increase in labour force participation. Overall, the Indian economy looks forward to FY25 optimistically, anticipating broad-based and inclusive growth.

Inflationary pressures stoked by global troubles, supply chain disruptions, and vagaries of monsoons have been deftly managed by administrative and monetary policy responses, stated the Economic Survey. It added, after averaging 6.7% in FY23, retail inflation declined to 5.4% in FY24.

Numbers to Track:

The yield on India`s 10-year benchmark federal paper was up 0.04% to 6.968 as compared with previous close 6.966.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 83.6675, compared with its close of 83.7000 during the previous trading session.

MCX Gold futures for 5 August 2024 settlement rose 0.05% to Rs 73,027.

The US Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback`s value against a basket of currencies, was down 0.17% to 104.22.

The United States 10-year bond yield fell 0.33% to 4.225.

In the commodities market, Brent crude for September 2024 settlement lost 25 cents or 0.30% to $82.38 a barrel.

Global Markets:

European stocks advanced while most Asian stocks ended lower on Monday following Joe Biden`s decision to withdraw from the US presidential race, which added fresh uncertainty to the situation.

On Sunday, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor.

China attempt to stimulate its struggling economy by reducing interest rates, traders seemed unaffected.

In the meantime, China implemented a reduction in benchmark lending rates during the monthly fixing on Monday. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was decreased by 10 basis points to 3.35% from 3.45%, while the five-year LPR was also lowered by the same margin to 3.85% from 3.95%.

US stocks experienced a decline on Friday due to a chaos caused by a global technical outage resulting from a software glitch, amplifying the existing market unease. The S&P 500 dropped 0.71%, closing at 5,505.00. Nasdaq Composite slid 0.81% to end at 17,726.94. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 377.49 points, or 0.93%, to 40,287.53.

Stocks in Spotlight:

Reliance Industries fell 3.49% after the company�s consolidated net profit declined 4.04% to Rs 17,448 crore in Q1 FY25 as against Rs 18,182 crore posted in Q1 FY24. Gross revenue rose by 11.55% year on year (YoY) to Rs 257,823 crore in the quarter ended 30 June 2024, led by O2C on higher oil & product prices and oil & gas segment with strong growth in volumes.

HDFC Bank added 2.10% after the private lender`s net profit increased 35.33% to Rs 16,174.75 crore on 44.77% jump in total income to Rs 83,701.25 crore in Q1 FY25 over Q1 FY24.

Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) jumped 7.44% after the company�s consolidated net profit rose 11.67% to Rs 248.39 crore on 5.72% increase in revenue from operations to Rs 1,550.23 crore in Q1 FY25 over Q1 FY24.

JK Cement rallied 4.87% after the cement maker`s consolidated net profit surged 65.57% to Rs 185.31 crore in Q1 FY25 as compared to Rs 111.92 crore recorded in Q1 FY24. Revenue from operations rose 1.63% to Rs 2,807.57 crore in Q1 FY25 as against Rs 2,762.63 crore reported in the same period a year ago.

Gravita India soared 9% after the company�s consolidated net profit jumped 29.28% to Rs 67.33 crore on 29.07% growth in revenue from operations stood to Rs 907.86 crore in Q1 FY25 over Q1 FY24.

Dodla Dairy zoomed 7.5% after the dairy product maker reported 85.93% jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 65.02 crore on 10.70% increase in revenue from operations to Rs 911.59 crore in Q1 FY25 over Q1 FY24.

IDBI Bank rose 0.77% after the bank�s standalone net profit jumped 40.44% to Rs 1,719.27 crore in Q1 FY25 as compared to Rs 1,224.18 crore recorded in Q1 FY24. Total income grew by 3.12% year on year to Rs 7,471.25 crore in the quarter ended 30 June 2024.

IPO Update:

The initial public offer (IPO) of Sanstar received 50,64,45,900 bids for shares as against 3,75,90,000 shares on offer, according to stock exchange data at 17:00 IST on Monday (22 July 2024). The issue was subscribed 13.47 times.

The issue opened for bidding on Friday (19 July 2024) and it will close on Tuesday (23 July 2024). The price band of the IPO is fixed between Rs 90 to Rs 95 per share. An investor can bid for a minimum of 150 equity shares and in multiples thereof.

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