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ZF Commercial Vehicle Control System India Ltd>
  • CMP : 13,867.4 Chg : -227.25 (-1.61%)
  • Target : 9,600.0 (19.85%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

24 May 2022

CV cyclical recovery, exports –key catalyst for growth

About The Stock

ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India (ZFCV) (erstwhile Wabco India), now part of the ZF Group, is the market leader in CV braking space and a technology-focused complete solutions provider.

  • FY22 sales channel mix – OEM ~45%, aftermarket ~14%, exports ~41%
  • FY22 product mix: sale of products ~91%, services ~9%
Q4FY22

The company reported a healthy performance in Q4FY22.

  • Total operating income for the quarter came in at ₹ 782 crore, up 20%QoQ
  • EBITDA came in at ₹ 89 crore with margins at 11.4%, up 240 bps QoQ
  • PAT for the quarter was at ₹ 56.6 crore, up 78% on a QoQ basis
What should Investors do?

ZFCV’s share price has grown at ~6% CAGR from ~₹ 5,940 in May 2017, thereby outperforming Nifty Auto index in that time.

  • We retain BUY as ZFCV will be a key beneficiary of CV cyclical recovery amidst new promoter i.e. ZF group’s intent to increase sourcing from India
Target Price Valuation

Upgrading our estimates, we now value the company at ₹ 9,600 i.e. 48x P/E on FY24E EPS (earlier target price ₹ 9,530).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Domestic CV space amid cyclical upswing, greater infrastructure spend by the central government and revived private capex cycle, with ZFCV a key beneficiary of the same. We build ~27.4% sales CAGR over FY22-24E amid proven ability to outperform the user industry
  • New product development including on futuristic technology fronts i.e., connected, autonomous and electric vehicles
  • Gains in content per vehicle amidst introduction of value added products & services (~potential kit value at 3x from current levels of ~₹ 45,000/unit)
  • With thrust to increase localisation (currently placed at ~80-85%) and o/p leverage at play; margins, RoCE seen at ~14,17%, respectively, by FY24E
New Stock Ideas

Besides WIL, in our ancillary coverage we like Apollo Tyres.

  • India CV revival beneficiary, focused on debt reduction, higher return ratios

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 250

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 2,854.2 1,929.6 1,863.5 2,543.3 4.2 3,299.3 4,127.2 27.4
EBITDA 409.9 251.5 205.8 252.6 -5.0 418.0 577.7 51.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 14.4 13.0 11.0 9.9 - 12.7 14.0 -
Net Profit 282.3 158.8 103.8 142.1 -7.8 267.2 379.4 63.4
EPS (₹) 148.8 83.7 54.7 74.9 - 140.9 200.0 -
P/E 53.8 95.7 146.4 106.9 - 56.9 40.0 -
RoNW (%) 15.9 8.4 5.2 6.7 - 11.3 14.0 -
RoCE (%) 23.0 8.5 5.8 7.6 - 13.4 17.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q4FY22 Results:

  • Total operating income for Q4FY22 came in at | 782 crore, up 20% QoQ. EBITDA was at | 89 crore with margins coming in at 11.4%, up 240 bps QoQ. PAT for the quarter ended was at | 56.6 crore, up 78% QoQ
  • On a full year basis; FY22, total operating income was at | 2,543 crore, up 37% YoY; EBITDA was at | 253 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 9.9%, down 110 bps YoY and PAT was at | 142 crore, up 37% YoY
  • For Q4FY22, gross margins were down 80 bps QoQ while savings were realised under other expense, which came in at 11.5% of sales, down 220 bps QoQ primarily tracking higher utilisation levels

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The management expects robust demand in coming years on the back of cyclical upswing in CV space & increased capex spend
  • Demand would primarily rise due to: (i) rise in e-commerce operations, (ii) revival in demand of fleet aggregators, (iii) reopening of schools & workplaces to be fruitful for buses, (iv) scrappage policy by the government to further support underlying demand
  •  The company has received a sizable order from a E-Bus maker for electric compressor with expected content per vehicle of $1,000-1,300 with further ~€400 addition possible due to EBS. Also it is in discussions with various OEM’s for development and adoption of regenerative braking system with application in EVs
  • The company has developed its ADAS system for key players in global as well as domestic market
  • In the aftermarket, it has developed a digital platform for selling its products and have already received 60,000+ orders from the same
  • Exports were impacted due to lockdown in China, higher freight cost and non-availability of containers. For FY22 they were largely flat YoY
  • With respect to the plant expansion for export with capex of ~| 150 crore, construction for the same got delayed and would commence by end of Q2FY22 and will be fully operational in FY24 (August 2023). The company will continue to incur maintenance capex of ~| 100 crore/year as usual
  • With respect to channel wise sales to OEM, it was ~| 366 crore (up 13% YoY) in Q4FY22. Aftermarket sales was ~| 101 crore (up 8% YoY) and exports were at ~| 247 crore (up 31% YoY) in Q4FY22
  • The company has been approved as applicant for PLI scheme. Going forward, it plans to develop new products under PLI scheme. This would potentially help in increasing content value. The company expects ESC & autonomous braking to be high value products in coming time. Currently, the company will focus on air brakes where it remains a market leader and has added BMW in international market as its client
  • The company has developed a few products like brake chamber & automatic slack adjusted, which are developed locally and are gaining good traction in export markets
  • Content per vehicle going forward can potentially jump to 3x from current level of ~| 45,000 due to adoption of ESC, ABS, EBS, etc
  • Management remains committed towards attainment of margins in range of 14-15% with various measures in place to attain the same
  • To remain technologically advance the company is developing connected tech system in coordination with OEMs
  • ZFCV provides various engineering & software related services to its clients is billed on cost plus margin basis ensuring stable margins
  • ZFCV aims to recover ~90% of hiked commodity cost rom OEM & 100% in replacement market & is on right path for the same.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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