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ZF Commercial Vehicle Control System India Ltd>
  • CMP : 13,977.3 Chg : 109.90 (0.79%)
  • Target : 10,530.0 (20.34%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

12 Aug 2022

Technological extension amidst upswing in CV space

About The Stock

ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Ltd (ZFCV) (erstwhile Wabco India), now part of the ZF Group, is the market leader in CV braking space and a technology-focused complete solutions provider.

  • FY22 sales channel mix – OEM ~45%, aftermarket ~14%, exports ~41%
  • FY22 Product mix: Sale of products ~91%, Services ~9%
Q1FY23

The company reported healthy performance in Q1FY23

  • Total operating income for the quarter came in at ₹798.4 crores, up 2%QoQ
  • EBITDA came in at ₹98.7 crores with margins at 12.4% up 100 bps QoQ.
  • PAT for the quarter ended stood at ₹62.4 crores, up 10% on QoQ basis.
What should Investors do?

ZFCV share price has grown at ~9% CAGR from
~₹ 5,500 in August 2017, thereby outperforming Nifty Auto index in that time.

  • We retain BUY on ZFCV amidst introduction of advanced technologies, solutions for electric buses & well charted path on content/vehicle front.
Target Price and Valuation

Upgrading our estimates, we now value the company at ₹ 10,530 i.e. 50x P/E on FY24E EPS (earlier target price ₹ 9,600)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Cyclical upswing in domestic CV space, with ZFCV being a key beneficiary. We build ~27.6% sales CAGR over FY22-24E amidst proven ability to outperform the user industry and advancements on the technology front.
  • Diversified product portfolio following new launches such as connected tech, ADAS components and E-Components, Hill Assist, ESC among others.
  • Uptick in content per vehicle amidst introduction of advanced products & services, shift to superior offering & premiumisation play (~potential kit value at 3x from current levels of ~₹45,000-48,000/unit)
  • With thrust to increase localisation (presently placed at ~80-85%) and O/p leverage at play; margins, RoCE seen at ~15,18% respectively by FY24E.
Alternate Stock Ideas

In the auto coverage, we also like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness 
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,500

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 2,854.2 1,929.6 1,863.5 2,543.3 4.2 3,306.7 4,139.0 27.6
EBITDA 409.9 251.5 205.8 252.6 -5.0 437.6 600.8 54.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 14.4 13.0 11.0 9.9 - 13.2 14.5 -
Net Profit 282.3 158.8 103.8 142.1 -7.8 279.3 399.4 67.7
EPS (₹) 148.8 83.7 54.7 74.9 - 147.3 210.6 -
P/E 58.8 104.5 159.9 116.8 - 59.4 41.6 -
RoNW (%) 15.9 8.4 5.2 6.7 - 11.8 14.6 -
RoCE (%) 23.0 8.5 5.8 7.6 - 14.2 17.8 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q1FY23 Results:

  • Total operating income for Q1FY23 came in at ₹798.4 crores, up 2%QoQ. EBITDA stood at ₹ 98.7 crores with margins coming at 12.4% up 100 bps QoQ. PAT for the quarter ended stood at ₹ 62.4 crore, up 10% QoQ.
  • For Q1FY23, margin performance was real surprise aided by gross margin expansion up 55 bps QoQ (as % of sales) & savings realised under employee expenses down 50 bps QoQ (as % of sales).

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights & Key PPT takeaways

  • Management expect robust demand going forward on back of positive sentiments from CV OEMs.
  • Company has introduced various new products like ADAS, Hill Start Aid, Automatic Traction control, Electronic stability control, Trailer Electronic Breaking System, connected digital solutions, Electric vehicle related products among others finding application in M&HCV space with great potential increase in kit value.
  • Current Content per vehicle is ~₹45,000 with ADAS to increase it by ₹25,000. EBS would command ~₹30,000 delta over traditional ABS and would save energy in EVs.
  • Company’s new Hill Start Aid along with Automatic traction control can be equipped in existing trucks equipped with ABS without any additional parts and can provide additional kit value of ₹3,000.
  • Company’s new facility at Qragadam would be operational in H2FY24.
  • Capex for FY23/FY24 would be ~₹120 crores/~₹170-180 crores.
  • Connectivity solution would be sold to OEM for fees against hardware; also company would be receiving subscription fees for online service for initial 2 years from OEM post 2 years same will be paid by fleet operators.

  • EV products are mostly developed by ZF CV India and its new facility at Oragadam would be for producing technologically advanced products as listed in PLI scheme. With respect to localization braking components are localized with efforts in progress towards localizing other products also

Disclaimer

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I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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