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State Bank of India>
  • CMP : 785.7 Chg : 12.60 (1.63%)
  • Target : 615.0 (16.04%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

07 Aug 2022

MTM mars overall earnings; outlook steady…

About The Stock

SBI is a public sector bank and also the largest bank in India with a balance sheet size of over ~ ₹ 50 lakh crore.

  • Strength in retail portfolios and best operating metrics in the PSU banking space
  • Large subsidiaries, strong outlook adding value to the banks
Q1FY23

MTM mars overall earnings; NPA largely steady QoQ

  • NPA largely steady as GNPA & NNPA stood at 3.9% & 1.0%, slippage ratio inched up to 1.38% vs 0.99% in Q4FY22
  • NII up 12.9% YoY, NIMs declined QoQ by 13bps, C/I ratio rose to 61.9%
  • Provision down 56% YoY; PAT down 6.7% YoY at ₹ 6068 crore
  • Gross advances up 14.9% YoY and deposits up 8.7% YoY; CASA at 45.3%
What should Investors do?

SBI’s share price has surged over 1.8x in the past five years. We believe overall strength in lending franchise, provision buffers and healthy guidance are positives. Improving return ratios with RoE at ~12% and RoA at ~0.7-0.8%, offers long term comfort on the stock.

  • We retain our BUY rating on the stock.
Target Price and Valuation

We value the bank at ~1.2x FY24E ABV and subsidiaries at ~₹ 192 per share to arrive at a revised target price of ₹ 615 from ₹605 earlier

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Credit growth guidance of ~14-15% on the back of healthy demand pipeline to aid business growth and overall performance.
  • Gradual improvement in margin, steady operational efficiency coupled with adequate provision buffer to aid earning momentum
  • Improving RoE trajectory to aid improvement in valuations
  • Unlocking of subsidiaries value to act as positive surprise
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides SBI, in our coverage we also like Axis Bank

  • Strong liabilities franchise, adequate capitalisation and healthy provision buffer to aid business growth as well as earnings trajectory
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 970

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR _(FY22-24E)
NII 883.5 980.8 1,107.1 1,207.1 11.0 1,365.4 1,648.6 16.9
PPP 538.8 681.4 715.5 678.7 8.0 748.3 967.8 19.4
PAT 8.6 144.9 204.1 316.8 232.4 344.3 393.5 11.5
ABV (|) 174.0 203.2 243.3 282.6 - 320.8 361.6 -
P/E 563.6 32.7 23.2 14.9 - 13.7 12.0 -
P/ABV 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.9 - 1.7 1.5 -
RoA 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.7 - 0.7 0.7 -
RoE 0.5 6.4 8.4 11.9 - 11.6 11.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

 

  Q1FY23 QFY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 31,196 32,258 27,638 12.9 31,198 0.0 Flat QoQ due to decline in margins
NIM (%) 3.0 2.7 2.9 10 bps 3.2 -13 bps  
Other Income 2,312 8,527 11,803 -80.4 11,880 -80.5 Mainly impacted due to MTM loss
               
Net Total Income 33,508 40,786 39,441 -15.0 43,078 -22.2  
Operating expense 20,756 20,894 20,466 1.4 23,361 -11.2  
PPP 12,753 19,892 18,975 -32.8 19,717 -35.3  
Provision 4,392 9,500 10,052 -56.3 7,212 -39.1 Credit cost improved by 18bps YoY at 0.61%
PBT 8,361 10,392 8,923 -6.3 12,504 -33.1  
Tax Outgo 2,292 2,650 2,419 -5.2 3,366 -31.9  
PAT 6,068 7,742 6,504 -6.7 9,139 -33.6 MTM mars overall earnings
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 1,13,272 1,11,523 1,34,259 -15.6 1,12,023 1.1 NPA steady sequentially
NNPA 28,258 29,566 43,153 -34.5 27,966 1.0  
Advances 2815249 2734240 2431908 15.8 2733966.59 3.0 Driven by retail & corporate segment
Deposits 4045696 4093086 3720987 8.7 4051534.12 -0.1 CASA up 6.5% YoY at 45.3% 

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The management would continue to focus on credit offtake, maintaining its leadership position and improving CASA ratio (via customer acquisition and strengthening relationship with existing customers). Credit growth guidance at ~15% YoY. Margins to witness uptick from Q2 FY23, Q3FY23 onwards
  • Growth in foreign loans was primarily led by syndicated loans and trade finance (in the US and UK)
  • AFS book was at | 6.31 lakh crore with 60% in G-sec & 23% in highly rated corporate bonds. MTM booked until ~7.45%. In FY23, the bank has redemption of | 83000 crore from AFS book and total redemption of | ~1.5 lakh crore
  • MTM losses impacted RoA which declined by 9bps YoY to 0.48% and RoE declined by 203bps YoY to 10.1%. Excluding MTM impact, notional RoA and RoE would be 2.9% and 18.6% respectively.
  • Standard assets provisions negative due to write back | 1595 crore on account of Covid restructuring
  • Personal loans average ticket size is | 5.79 lakh of which 95% is given to customers maintaining salary account (of which 85% is government employees, 5% would be large corporate)
  • Total | 9700 crore slippages breakup: SME | 3000 crore, Agri | 2700 crore, retail | 2353 crore. Of total slippages, | 2800 crore has been recovered till now
  • In Q4FY22, the bank had interest on income tax refund of | 600 crore, which was not there in Q1FY23. This had an impact on margin trajectory
  • Most of the EBLR loans are linked to repo rate. It gets re priced on first of the following month. Share of BB & below book increased QoQ to 13% as majority of them are state government loans, which are not rated


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